Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Saint John

Prediction Changed
2011-03-29 09:37:00

Constituency Profile


Chase, Stephen

Moir, Rob

Murphy-Flatt, Sharon

Watson, Arthur Jr.

Weston, Rodney

Rodney Weston

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • fundy-royal (36/195 Polls)
  • saint-john (164/167 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 24 John
    This has to be TCTC as the Liberals are making real noise and are tied in Atlantic Canada. Plus the fact the Liberals have a plan with Point Lepreau while the other parties do not. But for the essence, I'm saying Liberal pick up.
    11 04 21 JaneyCanuck
    This is too close to call. Normally, I would concur this is a typical and traditional Conservative riding but this appears more and more to be the untraditional election and Mr. Harper may come to rue the day he called it. At least in terms of his attemnpt at a majority. Iggy has more to loose I think.
    Among the many poll results, Atlantic Canada is the ONLY region of the country where the Liberals are ahead and this may impact this riding. Paul Zed is nopt running which led many to opine that he decided there was no chance. However, the incumbenmt has only had one term and when he ran for his 2nd chance at a provincial seat in the SJ area, he lost and was given a post in the govt of Bernard Lord. He did win a three way nomination for the Conservative Party in 2008 but he is not exactly charismatic and there is the issue of the toll bridge - which was helped mainly by his Fredericton colleague, Keith Ashfield - and other hopes from the locals have just not happened.
    The Liberal candidate is a former member of Common Council (what SJ calls its council, still using the traditional system of no wards) which means it is not that easy to be elected even at that level. He has name recognition and the Liberals are well organized in terms of getting out the vote.
    I am surprised in fact that the PM, in his visit to New Brunswick yesterday, opted to go to Fredericton - where Keith A will win easily (he is well liked and highly regarded even by some of his enemies) and not Saint John where Rodney W lost by 500 votes or so. He might have helped that riding. Iggy was here yesterday but whether this helped or not is still not clear.
    It will be a close one and I am surprised that the Globe and Mail for ex tells people to watch Moncton Riverview Dieppe which will I believe continue to be in the Liberal margins after the votes are counted. So it is too close to call!
    11 04 18 Nord Polisci
    This is most certainly TCTC. Harper is coming to visit this week showing just how nervous the Conservatives are here. They are really struggling in Atlantic Canada polls right now and could be defeated here, even with the tolls debate having been resolved. While right now, it could go CPC, it is too close at this moment.
    11 04 16 Charles F-M
    I think Stephen Case has worked hard an is respected by most of Saint John, and the remainder for the riding in Rothesay and Quispamsis is typically a Liberal stronghold. The balance of power typically falls to Millidgeville which has strong Conservative support but Chase is popular with them. Saint John is going to go more personality than party.
    11 04 02 J Keller
    No opinion. Depends on the campaign. Paul Zed could have re-taken this in most elections. The new Liberal candidate might re-take it if he appeals to the old Elsie Wayne base for some reason (is he an anti-homosexual hate campaigner? an anti-abortion hate campaigner? does he go to church much?)
    This is a hate-based riding and will vote against whoever they hate most. Not a lot like that, across the country, but the Irvings trained this one well.
    11 04 01 M. Lunn
    Even without Paul Zed running, I don't think that would have made much difference. He barely won in 2006 and narrowly lost in 2008 so this is a close riding either way. The Tories do well in the more suburban areas while the Liberals in the areas close to the downtown. I would give the Tories a very slight edge, but if the Liberals pick up any seats in New Brunswick, it will be this one.
    11 03 31 joseph peters
    Paul Zed was a superstar winning 2 Tory ridings, Fundy Royal and Saint John. The pollsters confirmed it was Zed's to win and with his record I believe he would have beat Weston who was an equal diaster as Bernard Lord's Minister. Chase, the new candidate has never lost an election, is the deputy Mayor and has a non partisan base...money is on Chase.
    11 03 31 Marco Ricci
    Deputy Mayor Steven Chase has been nominated for the Liberals, and apparently has been planning to run for a while in case Paul Zed did not. While possibly not as strong a candidate as Zed, Steven Chase could have a shot here if the NDP vote remains low, and if people are fed up with Weston. Today's Nanos poll shows the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada, so the Liberals could have a shot.
    11 03 29 binriso
    This is the riding the Liberals can pick up (dont think they’ll get miramichi) so they should devote their provincial efforts in picking it up. Possibly the only riding to switch hands after the election.
    11 03 29 Junkie Politico
    If Paul Zed were running again for the Liberals, they would stand a chance of retaking Saint John. With the Liberals instead scrambling to install a candidate at the last minute, coupled with good polling trends for the Tories in Atlantic Canada, I think Rodney Weston should hold on with a relatively increased margin. Rob Moir is a very credible candidate for the NDP as well, having secured nearly 24% and second place in Fundy-Royal in 2008. His candidacy also injures Liberal fortunes, though the Liberals in their current state in Saint John would still have a major struggle in retaking this seat even if the NDP were running a weaker candidate.
    11 03 28 Marco Ricci
    Now that Paul Zed has announced he will not be running, the Liberals have nominated Deputy Mayor Stephen Chase.
