Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009


Prediction Changed
9:58 PM 10/05/2009

Constituency Profile

Green Party
Emery, Jodie Joanna
Heed, Kash P.
BC Refederation Party
Stevano, Andrew
Yiu, Gabriel

OPPAL, Wally
(Approx. 95% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

DIX, Adrian
(Approx. 5% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 05 11 Nick L
Gabreil Yiu was lucky his opponent is not Wai Young. As his predict, he can win about 300 to 500 votes
09 05 11 atomicfrog
Yiu does not have good support in the Chinese community. He used to be a reporter in a local Chinese FairChild radio station until he was fired or he left. Not sure what happen there. The CHinese are traditionally very reluctant to vote NDP, so Heed of the BC Liberal should win by a landslide over Yiu.
The ?Chinese voting Chinese? strategy will NOT work for Yiu this time, major reason is that most of the Chinese knows where he comes from and will not fall for what he says.
09 05 04 Globe and Mail
Former New Democrat backs Liberal candidate
Bernie Simpson says he has 'no axe to grind with the provincial NDP,' and that former police chief is best equipped for job
April 30, 2009 at 9:48 AM EDT
VICTORIA ? Former police officer Kash Heed, locked in a tough campaign to win Vancouver-Fraserview, yesterday picked up an unusual endorsement. A former New Democratic MLA for the riding called Mr. Heed the best choice to send to Victoria.
Bernie Simpson yesterday said he thinks the Liberal candidate, Mr. Heed, the former chief of the West Vancouver police and a veteran Vancouver officer, is best equipped to handle the issues of crime and the economy that are of concern in the riding.
Mr. Simpson said he had ?no axe to grind with the provincial NDP,? but thinks Mr. Heed is a better candidate than Gabriel Yiu, a Chinese-language media commentator and businessman running for the New Democrats.
?[Mr. Heed's background] is impeccable in terms of his credentials in the area of public safety,? said Mr. Simpson, who won the riding as a New Democrat by 2,179 votes in 1991. He served a single term as MLA. Mr. Simpson, a lawyer, was named to the Order of Canada for his work with charitable causes and the multicultural community.
Of Mr. Yiu, he said: ?I am sure he is a capable person, but is he the right person? No.?
He also said he was impressed with Mr. Heed's ability to work with both parties.
Mr. Simpson said he left the provincial party 15 years ago, and has since joined the federal Liberals.
?I feel the provincial Liberal Party is the best party to handle the issues the province is confronted with,? he said. ?You have to be pro-business in this type of economy, and the Liberal Party is. It's fine to develop the social safety net and programs and the NDP is interested in doing that, but you also have to create the wealth to implement social programs. I believe the provincial Liberal Party is in the best position to create that wealth.?
Mr. Simpson was scheduled to declare his support publicly last night. He said he also supports Moira Stilwell, the Liberal candidate for Vancouver-Langara.
He said he endorsed Ms. Stilwell because he has known her for years, and Mr. Heed because members of the candidates' organization asked him to do so.
Mr. Yiu said he did not see the relevance of Mr. Simpson's endorsement.
?I don't see Bernie Simpson in the neighbourhood, riding or party at all, so I don't think it's going to have much impact,? he said, noting he has collected his own endorsements but is not inclined to publicize all of them. ?It sounds a little weird.?
Mr. Heed is seeking to enter politics in the riding most recently held by Wally Oppal, the Liberal Attorney-General. Mr. Oppal, who won the seat in 2005, has decided to run in Delta South, where he lives.
Mr. Heed does not live in the riding, but worked there for many years as a police officer.
09 04 30 Bobby King
Bernie Simpson endorsed Kash Heed tonight in Vancouver. Simpson was the NDP MLA for Vancouver-Fraserview from 1991-1996.
The NDP can not even keep their own voters let alone get new ones.
09 04 08 binriso
Obviously with the nomination of Kash Heed, the Liberals have a good candidate here and the recent crime spree will probably put him over the top. Frankly its all about image and the fact that the Liberals are putting in a police chief to run gives the image they are tough on crime, which is actually more valuable than actually being tough on crime, sadly (otherwise it would not be that big of an election issue if there wasnt much crime, which is an issue the BCLIBS can exploit more easily than the NDP.)
The Liberals should probably win here, even if they lose provincially.
Kash Heed is probably Kash Money in Vancouver Fraserview.
09 04 04
There are a couple factors why this leans BCLiberal right now:
1) The Chinese community has traditional been reluctant to vote NDP.
2) Gabriel Yu is not exactly a popular candidate.
3) The BCLiberals are leading by double-digits over the NDP provincially.
However, a lot also depends on who the BCLiberals run. If Wai Young, they have a solid shot at it. She has the name recognition from the federal election, and came just 20 votes from defeating campaign titan Ujjal Dosanjh, so she is no longer a campaigning rookie and will likely mount a very effective campaign.
09 03 28 Nick L
Gabriel Yiu will lost about 1800 votes if Wai Young represent BC Liberal. It is quite a strategy war in this riding. Gabriel Yiu wanted to win the seat by shifting 1000 Chinese Voters from BC Liberal. But Wai Young there, he can get nothing. The Happiest people with cheering will be Ujal.
09 03 08 Globe and Mail
Oppal gambles on running in Delta South
March 6, 2009 at 4:39 AM EST
B.C. Attorney-General Wally Oppal will soon announce he is switching ridings in the coming provincial election, The Globe and Mail has learned.
Mr. Oppal will run in Delta South, the riding in which he has lived for several years. He now represents Vancouver-Fraserview.
The move is sure to spark speculation that it paves the way for former West Vancouver police chief Kash Heed to run for the Liberals in Mr. Oppal's old riding. Mr. Heed surprised many recently when he announced he was stepping down as police chief after just 18 months on the job.
Mr. Oppal's move is considered somewhat of a gamble.
Residents are upset over a number of issues, but two in particular: an unsightly power line installed last year that cuts a swath through the centre of the town and the potential negative health effects of the wires, which residents want to be buried underground.
Residents are also angry about the construction of a new perimeter road to accommodate truck traffic, which is expected to increase with the expansion of a nearby container port.
Mr. Oppal, a star in Premier Gordon Campbell's cabinet, is well aware of the issues he'll be facing as a candidate for the governing party.
However sources indicate Mr. Oppal was convinced of the move after seeing two internal party polls that made him confident about his chances.
The former Supreme Court of British Columbia judge will face tough opposition from former Delta councillor Vicki Huntington, who will be running as an independent.
Ms. Huntington nearly won as an independent in the last provincial election, but against a much weaker Liberal candidate.
She was courted by both the Liberals and the NDP to represent them in the May election.
Mr. Oppal is expected to campaign on the promise that he is far more likely to successfully address residents' concerns as a member of the government than would an independent MLA.
09 02 19 DL
There is increasing speculation that Oppal won't run again. With this having been close last time and the NDP running a stronger candidate - it should be an easy pickup.
09 01 19 bc politics expert
with the ndp candidate Gabriel Yiu very well known and respected in the chinese community (45% of the riding) running against wally oppal who lives far out of the riding (in south delta) and his stonewalling of questions about the basi,virk scandal as ag and the indo canadian pop being only 11% which largely went for ravinder gill in 05 and the bcliberal win by about 1100 votes Gabriel Yiu should be able to win an even larger share of the chinese vote than wally did this riding should go to the ndp come may 12

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