Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011


La prévision a changé
2011-05-01 22:15:00

Profil de circonscription


Bogosta, Christelle

Jacob, Pierre

Lambert, Benoit

LeBlanc-Bauerle, Nolan

Paradis, Denis

Christian Ouellet

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • brome-missisquoi (170/170 Polls)
  • compton-stanstead (2/172 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 05 01 Stéphane Gaudet
    On dit que les anglophones du Pontiac et de certains comtés moins riches de l'Ouest de Montréal seraient passés en masse au NPD. On a de bonnes raisons de penser qu'ils ont fait de même ici. Mais ils ne sont pas les seuls, beaucoup de francophones jusqu'ici bloquistes faisant la même chose. Et l'aveu du sondeur Segma (voir mon message plus bas) selon lequel les résultats au début du sondage n'étaient plus du tout les mêmes à la fin du sondage (33% pour le NPD) montrent que l'enquête a été faite pendant la progression du NPD et alors qu'elle n'était pas finie. Je suis persuadé que le NPD est maintenant en avance dans ce comté, devant le Bloc, les vieux partis rouge et bleu loin derrière. Denis Paradis ne s'est pas aidé en promettant une université pour Lac Brome ! Et avec la faiblesse des libéraux tant au Québec que dans le reste du Canada, Denis Paradis rate son retour, comme Martin Cauchon dans Outremont. Victoire NPD.
    11 04 23 Stéphane Gaudet
    Sondage Segma: BQ 32%, NPD et LIB ex-aequo à 26%, PCC 11% et Vert 5%. L'article est publié dans La Voix de l'Est. Le sondage a été fait de lundi à jeudi dernier et le sondeur révèle que le dernier jour, le NPD était à 33% et que le Bloc avait chuté de 19 % !!! Une lutte à trois où n'importe qui peut gagner dans Brome-Missisquoi.
    11 04 23 SouthpawPundit
    The NDP is tied for second with Liberals at 6 points behind BQ and saw its support surge from 19% to 33% over the period that the poll was conducted.
    The pundit sees nothing stopping the wave, which will ensure that ex-NDP turncoat Christelle Bogosta (the BQ candidate) gets what she deserves. This woman cares only about power and is about as principled as any Tory (though to be fair. she's far less likely to but her hand in her sisters' wombs) I know, so it's nice to see things backfire for her.
    11 04 23 rebel
    An interesting Segma poll suggests the Bloc is ahead 32% to a tied NDP and Liberals with 26% each and the Conservatives a very distant 11%. That certainly suggests that the NDP has legs in Quebec though why they seem to be draining Liberal and Conservative votes is not apparent and may not be typical.
    11 04 19 Marco Ricci
    This riding is currently being profiled by CPAC. First, the NDP: the NDP admits they were blindsided by Christelle Bogosta becoming a separatist and joining the BQ. The NDP has to scramble in this riding to get their campaign together with a new candidate. Next, the Conservatives. The Conservatives have a new candidate who started late, and on top of that the 2006 Conservative, David Marler, is calling out Stephen Harper over the in-and-out scheme, and says the new Conservative candidate is weak and is being muzzled by Harper. But while the NDP and the Cons can't win here, they can affect the vote. If the NDP takes votes away from the BQ, it can help Liberal Denis Paradis. But if Paradis is to win, he needs all the federalist votes behind him, and not to go to the Conservatives. The BQ is down in the polls, and this could help Paradis, but the Liberals are still not back up to their 2008 level of support either. We'll have to check the polls for the BQ and the Libs in the final week to see who is on top.
    11 04 16 Marco Ricci
    It's hard to know exactly what will happen here. Denis Paradis would normally be the favourite because of his almost winning in 2008 and the fact that the incumbent has retired, leaving Paradis as the candidate with the most name recognition and experience. However, because the Liberals appear to be down in Quebec from 2008, that advantage may be taken away. On the other hand, the NDP is taking a lot of votes from the BQ in the polls too, so if the BQ loses a lot of votes to the NDP, the Liberals might still be in contention to win.
    11 04 14 Neal
    The gnome from Brome is no longer around, and the Tories are not really in the game this time, and the Bloc MP has stepped aside, so their incumbency advantage is lost. This Time Paradis coasts to a relatively easy win. Margin of victory at least 5%.
    11 04 11 Paul Tremblay
    This is now an open seat and this fact can only help Denis Paradis even though his party is not doing that well in Quebec, he is the clear federalist alternative to the Bloc and he is personally popular.
    The only major difference between the Bloc and the NDP is the separation issue and even there many NDP supporters in Quebec are separatist or at least have separatist tendencies; I am not surprised at all to see former NDP candidates running for the Bloc, but this is not a good riding for this type of strategy, while Brome-Missisquoi is not conservative enough to give a strong support for the CPC, it is clearly a non-socialist riding (and I will add that the federal Liberals continue to be seen in Quebec as closer to the CPC than to the NDP from a policy point of view).
