Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009


Prediction Changed
12:42 PM 17/01/2009

Constituency Profile

Elmore, Mable
Lee, Syrus
Green Party
Warkentin, Doug

(Approx. 95% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

OPPAL, Wally
(Approx. 5% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 05 11 Nick L
The lastest news is that Vancouver Fire Fighters Union 18 supported Syrus Lee also The leaders of Philopino and East Indian supported supported him too. So I guess Syrus can win 700 votes.
09 05 09
Even though this is a traditional BC NDP riding, I'm going to put it in the TCTC column. While Lee is not the strongest candidate, Elmore is not exactly strong either, and she does not have the name recognition that David Chudnovsky had. Elmore's Filipino origin does not necessarily give her a significant advantage over Lee, because Filipinos lean more the conservative side and may be uncomfortable with Elmore's staunch left-wing views.
09 05 07
syrus lee is a very weak candidate, mable elmore is also not the strongest candidate for the ndp either, but this is east vancouver, this is ndp holyland, the words east vancouver and bc liberal party do not mix, this riding will never go bcliberal again.
09 05 05 Jason
It seems like Mable Elmore is gradually losing some ground. Just newly announced today from the Syrus Lee campaign was the endorsement from respected and well-known Filipino community leader, Tom Avendano. This is a huge blow to Elmore, who early on counted on the support of Mr. Avendano. No doubt anyone should underestimate the organising power of the NDP, but my guts tell me this is going to be a surprise tight race that the media will scramble to cover on election day.
But I hear from many voters living in this riding have been unhappy about the last 4 years of David Chudnovsky as MLA, because he never appeared in public and did nothing to ensure the community police were on the beat-- compared to his own predecessor, Patrick Wong, who always made sure community police got the funding to make Kensington's streets safer and the community was more vibrant. Seems like Syrus might win this one, but not with a serious challenge from the Elmore camp.
09 04 20 ArmchairPundit
Don't be so quick to put this one in the NDP column.
Elmore likely has more skeletons in the closet here, and this is a decidedly middle-class riding, not a militant, unionista one.
Last time out the NDP won by 7 points with a more moderate candidate. With the Libs so far ahead in the polls in the Lower Mainland, a slip-up or two from Elmore will deliver this upset to the Liberals on election day.
09 04 04 gorman
I'm not so sure the NDP have this one in the bag. They've nominated a pretty kooky, far-left, out-there candidate, who's already gotten into some trouble over radical past comments. That can be a fatal weakness in the Youtube era, and I have no doubt the Liberals are already combing through Mabel Elmore's past appearances to find some more material they can use to embarass the NDP. I predict the NDP will be left playing defence in a seat they should win easily. Still have to give them the edge right now, but if the campaign starts to go the Liberals' way, this one could be in play.
09 03 23 vancouver politics expert
Mable Elmore and the ndp take this one in a cake walk, just like David Chudnovsky did in 05 he had 50% of the total vote, this is solid ndp territory as with all of east vancouver, Gregor Robertson and vision nailed this area in the civic election, and syrus lee is just a token chinese candidate to get the chinese vote which didn't work in '05 with patrick wong
09 01 17 Predictor
If the If the federal election is any indication, this seat is staying with the NDP. Federally this was once consider, back in the 90s, to be the safest Liberal seat in Vancouver (the federal Kingsway riding was formed by piecing together the strongest Liberals polls in the surrounding area), and it went heavily NDP last October. Consider this was once the seat of the NDP premier and the healthy margin last time, easy NDP hold.

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