Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

South Shore-St. Margaret's

Prediction Changed
2011-05-01 09:01:00

Constituency Profile


Earle, Gordon

Keddy, Gerald

MacLellan, Kris

Wells, Derek

Gerald Gordon Keddy

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • halifax-west (25/223 Polls)
  • south-shore (193/193 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 01 Ron F
    Derek Wells is not going to save Ignatief. The Liberals are not a factor here.Federal fishery policy and Health care issues are more important. Earle Gordon will take it.
    11 04 29 ABG
    This looks to be a two-horse race between Wells of the Libs and Earle of the NDP. Earle seems to have an edge in the sign war, though he's also got a lot of them on public land, at intersections, etc. And there is simmering resentment here about Keddy's sellout of Nova Scotia on the Atlantic Accord. That, coupled with the supposed surge in NDP support via polling may be enough to turn this orange. But I wouldn't count out the ex-MP Wells, despite his very weird campaign ad featuring his horse (look it up on YouTube).
    11 04 29 CGH
    Interestingly, while it should be trending NDP, the ferry decision by the provincial NDP will likely push a lot of southwestern anti-Tory votes to the Libs. This could be enough to once again split the vote and allow Keddy to come through the middle.. again.
    I'd probably still bet on the NDP pulling this one out though.
    11 04 26 ajk
    During the 2008 election, the Liberals had the weakest canadiate that I can remember in sometime. Not only that, they also had their weakest leader and the Liberal vote fled to the NDP. This time around, the Liberals have a former MP and a decent canadiate and should win some of those votes that they lost the last time to the NDP. So my guess would be the NDP numbers will fall, the Liberals will pick up and the Conservatives will stay the same and win this riding.
    11 04 22 rabbit
    spent one of my better vacations in area - driving coastal roads south from Chester to Liverpool- such lucky people who live in area
    -going on hunch that recent NDP gain as in polls could allow NDP to win seat-- will anti tories voters pick ndp over Liberal - i assuming lib vote in riding will be limited - if not then tory will survive
    suprised Harper not come to area so either seat lost or im totally wrong and Tories will hold on
    11 04 22 Nova Scotian
    This was really close last time (less than 1,000) and I expect it to be even closer this time. Keddy is doing no favours for himself after missing two debates (http://thechronicleherald.ca/Vote2011/1239492.html). Add in strong Liberal and NDP candidates and this will be a close election. We also have to keep in mind that a Conservative has held the seat for 50 of the last 54 years. This comes down to how much splitting goes between the NDP and Liberals and if voters decide to side with one to stop the Conservatives from winning. If the vote splits for Liberal and NDP, watch for Keddy to win again. The NDP may just squeak out a win here.
    11 04 20 Junkie Politico
    Until this week I had South Shore-St. Margaret's in the ‘leaning Conservative’ column, though recent polling dips for the Tories in Atlantic Canada and coinciding increases in regional NDP support have thrown it into the ‘too close to call’ category. Gordon Earle has been making steady gains since he started running here, which suggests that he has the ability to increase his base. Moreover, in a riding as close as this, small events take on great significance. The Green candidate, while a very decent person, lives in Halifax and is an obvious paper candidate, and lacks the local profile that Michael Oddy did. Where will a certain decline in the Green vote go? Also, there is no Christian Heritage Party candidate this time around. While the CHP got only 1.3% of the vote in 2008, their absence could very well give Keddy the edge he needs to fight off Earle, provided those votes shift to him. However, would any of those 500 or so CHP votes from 2008 go to Keddy, as the CHP ran candidates against him specifically because he supported same-sex marriage? These fringe party developments, normally a non-consideration in most ridings, make South Shore-St. Margaret's an even more difficult race to call. If forced to call it now, I'd say a VERY narrow Conservative hold, but slight shifts in the polls could very well push it into the NDP camp. Definitely one to watch on election night!
    11 04 18 binriso
    Thing is is that Keddy barely won last time and has been steadily losing support to the NDP, Minna has won consistently by a few thousand votes. Layton was in the riding yesterday and that will certainly help the cause not to mention NDP support in Atlantic Canada is strongest in Nova Scotia now. Should be able to snag a victory this time.
