Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-04-08 11:53:00

Constituency Profile


Gagné, Shawna

Goguen, Robert

Murphy, Brian

Steeves, Steven

Brian Murphy

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • moncton-riverview-dieppe (184/210 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 21 JaneyCanuck
    I think Brian Murphy will hang on to this seat though Robert Gougen, who is President of the provincial PC Party and a local lawyer (and like Brain M, a good guy, easy to communicate with, cares about his area) will give him a run for his money as they say.
    The addition of this riding as one to watch by the Globe and Mail surprised me. Saint John was much closer and the one everyone in NB is looking at is Madawaska Restigouche called ‘The Battle of the Titans’. This one is positively sedate by comparision.
    There are two good candidates but in the end, incumbency - alsong with a good on the ground organized team - will help Mr. Murphy back to Ottawa.
    11 04 10 Phoenix
    While this riding may re-elect Liberal MP Brian Murphy, it has nothing to do with the previous contributor's assertion that this is a ‘francophone riding’ - in fact, Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe is nearly 70% anglophone, and even elected independent MP Leonard Jones in the 1970s, a man so vocal about his opposition to bilingualism that PC leader Robert Stanfield refused to sign his nomination papers, calling him a ‘bigot’.
    That aside, the Conservatives obviously would have had a better chance with Bernard Lord as their candidate, but a lack of Bernard Lord didn't stop them from nearly winning here in 2008. Edge to the Liberals for now, but there should be no gaping jaws or bewildered expressions if this lands in the Conservative column on election night.
    11 04 05 binriso
    New Brunswick voted the stereotypically Anglophone riding=Conservative Francophone riding=Liberal last time (and 1 NDP riding in a former Liberal stronghold in Francophone NB). Old habits die hard and most peoples' loyalties to either of the main two parties (provincially and federally) seem to be forever unwavering in the vast majority of the province. While the Conservatives will probably take Madawaska, the Liberals should maintain their two south-east ridings, although it will be a lot closer here.
    11 04 02 C.A.B.
    I'm not so willing to say that just because Lord inexplicably decided not to run, that it's a sure thing for the Liberals - after all, Murphy nearly lost last time against nobody in particular, so why not again? If the Tories do as well in the Atlantic as some polls say they will, this riding could be a collateral pickup as part of an 8-1-1 sweep. I'm not confident calling it either way as of yet.
    11 04 01 M. Lunn
    After Bernard Lord announced he wouldn't be running I am sure this was a huge relief from Brian Murphy, still they almost took this in 2008 with a lesser known candidate so this is still winneable especially considering the fact the Tories have a strong track record of picking off close ridings. The predominately Francophone Dieppe will go Liberal either way while the predominately Anglophone Riverview will go Tory either way, it really comes down to who can win Moncton. Also the Liberals should hold the Francophone vote, the Tories the Anglophone Protestants, while those from bilingual families (one English speaking and one French speaking parent) and the Anglophone Catholics will determine which way this goes.
    11 03 31 Stevo
    I concur with the prevailing view: no Bernard Lord = no Tory win.
    However, I think it's only a matter of time before Lord jumps to federal politics. MP Brian Murphy is on borrowed time.
    11 03 30 R. Melanson
    I am certain that Brian Murphy will win this seat for the Liberals. Had former n.b. premier, Bernard Lord, decided to run for the conservatives, it would be a different story. However, Murphy is very well liked by his constituents. Furthermore, he has shown himself capable of capturing the french vote in the riding , even tough he his an anglophone.There is a strong acadian presence in the riding who always votes liberal.
    11 03 29 Junkie Politico
    With Bernard Lord announcing that he won't be running here, Liberal incumbent Brian Murphy is certainly more secure. Apparently the Tories are now seeking to get the NB PC Party president to run here, and I can't comment on his local profile. This riding was still too close even without Lord running for the Tories in 2008 to call it with certainty yet, though if forced to make a call call I'd give the Liberals a slight edge, if only due to the fact that Murphy's campaign would have been ready before the writ while the Tories will be hastily organizing around a new candidate. Lord may have done a slight diservice to the local Tory riding association here by not making his intentions clear sooner.
    11 03 28 Tony Ducey
    The Liberals hold on here, had Bernard Lord ran as was rumoured it would have been a different result. Still should be a close race.
    11 03 26 Mr Election
    With Bernard Lord pulling out, Brian Murphy should be able to win by 3000-4000 vote.
    11 03 26 Marco Ricci
    Bernard Lord will not be running for the Conservatives, and according to this article, Brian Murphy celebrated after hearing the news. But because the result was close in 2008, it's still possible Murphy could face a close race again. Too soon to call until we find out who the Conservative candidate is.
    11 03 25 R.O.
