Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-04-28 09:21:00

Constituency Profile


Byrne, Joe

Casey, Sean

Judson, Baird

Knockwood, Eliza

Profit, Donna

Hon. Shawn Murphy

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • hillsborough (82/90 Polls)
  • malpeque (5/76 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 02 Jim Benson
    Donna Profit has been running one of the most enthusiastic political campaigns that I have seen from Charlottetown politicians in years. Her personality has been outshining that of her political opponents, and that might be enough to finally beat the Liberals who have held the Charlottetown seat for so many years.
    11 04 29 Sasha
    NDP seems to be running the only active full time campaign in Charlottetown since elections are called. Almost every day local NDP appears in the news and almost every story on local news sites and forums that deals with politics ends up being being discussion about NDP in comments section. This online enthusiasm might as well end up being just a tip of the iceberg and combined with national NDP surge could be enough to bring NDP on top.
    11 04 26 rp
    Things seem a bit different this time. We're no longer talking about whatever eroded base that Dody Crane left for the NDP, although she certainly made inroads. Joe Byrne is running a different kind of campaign, and has Casey clearly on the defensive (whereas before Murphy would have essentially ignored the NDP candidate). A very visible campaign, with advertising that some find controversial, but that in any event resonates. t's his campaign that has the buzz, and attracts detractors, whether it's on the local bulletin boards, or the comments on the news sites. Jack's coat tails are going to be very long this time around. Every poll has him supplanting the Libs nationally, crushing the Bloc. As of today, EKOS has the NDP in first in Atlantic Canada as well. These are the best conditions ever for an NDP win in Charlottetown.
    11 04 10
    The open seat of Charlottetown may be the Liberals' strongest on the Island now.
    11 04 01 M. Lunn
    The results in 2008 here were not much different than the results in Egmont in 2006. Considering the Tories picked up Egmont in 2008, there is a possiblity they could do the same here. However, I think this will be a lot more difficult as it is more urban, has a large civil service population as well as the Conservative candidate is not as high profile as Gail Shea. The only thing that might help the Conservatives is the NDP tends to do better here than either PEI ridings thus 40% would be probably sufficient for the Tories take this whereas in other ridings they will need more than that. At this point, Liberal edge, but until I see a PEI specific poll I will refrain from making a definitive prediction.
    11 03 29 JC
    Murphy's departure opens this seat up a bit, but the Liberal nominee is pretty much a clone of Murphy (Irish Catholic lawyer named Sean/Shawn from the firm of Stewart McKelvey who is a long-time fixture in the Charlottetown Liberal machine). Donna Profit is a good candidate too (and a very nice lady), but I'm not convinced she has the profile to do what Gail Shea did in Egmont, particularly given the malaise on the national scene. The NDP is, per usual, irrelevant.
    I wonder if Robert Ghiz is annoyed that Murphy didn't opt for another term, since a retirement then would have been perfectly timed for him to wrap things up on the provincial stage.
    11 03 27 Tony Ducey
    An open seat so expect a lot of CPC resources to be put in here but I still see the Liberals retaining this riding.
    11 03 25 R.O.
    Charlottetown could turn into an interesting race however its tough to get a feel for the new candidates. liberals still remain strong on PEI especially at provincial level however its not known if that turn into increased federal support. as voters have got to see how Egmont mp Gail Shea was able to have a positive contribution as a member of conservative government . of course Donna Profit does not have the political resume Shea had and has to get known in the riding first. liberal candidate Sean Casey isn't high profile at federal level either so it appears to be a competitve open race here .
    11 03 12 rp
    So far, it's all new faces for the top 3 parties. I have to wonder whether people, despite having liked a very likeable Shawn Murphy, will vote for a somewhat less-flashy (if that were possible) Shawn Murphy clone. That is to say, Casey is also a silver-haired, middle-aged male lawyer, out of the same law firm as Murphy, and fully entrenched in the Charlottetown establishment, and is hardly anyone to get really excited about. That being said, what alternative do they have? Donna Profit? Who? A nice person, I'd bet, but.... If DeBlois had run again, I would have predicted him winning this time around. Joe Byrne (NDP) I expect will improve on Brian Pollard's numbers from last time, he is somewhat known from his involvement with the Diocese of Charlottetown, and the Newcomers' Association. He certainly seems to have the most invigorated NDP campaign PEI has seen in a generation.
    11 03 01 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    Sean Casey has won the nomination here for the Liberals.
    10 10 21 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    So Mr Murphy isn't running again. We say this opens up this riding. Look at what happened in Egmont, the Liberals continuously won 8K - 10K votes with the Conservatives held at bay with 5K - 6K votes. Egmont became an open seat, the conservatives found a popular candidate...what do you get...an upset. Numbers look very similar for Charlottetown and with Shawn bailing on the Liberals...well it's too close to call for now.
    09 09 03 JF Breton
    Depuis quatre élections, Murphy maintient une majorité de 3000 voix environs. Lors des dernières élections, sous la chefferie de Dion, il a obtenu 50% des voix. Je vois mal comment il pourrait perdre cette fois-ci avec Ignatieff. Victoire libérale.
    09 09 01 JJ
    This is quite a strong Liberal riding, so unless national trends wing upwards for the Conservatives, this should stay in the Liberal fold.

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