Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009

Vancouver-Mount Pleasant

Prediction Changed
9:39 PM 13/01/2009

Constituency Profile

Green Party
Boychuk, John T.
Kwan, Jenny Wai Ching
Communist Party of BC
Marcus, Peter
Wiebe, Sherry Darlene

KWAN, Jenny
Vancouver-Mount Pleasant
(Approx. 99% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 04 30 k4
Jenny Kwan will take the riding. However, the Green vote will spike a bit here. The demographic is changing. Fewer working class/immigrant families, more money, substantially higher home values than 10-15 years ago. Judging by the signs in certain sections of this riding, this could be a place where the Green Party does very well in the future. However, outside of Strathcona-and North Commercial Drive, Kwan/NDP still dominates to the same degree she/they always have. It will stay safely NDP for some time to come, including May 12. Look for a Green vote in the range of what it was in 2001 or maybe slightly higher.
09 04 23
Jenny Kwan is a very popular and competent MLA. She will take this in landslide.
09 04 23 Politics101
Jenny will win big again but I wonder if the large number of Green elections signs along the Adanac bike route in Strathcona indicates that perhaps the Green will finish second here as there doesn't appear to be any Liberal presence in the riding at the moment.
09 03 26 binriso
Just like West Vancouver Capilano for the Liberals, this is the NDP's safest seat in the province. Even in 2001, this seat was won handily (44.5% to 33.2%) and that was when the Green Party was much stronger taking 17%. They?ll approach 2/3 of the vote again this time.
09 01 12 Predictor
When the NDP was down to two seats, this was one of them. No chance of this changing what so ever.

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