Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-25 16:11:00

Constituency Profile


Clarke, Cecil

Eyking, Mark

MacLeod, Kathy

Milburn, Chris

Hon. Mark Eyking

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • bras-dor-cape-breton (11/188 Polls)
  • sydney-victoria (187/188 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 02 Election Fever
    The NDP have indeed experience a surge in the Atlantic, among other places. However, they aren't exactly blowing anyone away. The Tories are still polling well on the East coast. Meanwhile, the Liberals have experienced a rather large drop in support. Everywhere. As for the local dynamic, the Liberal incumbent has had relatively little impact as an MP(unemployment is still very high) and the CPC is running a widely popular candidate. It will be close between Eyking and Clarke but I give the edge to Clarke.
    11 05 01 Ron F
    Sydney and North Sydney will not vote Conservative. If the orange surge returns NDP strength the riding will not go Conservative
    11 04 29 CGH
    That would be one monumental swing to bring Cecil to first place here. A safe hold for the Liberals with a slightly decreased margin.
    11 04 28 Dave
    I think this one needs to move into the TCTC column. The conservatives are playing a good ground game and the Liberals are not being the most friendly to citizens in this riding. I am not sure if it is because they have not had to worry about losing in awhile but nonetheless, the Liberals seem to be faltering. This one is definitely one to watch. I was a liberal that has decided to ‘lend his vote’ to Cecil.
    11 04 28 RMC2011
    Along with Dartmouth-Cole Harbour and South Shore, Sydney-Victoria should be one of the Nova Scotia races to watch on election night. On the ground, it appears to be a dogfight between Eyking and Clarke, with both candidates putting everything they have into the race in the final days of the campaign. Clark appears to be well ahead in the sign war, with Tory signs popping up everywhere, including areas where the party hasn't been much of a factor for years. It's true that signs don't vote, but they can be good indicators of momentum, which seems to be going in Clarkes favour. The big question mark is the NDP, as the NDP campaign seems almost non-existant, which is surprising when you consider the strong campaigns they have had over the last 15 years. Because of this, I'm not sure how the NDP surge will play out in this riding, but I do expect it to atleast pull some late votes from the Liberal campaign, which should benefit Clarke more than MacLeod. Clarke's provincial campaigns were known for getting out the vote in advance polls, often being those polls that put him over the top. With the news that over 6,000 people had already voted in the riding, I suspect that Clarke's campaign have followed what worked in the past, which should give him an early boost. Also, the fact that Harpers rally in the riding drew the largest crowd the party has seen in Cape Breton since the days of John Buchanan could be an indication that political tides are turning. I'm not saying this is going to be a landslide by any means, it will be very close, but my gut instinct, atleast for the moment is that Cecil Clarke will win Sydney-Victoria for the Conservatives.
    11 04 27 bluenoser885
    I think this race needs to be too close to call. Harper doesn't go to ridings he doesn't think he can win and a rumour on the street is Cecil has a shot. Cecil is a respected MLA, a great campaigner, and remember he won his MLA seat with the message ‘a strong voice in government.’ This could pay off yet again for him.
    11 04 25 WAC
    Notwithstanding the NDP national surge, the Liberal party number in Atlantic Canada seem to be quite stable and unless they begin to seriously collapse, then its hard to see anyone but Eyking winning.
    11 04 26 kevandbeth@ns.sympatico.ca
    With it's recent history of swinging between the Liberals and the N.D.P. this seat will be one to watch on Election night.The emergence of Cecil Clarke as the Tory Candidate on the ballot has this one up in the air,especially when you factor in the collapse of the Liberal vote Country wide.Will the Liberals vote bleed to the New Democrats or the Tories or split half and half.If you consider the history of the soft Liberal vote it will mostly go to the Dippers.What may be the most interesting part of the whole race will be Chris Milburn the Green Party Candidate who is a well respected Doctor in the area and may pull away enough votes away from Eyking to let the Dippers slip up the middle.Time will tell
    11 04 23 Teddy Boragina
    Polls have shown the NDP is picking up a ton of steam on the east coast. I somehow doubt that is coming from NL, PE, and NB alone. A stronger NDP vote here coupled with an unusually strong CPC candidate, put this riding in TCTC country for me.
    11 04 17 Syd-Vic-Student
    A political science prof at CBU told us a clear sign the Eyking campaign was falling apart was if Haper was to come to sydney--guess who is comming to sydney again on the 21st? Harper.
    11 04 16 The Jackal
    Despite having a strong candidate for CPC this is a traditional Liberal riding and it will take a Mulroney 1984-type landslide before this riding goes blue.
    11 04 15 Richie Cotton
    strong canadiate plus conserative projection to win handily will result in a close win for Cecil Clarke
    11 04 15
    Note that the Conservatives have not gotten significantly higher than 20 percent in the history of this riding since 1997. Highest was in 1997 when Clarke was the candidate and he was a distant 3rd place. They may need to more than double their vote from last election and i dont think that happens. I would like to see them run on their economic action plan in Cape Breton, considering there is almost 20 percent unemployment in this riding.
    11 04 11 Capers1