    Whether Chase wins will depend on the strength of the Liberal numbers in the Atlantic and whether he can make himself more popular than Rodney Weston.
    11 03 28 Nord Polisci
    Saint John is starting to get a little more interesting. The Liberals have announced Stephen Chase as their nominee in the election. He has won as councilor-at-large in municipal elections and is the Deputy Mayor of Saint John. While Rodney Weston is still the one to beat, the Liberals now have a very visible candidate in the riding. Will have to wait until the polls come out to see which way this one goes.
    11 03 27 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Paul Zed isn't running and the Liberals don't have anyone else waiting in the wing to run in his place. Looks like they're dropping the ball again on what should be another good shot for them. They really can't afford to keep doing this.
    11 03 28 Tony Ducey
    With Zed not running this stays Conservative.
    11 03 26 Marco Ricci
    Paul Zed will not be running for the Liberals. This is bad news for them because it will probably make it more difficult to win back the seat.
    11 03 21 Phoenix
    It looks like Harper is really trying to keep this one - he's been dropping sacks of cash left and right here as of late, and even visited to make one of the spending announcements personally. The repairs to, and removal of tolls from, the Harbour Bridge as a result of federal money being spent here have given the Conservatives a lot of positive press as of late, as has the announced expansion of the city's cruise ship terminal. Furthermore, with the provincial PC sweep of the Saint John region in the fall election, the Conservatives will have a much stronger ground game available to them with the cooperation of provincial MLAs. Granted, the Liberals may focus hard here if Paul Zed runs again, as he was once Ignatieff's chief of staff, but it would seem that Harper's funding announcements have altered the landscape enough to give Rodney Weston a strong head-start on whomever the eventual Liberal nominee will be.
    09 09 15 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Going to make a brash liberal prediction. Here's why: First we would like to disagree with Wyatt, we think this was more of an Elsie Wayne riding and less a PC riding (it is also more of a Paul Zed riding than a Liberal riding). Second, this was lost by the Liberals only because of Liberals not voting. The CPC won this ridign with fewer votes than what they lost with in 2006. Thisonly works if Grit voters sat it out and they will not do that again. Finally, it Zed runs again, Iggy will be hell bent to get him back. Recall on election night, a visibly angry Iggy talking to a reporter (can not recall who exactly) about the loss of various incumbents and one of the first names he mentioned was Paul Zed. Sounded like someone he'd really want back in his caucas...
    09 09 04 R.O.
    Saint John is likely a very interesting race in any future vote partly due to the fact it was very close last time and not seen as an obvious riding to flip parties. but either way Rodney Weston has been the conservative mp for the last year and delivered some results from ottawa to the riding like funding for various projects. and i think he has a good chance of holding the seat of course he is likely to face a tough challenge from the liberals though. its possible they will run Paul Zed again here but as a former mp its hard to say what kind of campaign he would or could launch and if he'd have the same amount of resources as the new mp. its more than likely too close to call for the time being i suspect.
    09 09 01 binriso
    If Paul Zed runs again this should be a win for the Liberals. If not than it is probably TCTC leaning CPC.
    09 08 30 NB Voter
    With the amount of support Pual Zed will get from Ignatieff, I think this could be a big swing back to the Liberals. Not many seats in NB will do this, but this will be a Liberal gain.
    09 08 28 Haligonian Political Junkie
    On the surface, Saint John looks like the most likely Conservative riding in New Brunswick to return to the Liberal fold. Firstly, 5,000 fewer votes were cast here in 2008 than in 2006, and the Liberal vote itself dropped by 4,000. The Conservative vote total, however, dropped by 2,000, and the Tory vote share remained essentially stagnant when compared to 2006. Therefore, Rodney Weston's win in 2008 seemed to be due more to Liberals staying home rather than a shift to the Tories. This first point is further explained by the second point, which is that the Liberals will not be campaigning on the 'Green Shift' in the next election. The Green Shift was deeply unpopular in New Brunswick, with Corporate Research Associates releasing a poll in September 2008 showing only 23% of New Brunswickers being in favour of it compared to 49% who were opposed (28% had no opinion or idea about the Green Shift). Saint John, which was doing what it could to rebrand itself as an energy hub, aided by the then-promised construction of a second Irving refinery, would obviously not respond well to a plan that was seen as punishing the fossil fuel industry. This may explain why 4,000 Liberals stayed home, with Paul Zed's local personal popularity preventing these Liberals from shifting to the Tories. If Paul Zed runs for the Liberals again, this time unburdened by a Green Shift party policy, he should be able to win. However, whoever the Liberals nominate stands the best chance of knocking off a Conservative incumbent in all of New Brunswick. I'll wait to see how the dynamics of the actual campaign play out to make a final call, but right now I would give the Liberals a slight edge, assuming on the return of many of those Liberals who stayed home in 2008.
    09 08 27 wyatt
    Weston will hang on here. This is naturally a Conservative riding, being one of only two that survived the 1993 massacre. Since Elsie Wayne's retirement and '04 (the first year she didn't run), the Tory vote has continued to grow. Weston will take the incumbent advantage and open up a lead of 2,000.

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