    11 04 17 Marco Ricci
    The race is interesting this year because it has 3 MP's running against each other - the incumbent MP, the former MP, and a former MP of another riding. The question is what effect will former Liberal MP Derek Wells have? He probably won't be able to get enough votes to win, but he may be able to attract away some NDP votes. On the CPAC profile for this riding they interviewed a woman who said she has voted NDP in recent elections, but will be switching to Liberal. If a lot of other voters do that, it could hurt the NDP's Gordon Earle. The question also is whether Earle running so many times is good or bad. It seems to be good in the sense that he has gotten to know the riding, and voters know him, but it could also mean he is hitting a ceiling of support and that it may take another NDP candidate to take this riding over the top. I think Gerald Keddy of the Cons probably still has the edge here by being the incumbent and because the Con numbers are still pretty solid in the polls. In order for the Cons to lose this riding like they did in 1993 to the Liberals, they would probably have to drop nationally.
    11 04 16 The Jackal
    Gerald Keddy and Maria Minna of Beaches-East York always seem poised to lose to the NDP each election seem to win by a small margin. I say with the CPC numbers in Atlantic Canada Keddy will be back in Ottawa after election day.
    11 04 16 David Young
    Good news for the NDP.
    The 2008 Green candidate, Michael Oddy, isn't running this time. Oddy had been a quality candidate, who lived in the riding, spoke elequantly about the issues at the all-candidates debates, and had credibility.
    This time, the Greens had to dredge up a parachute candidate from Halifax, Kyle MacLellan, who has no history in this riding, was an also-ran twice in metro ridings in two provincial elections, and has already missed one of the all-candidates meetings.
    Oddy earned 2098 votes in the 2008 election, while the previous Green candidate in 2006 earned 1168.
    Should the Green vote drop to the previous level of support, that definitely helps the NDP, since they are clearly the one best positioned to defeat the Conservative incumbent.
    NDP pick-up!
    11 04 11 Social Democrat
    A reality check is needed... the only time I hear about no one voting NDP again or that everyone dislikes the provincial NDP government are from already Tory and Liberals. Provincial opinion polling on the provincial government shows the NDP and Liberals tied in the mid 30's and the Tories back in the mid 20's.
    If the NDP are so unpopular, why are they still tied for first place? If the NDP are so unpopular, what's it say about how popular Liberals are then if they're getting the same support as the NDP?
    Where was the talk btw of Keddy losing his seat because the provincial Tories at so low in the polls? Got to love a double standard.
    This will be a close contest.
    11 04 10 tabhairteach
    This is truly too close to call at this stage, and could go any of three ways. In recent years NDPs Earle has been breathing down Keddy's back - never quite making it. Could this be his time? Incombent Keddy has carefully kept some distance from Harper-style Torydom - helpful almost anywhere in NS. He might easily repeat. And then there is the re-entry of Derek Wells, experienced campaigner and former Liberal member - always a strong presence in the riding. If the NDP vote continues to dissolve, it's not likely going to Keddy. The spread might get some definition after the debate. If not, look for this one to go right to the last vote.
    11 04 08 Bluenoser123
    nope546 (or nope586?) - I think you will be surprised. I have a number of friends who voted NDP last time around who are so disgusted with the Provincial government that it has affected the entire brand. Many of them are voting Liberal - a couple are voting Green, and a few are voting for Gerald Keddy... Two of them told me that voting NDP was the biggest mistake they have ever made.
    The NDP will be a distant 3rd in this race.
    11 04 07 Social Democrat
    The last poll put the NDP tied provincially with the Liberals. The Tories well behind. Not sure how that means the NDP support has tanked. Being around 35% while making tough budget decisions, etc. is pretty impressive.
    The federal NDP seem to be on the uptick. 21% in the recent Angus Reid and climbing. Gordon Earle has a great chance to be the next MP for South Shore-St. Margaret's.
    11 04 06 nope586
    I think the supporters of the Conservative Party are overestimating the level of displeasure with the NDP and how the provincial NDP’s support affects the federal candidates chances. The fact remains is that 2/3 of this riding do not support Gerald Keddy, and there will be a big push against the Conservative party here, look for this one to be very close.