    although Bernard Lord just announced he isn't running federally for conservatives i wouldn't say the seat is totally safe for the liberals . as there campaign may run into trouble trying to justify the whole election as New brunswick just had a provincial vote a few months ago and conservatives maintains many advantages still in New Brunswick. Bernard Lord would of made a very strong conservative candidate but we must keep in mind they almost won here in 08 with virtually unknown Daniel Allain. and they won liberal stronghold of Miramichi with a new rookie candidate but still they better find someone soon or risk falling too far behind in race.
    11 03 23 Leo
    It was announced today that Bernard Lord is not running for the Conservatives. Put this is the Liberal column. Easy win for Brian Murphy.
    11 02 26 Junkie Politico
    I wouldn't quite call this one for the Liberals yet. The margin of victory was rather narrow last time, especially by recent Moncton standards, and the recent polling trends suggest that the Tories are on the upswing in Atlantic Canada. This is certain to make Moncton into a real battle regardless of who the Tories pick as their candidate. A Conservative insider I know is being rather elusive when I ask if Bernard Lord is planning on running here. Should he decide to run, what would have been a tight Liberal-Tory battle should become a relatively easy Tory win.
    11 02 03 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Lots of rumours about Bernard Lord making the jump to federal politics. He would be a great catch for the CPC. A popular former premier in an area where the Liberals are polling better than them. Problem though; does Harper really want a well liked, ambitious, former premier in his tight lipped, well aligned/pacified collection of MPs? Would Bernard Lord handle being stifled in a Harper led caucus? Seems to us that the answer may be no to both questions. That is unless Bernard Lord is eyeing the PMs office and is betting on (hypothetical) grumblings behind the back of Harper becoming louder and public and being in caucus would enable him to make moves to be his successor...hypothetical but...
    10 01 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    It seems to us that the wise-guys of election-predicting that run the site are caving in to partisan pressue to keep this (and other ridings) listed a win for one party or another. It seem obvious that this one should be TCTC (while leaning towards the LIberals) given how close the 2008 election was. Need to also look at the general trend which has the Torys going up and up in subsequent elections. Although we feel it will be a Liberal keep, since they did manage to hold on in the disaster of '08 and given the current Tory fortunes in the polls, we can not with all honestly give it a definitive call as there is no actual election on the horizon. We all know that much can change between then and now.
    09 09 26 Phoenix
    When Stephane Dion opted to make a campaign stop in Moncton instead of visiting more hotly-contested ridings like Fredericton and Saint John, it turned a lot of heads in New Brunswick; now, we know why he did it. After having what seemed like an unbreakable grip on this riding for the past 20 years, the Liberals were nearly blindsided here in the last election. Murphy, who was a prolific political figure in Moncton long before he became MP, was nearly toppled by a comparatively unknown Conservative candidate. Now, that same Conservative - Daniel Allain - is running again, and has some name recognition of his own. He's also been doing much more 'pimping' of himself in his role as exec director of Downtown Moncton Inc. - if there's a microphone to be found at one of the many construction projects in downtown Moncton, you'll surely find Allain within a 10-foot radius. Murphy, on the other hand, tends to get overshadowed by the more prolific and talented Liberal MP next door, Dominic LeBlanc.
    I'd still give the Liberals a slight edge here, but only if they are in a position where they can stay on the offensive in NB - that is, they feel safe enough in Moncton to pour their resources into taking back ridings like Miramichi, Saint John and Fredericton. If the Liberals get stuck playing defense, expect the Conservatives to be completely relentless in their efforts to pick up this riding.
    09 09 10 23SKIDOO
    The incumbent seems to be very popular with people or very unpopular (not much middle ground). It would take most of the undecided to vote Tory to unseat him but that is possible. I call it leaning Liberal but not a lock.
    09 09 05 Gerry
    As has already been pointed out, the fact that this has already been called is perplexing, given the extremely close race last time and the fact that three Tory seats in NB have been called TCTC! I'm not saying the Tories will pick it up. But it is CERTAINLY too close to call.
    09 09 03 mgmartin@connect.carleton.ca
    Too Close to Call,
    with only 1500 votes shortfall, the Conservatives will have a chance to take this riding, as the Liberal votes has steadily decreased and the CPC vote steadily increased since 2004. If there is a majority push, then there is a fair chance for this riding to go to the Conservatives.
    09 09 01 JJ
    TCTC. The 1,500 margin of victory for the Liberal incumbent is the closest race since the creation of this riding in 1968. The Liberals used to win this by landslide margins. Because this is a longtime Liberal riding, I'd say it is leaning Liberal right now, but could potentially be a Conservative pickup.

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