Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009

Vancouver-Point Grey

Prediction Changed
9:39 PM 13/01/2009

Constituency Profile

Campbell, Gordon
The Sex Party
Ince, John
Green Party
Kronstein, Stephen
Lehan, Mel

Vancouver-Point Grey
(100% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 05 09 anon
Point Grey is not a 'close' riding like Mel Lehan's campaign might like to believe. He is earnest and well liked in certain circles, but he is not a credible choice for MLA.
This riding will go Campbell or Liberal (right wing) as long as it remains a first past the post electoral system.
Mel's old fashion NDP establishment (sort of centrist, but doctrinaire) attitudes will not help him get elected.
09 05 01 Sarah
Well, students won't really be around when the vote happens, considering that UBC kicked them all out yesterday.
09 04 27 RetroRyan
The premier's riding is a very interesting one to analyze. It is not a very right-wing riding, but its upscale population has no difficulty voting for centrist candidates.
The last BC election, redistributed into the new boundaries gives the following:
Liberal: 11625 46.10%
NDP: 9559 37.91%
Green: 3733 14.80%
Others: 298 1.18%
The last mayoral election, redistributed into the Vancouver-Point Grey boundaries gives the following:
NPA: 4909 43.90%
VV-COPE: 5951 53.22%
Others: 322 2.88%
where the NPA can be considered a farm team for the BC Liberals and the VV-COPE coalition can be considered the farm team for the NDP.
The lesson is that if the NDP want to pull an upset in this riding, they will have to convince as many Green voters as possible to vote for their candidate, otherwise Gordon Campbell will win. Right now he is the favourite, but things could still change.
09 04 16
NDP spin doctors should really stop talking about UBC students. Laurence is bang on - the students will be gone, and only a small fraction vote anyways. Yeah, yeah, this riding has voted NDP before - a grand total of once, 18 years ago, when the party swept to power and the Liberals and Socreds split the 'free enterprise' vote. Mel Lehan might have a following in the bobo salons of Kitsilano, but he's no Darlene Marzari. The NDP's resources in Metro Vancouver would be better spent in places like Vancouver-Fraserview and Burnaby.
09 04 13 tim.
the students at UBC will probably be the deciding factor here in vancouver-point grey. and i think the NDP has a serious shot here. mel lehan played a huge role in the movement to save the UBC farm. furthermore, the student union at UBC has been very active in terms of registering voters. this will definitely be one to watch. it'll be a close one with the NDP coming up on top.
09 04 05 binriso
As a counter argument to anyone who say it takes a disaster to lose a leaders seat. Bourassa lost his seat in 1985 and the Liberal Party in Quebec won 99 out of 122 seats. This seat is definitely leaning Liberal though.
09 04 03 Laurence Putnam
Yes yes I know a lot of people would be excited to see Campbell lose - but its not going to happen. Forget the students, the election is May 12th, the students have gone home. Two thirds of those that do stick around don't vote anyway. A leader losing their own seat customarily takes a loss of epic proportions (Kim Campbell PCs, Bourassa Libs '76). Not on the docket here.
09 03 27 rhudson
Gordon Campbell will win again, with a stronger vote percentage than last time. NDP has high hopes, but they did last time too. They can blame Greens all they want, but remember, the Greens ran a popular businessman last time, not exactly the type to lend former supports to Mel Lehan and the NDP.
09 03 19 Nick J Boragina
There are those who want to see the Premier lose, but the reality is that he has enough strength and personal popularity in this riding to take it. It will not even be all that close.
09 03 04 p. kelly
Point Grey is not exactly a core conservative seat like most areas of Calgary might be. This is a swing seat, thanks to a large pool of university students and rentals in the area. They voted for Campbell in the recent past because of the natural advantage of having the opposition leader - then premier as your local MLA. But this seat has been NDP before. The NDP took it in 1989 in a byelection and kept it in 1991. With Campbells extreme unpopularity, this seat is not only competitive, it will likely vote NDP - thanks to a vote split between Liberals and the disgruntled who'll vote Green.
09 02 25 binriso
Well theres no Green candidate here yet and I think its fair to say their vote will drop with whatever candidate they get, which certainly doesn?t hurt the NDPs chances for an upset win here.
09 01 19 Burt R
I agree with the posts thus far. Municipal issues will factor in and Campbell is going to get punished. The question is how much? and will the outrage that flowed against the BC Liberals in 2005, flow again in the economically uncertain times of 2009?
09 01 17 p. kelly
I think that the Premier is in jeopardy here. His right-leaning NPA was thrashed here in the last civic election, and popularity of the BC Liberals is not what it was. Point Grey has voted NDP in the past, and I submit that its held on to its Liberal MLA because of his status as Premier and previously as opposition leader before 2001. Areas like point grey will see outrage because of their increases in property taxes related to handling the Olympic financing scandal. I think that Campbell will lose his own seat.
09 01 14 binriso
The NDP will probably win this riding if they form a government even if it is the Premier's seat and the margin was only 8% last time.
09 01 13 VanToria
Campbell gets points for being the Premier, but he'll be in tough against Lehan again. Campbell won by less than 3000 votes and pulled it out because of the NDP/Green split. Lehan got out of the gates early and is already working his strong community connections.
Looking at the Vancouver Mayor results, the riding voted Vision over NPA.

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