Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Halifax West

Prediction Changed
2011-05-01 09:02:00

Constituency Profile


Ash, Gregor

Pretty, Bruce Robert

Regan, Geoff

Trappenberg, Thomas

Hon. Geoff Regan

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • halifax (51/212 Polls)
  • halifax-west (114/223 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 01 Ron F
    There is an NDP surge in Halifax and there is spill over to the western part of the city and yes even Bedford. There is support in some of the outlying communities as well. This still very close but tomorrow is elction day so I will call it for the NDP.
    11 05 01 MB
    Heard this was listed as TCTC (maybe because of the Hill Times article) but they obviously haven't been in the riding. No signs don't vote but theyre put there by voters, and I see more red then ever before. Regan did well at the debates and has been all over the riding (came to my place). I can't imagine this will fall.
    11 05 01 Alex Smith
    You guys are waaaaay off. There is no ground game here by the NDP. The NDP is throwing all their resources to Halifax (where the results Monday night will be much closer than in Halifax West - Leslie has been invisible in her home riding, although active on TV etc for the NDP) and Dartmouth - Cole Harbour (where Mike Savage will win again).
    The NDP didn't even bother to drop the nasty anti-Liberal brochure that they sent into Dartmouth.
    Regan has more signs out than he's ever had and the NDP candidate hasn't shown up at any riding events in the past few days.
    11 04 30 Buck
    I am a money-donating CPC member and I voted NDP in Halifax-west in order to help prevent another Regan win. The CPC candidate is a nice sacrificial lamb who has no chance of winning... Perhaps others are engaging in strategic voting in order to damage the Regan electoral machine.
    11 04 30 Geographically Aware
    To say that the NDP office is not in the riding is to say that one is completely unaware of geography. Halifax West is a LARGE riding with both urban elements (Bedford) and rural elements (Prospect). NDP's office is actually more central than Regan's. Regan only has strength in Bedford and that is quickly eroding. He has been persona non-grata in the rest of the riding (which has a stronger NDP base) and has been his whole time in Ottawa - his attendance record is atrocious. As for trotting out his political pedigree that is a two-edged sword. Many Nova Scotians still remember what Gerry Regan stood for personally and what he did to wreck the Nova Scotian economy in the 70's.
    11 04 29 NSDAD
    I don't see where the national rise in NDP support will bring up the NDP vote high enough in Halifax West. I have met Gregor Ash, and he seems like a nice enough guy. Geoff Regan has represented the riding well, and clearly represents his constituents wishes. Regan has a experienced campaign team, and lots of volunteers going out in the community. While I know signs don't vote, Regan is clearly winning the sign war. I stopped by the Headquarters for the Regan campaign, and picked up the Liberal platform. The NDP headquarters was too far from the riding. I know that Regan lives in the riding, but don't think Ash does. I don't see the NDP taking the riding. Looking forward to Monday night.
    11 04 29 Clayton Park West
    I can't see this being too close to call, Regan is a good MP. I think he's has like 120 public meetings around the riding or something like that. He is a solid MP who has worked hard.
    11 04 27 bluenoser885
    The Hill Times says this riding will fall to the NDP. For this riding to be mentioned in such a way is huge and more and more this is the talk on the ground. No one would ever have thought Reagan was in trouble. Ash has been campaigning tirelessly for a year and a half and that might just pay off on election day. He is young, has a young family, and a fresh face for the area compared to Reagan - the son of a former premier and husband of a provincial MLA. More importantly, Layton is liked in Nova Scotia and this has never ever been the case - even among NDP members.
    I think this riding is too close to call. An NDP win here on election night could signify a shift to the NDP across the country.
    11 04 27 Halifax83
    The Hill Times suggests that this is a seat that will be one to watch on May 2nd. I've been listening to local radio and the last few days callers into morning shows have all suggested they are supporting the NDP this time. I think that Mr. Ash has really shown that he can provide a competitive challenge to Mr. Regan and that if anything this is a very very close riding and shouldn't be outright given over to the Liberals.
    11 04 27 binriso
    What the heck, with the Green vote going to drop off significantly here most likely, the Conservatives only a minor factor and an apparent surge by the NDP in the Atlantic they could easily win here. Any surge in the Atlantic provinces would be centered in Nova Scotia for the NDP as they are likely to lose a lot of votes in rural Newfoundland, dont have much to begin with in PEI and will likely not gain a whole lot in NB either as they are likely going to be 3rd in every riding but Acadie Bathurst as well as a couple seconds in Conservative super-strongholds.
    11 04 26 FairviewBoy
    This has always been a two way race between the Liberal incumbent and the NDP - a scenario that has played since the 2000 election when the Liberals won the riding back from the NDP. This time the NDP are very very strong, organized and have been campaigning with their nominated candidate Gregor Ash since November 2009.
    Regan is relatively invisible in the riding outside of his base of support Bedford. The NDP hold three of the five provincial seats and could see growth throughout the newer areas of Bedford West, Clayton Park and especially in Hammonds Plains.
    I would argue that given the poll numbers that this riding along with the other ridings around Halifax (Halifax West, South Shore St. Margarets and Dartmouth-Cole Harbour) are too close to call.
    11 04 26 myNDP2senseworth
    If I were a betting man, I wouldn't go ‘all in’ and pick the NDP in Halifax West yet... but... the NDP numbers are rising, and Gregor Ash is a very popular guy. His involvement with the Atlantic Film Festival has, I'm sure given him access to a lot of major players, major players that might be Liberals or Conservatives.
    Halifax West is also a rapidly changing area with a lot of new residents and students.
    And, If I were a betting man... I'd need to take a closer look on the ground and find out if any high profile NDP-ers are helping out. If I knew that someone like Alexa McDonough was helping out on the ground, then I might be tempted to raise my NDP bet in Halifax West.
    11 04 23 Bedford
    With the polls pushing the NDP up across the country (in Atlantic Canada especially) and the NDP running a high-profile candidate, I think this riding will get eeked out by Gregor Ash.
    He seems to be really visible, his signage is great and his face has been popping up around the riding. He seems to be working much harder than Geoff.
    11 03 28 M.Lunn
    Being the more affluent part of Halifax, this should be an easy Liberal win with the NDP coming in a distant second and the Tories in third. The Tories are a non-factor in Halifax and this too affluent for the NDP to realistically win here unlike the other three Halifax ridings.
    10 03 05 Ned
    This riding was much closer last time. Regan likely paid a price for Dion's carbon tax which he strongly supported. Whatever Iggy's weaknesses, he is miles more popular than Dion. Harper is hated.
    09 10 27 binriso
    It was somewhat surprising to see this riding as close as it was last time with all of the negative posts about the NDP candidate, it was only a 42-30 margin and less than 5000 votes with the CPC distantly in 3rd. Its almost certainly Liberal, but the NDP might have an outside chance, or at least another strong 2nd.
    09 08 25 Keen Eye
    Geoff Regan will again hold his seat. Despite loosing some support in 2008 to the NDP candidate he still managed a 12% margin of victory (app 5000 votes). I expect a strong margin of victory this time out for the Liberal incumbent.
    11 04 28 Dartmouthian
    I woke up this morning and saw that this was changed to TCTC. I'm from dartmouth where I admit Savage has a race on his hands with the NDP but I cannot imagine Regan losing his seat that he has held for 10 years!

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