Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011


La prévision a changé
2009-08-30 14:07:00

Profil de circonscription


DeLorme, Bernard

Dubé, Matthew

Ferland Drolet, Nathalie

Lescarbeau, Nicholas

Lessard, Yves

Mercier, Jean-François

Yves Lessard

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • chambly (195/195 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 28 Tory in Dixie
    If the NDP are riding at 35 - 45 % in the polls in PQ, then the very first riding they won back in a 1990 by election is going to be one of the ridings that go their way.
    11 04 24 expat
    A Léger poll published today showed a race very much in flux:
    37% Yves Lessard - Bloc Québécois
    24% Matthew Dubé - NPD
    15% Jean-François Mercier (indépendant)
    15% Bernard Delorme, Libéral
    7% Nathalie Ferland-Drolet, Conservateur
    Clearly the entry of Mercier (a popular, if vulgar, Québec comedian) is shaking up some of the math here, but the Bloc should still be considered the favourite. The relative strength of the NDP, running a competitive second place, makes sense given the province-wide numbers we've been seeing, and the fact that Chambly was the first place in Québec to send a NDP MP to Ottawa.
    Definitely a race worth watching in the final days.
    11 04 24 Jean
    A Léger poll conducted April 19-20 and published April 24 gives : 37% Bloc, 24% NDP, 15 Independent, 15% Liberal and 7% Conservative. (With a MoE of 4.4%.) It looks like it will be a contest between the Bloc and the NDP. The independent is a professional comic not running seriously and some of his supporters might decide to vote more seriously on election day, but it may be difficult to predict where the votes will go. In theory, this is a riding where the NDP could potentially do well, and even potentially win, had they wanted to. However, it is unclear if their candidate, a McGill student, even wants to win. His page on the NDP website is almost silent. He was quoted by a local weekly as saying that he would be more disappointed by the Montréal hockey team not doing well in the series than by his losing his election. This leaves some practical advantage to the Bloc.
    11 04 21 binriso
    Okay the Bloc are most likely gonna win but how about this: The first ever NDP seat in Quebec from the 1980s returning to the fold as part of a number of new seats for the party. A good storyline no? With the NDP at 36%, this is one of the ridings to fall.
    11 04 17
    Avec l'investiture de Jean-Francois Mercier il y a un flou sur le résultat de l'élection, en cas de vague de contestation contre le Bloc
    11 03 30 Tony Ducey
    This is an open seat as Lessard is not running again. That said expect an easy win here for the Bloc candidate.
    11 03 28 M.Lunn
    Too close to Montreal for the Tories, too far from Montreal for the Liberals thus Bloc by default.
    09 08 29 JF Breton
    Château-fort bloquiste. 21000 voix de majorité lors des dernières élections.

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