    11 04 05 Southwesterner
    I agree with what was said below. The NDP's support in Nova Scotia has tanked everywhere provincially outside of Halifax. Polls at ThreeHundredEight are showing that Keddy has around 40% support with the Liberals and NDP at 25% each.
    11 04 04 Bluenoser123
    Keddy will win this with a bigger margin than ever before.
    Yes, the NDP currently holds 5 seats, but their popularity (provincially) has tanked, and I woudl expect many people who voted NDP will either vote for Keddy (a minority) and the rest will go to the Liberals. I'm predicting Keddy to take this with 40% or so, the Libs and NDP will be tied with about 25% a piece or so...
    Keddy is popular with his core constituents, and has done a good job in delivering to the riding.
    This should be a Conservative Hold.
    11 04 02 J Keller
    I'm not predicting this except to say that the Liberals and Greens have no chance. I generally agree with the NDP up-trend. Gordon Earle lost by only 900 votes in 2008 and that was *before* 5/5 of the provincial ridings with SSSM went NDP. Many voters were also fooled into thinking that ‘the strategic vote is Liberal’ and this time around they will not make that error. With a more dynamic candidate than Earle, I'd predict this for NDP and may yet do so before election day.
    ‘Nova Scotia has now a NDP provincial government. NDP swept South Shore in the provincial elections. In the 2008 federal elections, NDP lost by a margin of 2%’ that being 900 votes. ‘Conservatives are not going to have the momentum they had in 2008. Jack Layton barely visited this constituency last time.’ However he is wasting his time in Halifax now and has not so far visited the South Shore. He better do so tomorrow.
    If he spends all his time in Nova Scotia from now on in SSSM, Earle will piggyback on Jack's popularity and win. If Jack wastes his time trying to split votes in places he can't win (that is, anywhere else in Atlantic Canada he doesn't already hold) then this stays Conservative another round.
    Keddy's publicity materials are huge fold-out posters of himself with many community leaders bragging about money brought to specific small projects - to defeat this the NDP have to emphasize their skills as constituency lobbyists in Ottawa, and prove you don't have to hold power to get stuff.
    Another factor: If Michael Oddy is the Green nominee he's an advocate of anti-Harper voting and will advocate NDP votes if the NDP are ahead as of the last week of the election. He once quit the leadership of the GPNS (provincial) to join the NDP, but is such a strong campaigner and media presence he can keep the idiots at bay and enforce practical approaches to elections in SSSM. Without Oddy the NDP would definitely lose more votes to the Greens.
    11 04 01 M. Lunn
    Since 1997, Gerald Keddy has always won by narrow margins and always gotten between 35-40%. While he could break the 40% mark or fall below the 35% mark, my guess is he will probably get in that range again. The NDP has made strong gains, but the question is whether the unpopularity of the NDP provincial government will weigh them down or not. Also the gun registry might be what saves him considering this is not popular here and only the Conservatives oppose it. I would give Keddy the edge, but really until we get closer to the election, it would be silly to make any strong predictions one way or another.
    11 03 30 odude22
    Earle and the NDP's have steadily gained, and Mr. Keddy's support has dropped steadily declined - ever since 2004. The first election in which Earle began to run. In 2008 Keddy was at 35.99% and Earle was at 33.65%, the NDP can do it this time and take this riding.
    11 03 27 David Y.
    Sorry, Elizabeth, but for the Liberals to have to resort to the candidate who only won this riding when the whole country turfed the P.C.s in the 1993 election, Derek Wells, that's a sign of weakness, not strength.
    Yes, Gordon Earle is recovering from a major medical issue, (just like Jack Layton), but he's doing great.
    It's taken time for the NDP candidate to become more familiar to the voters of S.S.S.M., and each time his support has increased, while Liberal support has steadily dropped, especially because the 'Liberal Election Machine' crumbled after they fell to third place after the 2008 election, and the devestating results of the provincial election in 2009.
    The NDP have more money in the bank going into this election than they've ever had thanks to on-going fund-raising activities, and they have many more experienced volunteers who saw how their hard work contributed to all five provincial seats going NDP in 2009.