    A couple of months ago I would have called this seat for the Liberals, not because of the incumbent, but due to the fact that it keeps voting Liberal election-after-election and trends are hard to break in Cape Breton politics. However, over the last couple of weeks, my take on the riding is that it could very well end up in the Conservative win column. If the Tories continue to lead nationally, a strong candidate like Cecil Clarke could deliver more for the riding sitting on the government side of the house, than Mark Eyeking ever could sitting in opposition, and that's the message the Tories are putting out there. While the argument is being made that his narrow win in the 2009 election, shows he isn't popular, the fact that he held onto his seat when cabinet minister after cabinet minister went down to defeat shows he must have done something right as the MLA for Cape Breton North. Overall, this race is going to be very close between the Conservatives and Liberals, but as of right now, I'm going against the consensus in this project, and predicting that Cecil Clarke will take the seat. I've been wrong before, but this time I can sense that a change is coming.
    11 04 10 Southwesterner
    Since Cecil Clarke won the nomination for the Tories, I believe this is definitely too close to call. With the advantage for the Tories in the polls, this has the potential to shift, especially since Cecil is well known in the riding.
    11 03 31 CapeBretonStudent
    With the nomination of Cecil Clake, I think this riding will shift. Just as Eyking is, Clarke is well liked in the community. Clarke as delivered for 10 years as an MLA and I could even see him getting a junior cabinet post if elected, Mark would never get that even if the Liberals did get in.
    11 03 30 Mark MacDonald
    Cecil Clarke has been working the riding very hard, and with the Conservatives at 43% in NS this riding could turn Blue. If signs voted it would not be close. This will be a riding to watch election night.
    11 03 28 M.Lunn
    Like the other Cape Breton riding, this has gone pretty much Liberal every election save the 1997 election when this area was hard hit by the EI cuts. I cannot see any reason why this won't stay Liberal once again.
    11 03 27 Tony Ducey
    Cecil Clarke is a strong candidate for the CPC but if the main page is correct, he is not nominated yet so put this down as another Liberal win.
    11 02 04 DaveP
    There is no way the NDP can win this seat. Mark Eyking will easily be re-elected. If the NDP or the Conservatives thought for one second that they could win this seat, they would have come up with the biggest names they could find, but that hasn't happened. As far as I know, the NDP doesn't yet have a candidate, while the Tories are running Cecil Clarke, who is virtually unknown in this riding. Name recognition means alot in politics, especially in smaller ridings like this one, but Clarke doesn't have it, and the NDP probably won't have it either. In the end, Eyking will emerge as the victor, as he has since 2000.
    10 10 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Avalon and Egmont are not good comparisons for this riding. Both Manning and Shea were contesting open risings making it easier for them to win it. Eyking does not appear to be retiring, so as long as he runs he will likely be on top. Still say the NDP pose a bigger threat than the CPC, but even NDP hopes of winning are quite slim.
    10 09 02 R.O.
    Until the arrival of pc mla Cecil Clarke this one wasn't even on the conservatives radar but i don't think that he would of given up his safe provincial job if he didn't feel he had some shot at the riding. the gap he has to close between liberal support and cpc support is significant but there are 2 recent examples on the east coast where it was done avalon and egmont where persoanlly popular provincial pc mla's won for the conservatives. the recent liberal caucus retreat in Cape Breton also indicates they felt it was necessary to increase the federal liberal presence in the area. which seemed odd cosidering both Cape Breton mp's have been in office since 2000 and would have a significant incumbent advantage. for now its tough to say what might happen here until we know who all the main candidates will be as the ndp is most definity a factor in the riding.
    10 08 09 Mad Caper
    With the recent arrival on the Federal scene of Cecil Clarke for the Conservatives this riding is very much up for grabs. Although he is a personally popular Politican on the North Sydney Area he still has to make inroads in the other areas of the riding and has a long way to come back to overtake the incumbent. This said it is a given that he will put a large dint in the majority of Mark Eyking. When you consider the large N.D.P. vote in other more populated areas that has shifted to the Liberal incumbent in the last number of years, that vote may return to the N.D.P. if they see a shift in the North Sydney Area of the riding an could see the N.D.P. slide up through the middle with a win of no more than 1000 votes in a very close 3 way race. The Green Party may just decide who wins this race in the end. This will be one to watch in the coming months.
    09 09 08 Observer
    I am not so sure this is a safe Liberal seat. There was a tremendous swing from Liberals to the NDP in the provincial election. And in the 2008 federal election, the NDP came very few votes behind the Liberals in Nova Scotia, and although it had more votes than the Conservatives it elected fewer MP's. This time, I think a lot is going to change and it will benefit the NDP.
    09 08 31 Scotialist
    Some time in the future I think John Morgan, mayor of CBRM, will run for the NDP and win a landslide. Until that day comes, this is a Liberal safe seat.
    09 08 25 Keen Eye
    This will be another Liberal hold in Nova Scotia with Eyking being returned to Ottawa. Eyking has held the seat since 2000 and won each election more than 49% of the vote.

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