    The Liberals will win this seat by at least 1,500 votes.
    11 04 09 joey joe joe
    Denis Paradis is back again after missing by 800 votes last time in a down year. BQ incumbant is gone and they are running an NDPer who didn't even pull 10%?? Liberals are slightly up in the polls vs. 2008 so could be a pickup as name recognition .
    11 04 05 Marco Ricci
    The media report that Ignatieff is planning a stop here this week, so it appears that the Liberals are focusing on this riding.
    It will also be interesting to see what the reaction is to the new BQ candidate, Christelle Bogosta. It is surprising that a candidate who ran for the NDP in 2008 has crossed over to the BQ. Why did the BQ poach a candidate from the NDP instead of finding their own? Liberal candidate Denis Paradis is criticizing her for changing parties, meanwhile she is saying that voters have turned him down in the previous 2 elections. Who will prevail with voters?
    11 04 02 M.Lunn
    This is one of the few rural ridings in Quebec the Liberals stand a good chance at winning. The incumbent MP is not seeking re-election and Denis Paradis who was a former MP is running again. Also this riding is 15% Anglophone who usually vote solidly Liberal so as long as the Liberals stay above 20% in Quebec, they have a decent shot here.
    11 03 30 Tony Ducey
    Open seat plus former MP running again equals a win here for Denis Paradis.
    11 03 28
    Paradis devrait réussir son retour, la candidate bloquiste ex-NPD ne semble pas de taille. Le scandale des commandites et l'usure du PLC après 13 ans au pouvoir sont chose du passé, et les gens voteront davantage pour Paradis que pour Ignatieff ou le parti.
    11 02 28
    The incumbent is retiring and the race was fairly close last time. I'd say this will be the election when the capable Denis Paradis gets back into the house.
    11 02 25 Marco Ricci
    The incumbent BQ MP, Christian Ouellet, announced today that he is retiring. The BQ is rumoured to be picking former NDP candidate Christelle Bogosta as its replacement.
    The retirement of the incumbent gives former Liberal MP Denis Paradis the opening he has been waiting for to take back this riding, after coming very close in 2008. BUT in order for him to do it, the Liberals still have to run a good campaign and have better numbers in Quebec. Otherwise the opportunity will slip through Paradis' fingers.
    09 12 09 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Paradis is quite popular and he's running again for the Liberals. He came quite close in the last election and we thought he'd retake the riding. We're going to hedge out bets again and say Liberal pick up. Conservatives know they can't win this riding, so they will be focused elsewhere in Quebec trying to earn those 10 seats needed for their majority; this is not a naturally separatist riding, so that favours the Liberals; Liberals know that they don't have much room to grow at this time, so they will be focused the few ridings they can win, such as this one.
    09 11 23 R.O.
    I honestly don't see this one staying bloc for the long term for a couple of reasons . first off its historically a federalist riding and seems somewhat out of place as a bloc riding. secondly the current bloc mp Christian Ouellett is allready 75 years old although he doesn't look that old but still you'd be surprised if he continued to keep running at that age as he'd be too old to even sit in the senate as an example. in other words the bloc will be looking for a new candidate here sooner or later. but in the meantime it has become a vote split riding as former liberal mp Denis Paradis and the conservatives are spliting the federalist vote . but either way when the current mp retires i'd be surprised if it stays bloc.
    Je ne ceci vois pas honnetement un bloc restant pour l'a long terme pour quelques raisons. premier de son historiquement un federaliste prenant et semble un peu deplace comme un bloc prenant. deuxiemement le bloc le mp Christian Ouellett actuel est allready 75 ans vieux bien qu'il ne regarde pas ce vieux mais toujours vous seriez etonne s'il a continue a garder courir a cet age comme Meme s'asseoir dans le senat comme un exemple. en d'autres termes le bloc cherchera un nouveau candidat ici plus tot ou plus tard. mais entretemps il est devenu une division de vote prenant comme ancien mp Denis Paradis liberal et les conservateurs fractionnent le vote federaliste. mais ou la facon quand le mp actuel prend la retraite je serais etonne s'il reste le bloc.
    09 08 26 Paul Tremblay
    Denis Paradis (former MP from 1995 to 2006) will once again be the Liberal candidate in Brome-Missisquoi. He is quite popular in the riding and the only reason he lost in 2006 and 2008 was the extremely poor showing of the Liberals in Quebec. The Liberal Party will certainly pick up a few seats this year in Quebec and I expect Brome-Missisquoi will be one of them.

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