    11 03 27 Tony Ducey
    Every election Keddy's supposed to lose and every election he wins. I expect nothing to change this year especially with the Liberals and NDP offering well known candidates which would split the vote on the left.
    11 03 23 Elizabeth
    I do not feel that this election will be the same as the last one. The Liberal candidate in the previous election was a former NDP and the Liberal leader was also incredibly weak. It was noticeable that Liberals did not come out and vote in the last election.
    Gordon Earle appears tired and fairly weak. I do not feel that the NDP will be as strong in this election.
    Gerald Keddy has made some major errors between the previous Federal election and now. Presenting the giant Conservative logo cheque on behalf of the Government of Canada and calling the unemployed ‘No Good Bastards’ will not help his cause. I feel that this riding is tired of the Conservative leadership.
    Derek Wells is a former Liberal MP. I think this will give him more sway with voters. He's been there before and he has made his connections- and is also respected.
    This riding is going to come down to the Conservative candidate and the Liberal Candidate. I do not feel the NDP will be in the race this year.
    10 12 01 wyatt
    Considering that Keddy's total continues to drop each election, this should remain too close to call for the foreseeable future.
    10 09 27 Southwesterner
    A few months ago I would have said the NDP has this riding but not anymore. With their provincial support waning outside of Halifax and their Gun Registry dilemma, I believe Keddy can retain his riding.
    10 09 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Was taking a look at the polling numbers from the last three elections. Ever since Mr Earle started running in this riding, he gained about 3% each election. Mr. Keddy lost about 1% each election. Voter turn out was consistent each and every time. If this trend keeps up then Mr. Earle will leapfrog over Mr Keddy this time and take the riding. Just saying...
    10 02 26 election eye
    Two months ago this seat was guaranteed for the NDP....after the momentum of the provincial election. Layton has spent a whack of time in the riding, and with Keddy's wife and all other Tories being annihilated an NDP victory was certain. It is much less certain now but the NDP are best at focussing resources and ridings like this, and Halifax will get attention and we will win this for the first time.
    10 01 24 J.Mc.
    Earle is beginning to become a perennial candidate, though he has more going for him this time around. I vote TCTC.
    10 01 12 AK
    Everyone always right Mr. Keddy off in this riding but yet he always win and that is not about to change this time. He has done a lot for his riding and the voters will certainly recognize what he has done. The Liberals will be running a pro gun control candidate and will be judge on his past stance in this rural riding. The voters of South Shore-St. Margaret's rejected the Earle in the past and will do so again. So this will be a hold for the Conservatives.
    09 11 25 David Y.
    Once more, Gerald Keddy removes his right foot from his mouth, only to insert the left!
    Now he's insulted people in a safe NDP seat, Halifax, only to make yet another of his apologies.
    Once he turns 55 next year and qualifies for his Parliamentary pension, one begins to wonder if he plans on sticking around for the next election. It's obvious that he'll never become a cabinet minister.
    09 11 25 binriso
    I was already thinking this was leaning NDP, simply because of the closeness of last time and the fact that Keddy has lost a thousand or so votes each of the last three elections with the NDP gaining 1500 or so each time and honestly dont think these are overly controversial comments, though stupid. But the major reason that it will likely be an NDP pickup is the fact that Keddy has drawn a target sign on his back and the NDP will be motivated to win here, the Liberals are a bit too far behind and that makes it seem possible the NDP can pick it up by a few hundred votes or more.
    09 11 24 mikeg
    Gerald Keddy is the gift that just keeps on giving
    09 11 24 Top Can Inc.
    If handing out party logo emblazoned cheques wasn't bad enough, now Keddy has apparently insulted fellow Nova Scotians by calling some of them 'no-good bastards'. With the NDP on the rise on the South Shore, Keddy's days as a foul mouthed backbencher are numbered.
    09 11 03 A.S.
    I don't know how long it's been since a federal constituency has been contested by *three* present and former MPs at once...but it's all the more reason for me to continue my healthy skepticism t/w handing a prediction to Gordon Earle on a platter. And the outcome of the last three races is all the more reason for me to act thusly, Dexter gov't or no Dexter gov't.
    09 10 30 R.O.
    Well Keddy got himself into trouble over that cheque life as they say goes on. and this argument that provincial support equals federal support is really rather silly as i could name a long list of ridings that are not held by the same party at federal and provincial level. of course the ndp wins at the provincial level do indicate they have some support in Nova Scotia but does it mean the federal ndp are going to sweep this province of course not. and we shouldn't forget the federal liberals are also targeting the riding and running former one time mp Derek Wells. but considering he hasn't been mp for a while i'm not sure how well known he is in the riding. so it has the looks of a possible 3 way race which is what was usually the case in this riding in some past elections. Now Layton is targeting the riding and visited it a few times but it might be a tough sell to convince voters to trade in a government mp for an opposition backbencher . but this one likely remain too close to call until we get much closer to an actual election.
    09 10 18 David Y.
    Well, Gerald Keddy didn't do himself any good by being photographed when handing out stimulus cheques with the Conservative logo on them.
    And then he says that he never noticed the logos?
    Given that Gerald turns 55 next year, which qualifies him for his Parliamentary pension, maybe he won't be defeated after all.
    Perhaps he won't run.
    If he does, he's looking weaker and weaker as time goes on.
    NDP pick-up!
    09 10 09 David Y.
    The demographics of this riding have been changing over the past decade.
    The World War Two-era generation that faithfully elected Lloyd Crouse from 1957 to 1984 is passing on, and since the NDP broke onto the electoral map big-time in the 1998 election, NDP strength has been on a steady increase.
    And there's little evidence that any up-turn in the Canadian economy will have an effect on the fishing, forestry, or tourism industries which make up the backbone of the South Shore-St. Margaret's economy and which have been suffering greatly over the past several years.
    The voters are looking for change, and with the steady decline of the Liberals in S.S.S.M., the NDP is now the clear alternative to the Harper Conservatives.
    NDP pick-up!
    09 10 05 SouthWestNS
    Support for the NDP in provincial election does not translate in federal politics. This riding will still go conservative.
    09 09 29 David Y.
    Gordon Earle won the contested nomination for the NDP in South Shore-St. Margaret's on Sunday.
    Premier Darrell Dexter is a native of this riding, and lives in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, so you know he'll be working hard to try to win these two seats for the federal NDP.
    Plus, the provincial 'honeymoon' seems to be continuing for the newly-elected NDP government, given their 60% level of support in a recent public survey.
    NDP gain!
    09 09 27 David Y.
    Gordon Earle won the contested nomination this afternoon to be the NDP candidate in South Shore-St. Margaret's again.
    With all 5 provincial ridings voting NDP for the first-time ever on June 9th in the Nova Scotia election, this is looking more and more like an NDP pick up, whenever the federal election is called.
    09 09 21 Sean P.F.
    This riding will definitely depend on the strength of the local and national campaigns.
    Anyone who follows politics in Canada knows that provincial results almost never correspond with federal results in similar ridings. PEI in 2007 is a perfect case, where all 4 seats the PC won are within the federal riding of Cardigan, a Liberal stronghold.
    In ridings such as this one, it is all going to be about the personalities at work. Will Premier Dexter and the NS NDP still be on honeymoon, which will give the federal NDP a boost here, for will something happen which sets back the local campaign? Is the Keedy/Streach family really dead like a previous poster suggested?
    All of this we cannot know, nor can we predict. In Maritime politics, it really is who you know and what reputation your family name carries.
    This riding is too close to call, and given current circumstances, I have a feeling it will be so close that election night is the only safe prediction to make here.
    09 09 20 Nick J Boragina
    Its been said provincial election results do not translate to federal election results. This is true, take a look at Ontario, where federal and provincial ridings are identical for proof.
    What is not true about that saying is that nothing translates. NDPers are pumped right now in Nova Scotia, their supporters and volunteers are raring to go. While many provincial PCers down and out, and even Harper Tory supporters are starting to feel the government might just not be 'theirs', this will leave a gap that the NDP can make up. You can bet Dexter will throw in everything he has to prove he can deliver Nova Scotia for the NDP. Remember, in terms of popular vote, NS was the #1 province for the NDP in the last few elections. The NDP should be able to manage at least one pick up.
    09 09 15 Wentzell's son
    Keddy will hold this seat again. The Jack Layton-led NDP have nothing to offer the voters in South Shore - St. Margaret's. This is a far different scenario than what the provincial election presented when people there voted in an NDP government.
    The NDP will lose ground to the Liberals in this one. Former MP Derek Wells is reoffering. Keddy will be as strong as ever. Electing a member to the government side in a sure-bet Conservative government will be a key factor in the decisions of South Shore voters.
    09 09 11 Left is Right
    This is one to watch. At one time all the provincial seats here were Tory, now all are NDP. The NDP are targeting this seat big-time,but it will be a fight. Keddy will fight hard and campaign well, and improved Liberal fortunes might help the Cons as Liberals who stayed home under Dion may come back this time for Iggy. But there is too much NDP here now.
    09 09 03 pollwerker
    Obvious NDP target riding. Keddy has surprised me before, but I think his luck has finally run out.
    09 08 31 Scotialist
    Gordon Earle will run yet again. If the NDP is smart enough to target the riding from day 1 of the campaign, they will win it. The Keddy/Streatch dynasty is losing its appeal in NS- Gerald Keddy's wife just got turfed from office provincially and her brother lost in another Tory stronghold. Meanwhile, every provincial riding went to the NDP in the south shore. I don't see how Keddy can hold on.
    09 08 30 David Y.
    Compare the votes cast for the parties in the 2008 Federal election to the votes cast in the 2009 Provincial election:
    2008 2009
    PC 14388 11419
    NDP 13456 19935
    LIB 9536 7639
    GR 2090 793
    With the continued strong Canadian dollar hurting the various industries that make up the economy of South Shore-St. Margaret's (tourism, fishing, foresty, etc.), the voters are not going to be very enthused about maintaining the status quo.
    The Provincial election showed how old voting patterns have been shattered, making this an almost certain Conservative loss and NDP pick-up in the next Federal election, especially when Gordon Earle announces he will be seeking the NDP nomination once again.
    NDP gain!
    09 08 25 Keen Eye
    This will be an interesting race. This one could go to any of the main parties, but the incumbent and the NDP have the best chance of taking the riding. The NDP lost by only 2% in 2008 to Keddy. With the NDP sweeping the South Shore ridings provincially, it could be a positive sign that the NDP may take the riding.
    Conservative support has remained very stagnant over the past three elections while Liberal support has been steadily declining. However the Liberals have been hurt over the past two elections because of the sponsorship scandal and leadership problems. A small rebound in Liberal support could be just what the NDP need to take the riding from Keddy, however a Liberal rebound could also hurt the NDP and take votes away from the NDP.
    If we look back to 2004 the Liberal pulled in 32% compared to 24% in 2008. That support has gone completely to the NDP over the past two elections. If that vote stays with the NDP they should win the riding. If some support goes back to the Liberals, it becomes a tight race. The Liberals most likely won’t win the seat, but they do have an outside shot. NDP and the Conservatives have the best chance of winning, but it’s too close to call.
    09 08 19 Observer
    Nova Scotia has now a NDP provincial government. NDP swept South Shore in the provincial elections. In the 2008 federal elections, NDP lost by a margin of 2%. Conservatives are not going to have the momentum they had in 2008. Jack Layton barely visited this constituency last time. A strong NDP candidate is widely expected. All these factors together give NDP advantage in South Shore-St. Margaret.
    11 04 28 Dr. J.
    Threehundredeight.blogspot.com has now called this one for the NDP. The latest polls all have the Conservatives falling in Atlantic Canada and the NDP rising. This is riding is now low fruit for the Dippers.
    11 04 28 pathrik
    With the rise of the NDP in Atlantic Canada, this riding is now toast for the Tories.
    11 04 28 tabhairteach
    In this case, it is only partially right to assume that a stronger Liberal candidate will weaken the NDP. The historic Grit/Tory swing will continue as part of the mix here. IF Wells in fact manages to improve Liberal fortune, he will take from Keddy, too. I sense this one is ready to go NDP.

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