Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011

Jeanne-Le Ber

La prévision a changé
2011-04-29 23:20:00

Profil de circonscription


Benskin, Tyrone

Bruneau, Mark

Lafontaine, Pierre

Noël, Richard

St-Cyr, Thierry

Studd, Eileen

Thierry St-Cyr

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • verdun-saint-henri-saint-paul-pointe-saint-charles (204/204 Polls)
  • westmount-ville-marie (22/187 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 05 01 Ron F
    The weakness in the french speaking ability of the NDP candidate turns this from a solid NDP ain to iffy. there are nowhere enough young left Anglophones and Allaphones who will make up the difference if I have to make a call the NDP will ust sqeak by the Bloc otherwise TCTC.
    11 05 01 Marco Ricci
    It's surprising if the Liberal candidate didn't show up to the debate, because this is a seat the Liberals had a chance in when the campaign began. The Liberal campaign in this riding is stronger than last time with a more focused candidate. With the collapse of BQ support, this riding would normally be leaning Liberal. But if NDP support is going to double or triple from what it was last time, it is possible that the NDP can leapfrog from 3rd place in 2008 to 1st in 2011. This was one of the NDP's better showings in 2008, so it would be logical to assume it will be a pick-up this year.
    11 04 30 André
    I live in this riding, and this seat will go to the NPD this election. The demographique here is changing fast and the Bloc and Liberals are bleeding support. My wife saw a guy trying to hand out fliers for the Liberal candidate in the metro this week but nobody wanted to take them. This riding is a natural fit for the NPD.
    11 04 29 Paul Tremblay
    Province-wide polls may well suggest a NDP landslide, but the leaders' itineraries tell another story and so do all those single-riding polls when taken together. There will be a significant increase in NDP support, but not to the levels needed to win a large number of seats.
    One word of caution regarding the NDP predictions for this riding specifically : past results suggest that for some reason JLB seems to have an unusually large number of both hardcore Bloc and hardcore Liberal voters. The questionable French of the NDP candidate could be a problem with separatist voters and even with francophone federalists. However the demographic changes in the riding could help the NDP. Also word on the street is that except for Jews, anglophones in Quebec are swinging en masse for the NDP despite their positions on the Constitution and applying portions of Bill 101 at the federal level.
    I think there is a real chance that the NDP could pick up this seat but a Bloc win also remains a possibility thanks to vote-splitting, however a Liberal pickup now seems unlikely.
    11 04 28 MB
    Given the number of polls that have come out and the consistency of the numbers in favour of the NDP, it should be clear by now that this will have an impact on seats. This site doesn’t seem to have registered this shift at all. With the NDP polling consistently at around 40%, they will surely pick up more than the two seats predicted here. The current predictions are based on what the Quebec political landscape looked like 3 weeks ago. As others have said, this is one of the ridings that should be turning orange.
    11 04 29 Frango
    I live in the riding and I predict the NDP to win it cleanly. Any bloc vote lost will be picked up by the NDP or wasted with the green party. It is important to understand the change in demographics...the riding is much more anglophone than 2 or 4 years ago especially PSC, St Henri and Griffintown. I voted green last time because of a sense of distaste for all the parties. For the anglos first priority is bloc out. The anglos and ethnics will actually go and cast a ballot for that reason first. Second priority is a conservative minority. This makes it easy you ride the wave and vote NDP since you know they will not be in power anyway. Bearing in mind the fear mongering Bob Rae effect the conservatives will try to promote in the final days...they really have nothing to fear. the west and ontario vote will be more than enough for the conservatives that the NDP will not win the election but they will win this riding.
    11 04 28 keefr
    This is one of the ridings which will probably turn NDP orange this time, considering recent polls. A modest drop for both the BQ and Libs from 2008 should produce an NDP victory here and in several other ridings in Quebec.
    11 04 27 Verdunian
    Clear NDP pick-up, It's silly to run a prediction site and be so scared to call clear outcomes like this.
    I was at the candidates debate tonight and the Liberal didn't show, he apparently skipped the debate last night too. The Liberals have clearly given up.
    It was incredible how nervous the Bloc guy was, clearly stressed and nervous and fighting for his political life. Whatever his internal polls are telling him it isn't good.
    This appears to be one of the few ridings in Quebec where the NDP have a strong organization, everyone I know has had a phone call or visit from the NDP team, and most people I talk to tell me they are voting NDp, most often for the first time.
    Clear NDP pick-up
    11 04 26 Clarence
    It's time to start calling which ridings in Quebec will go NDP. This one has to be on the list. Consider the numbers, as the polls show them to be:
    The Bloc's goose must be cooked in close ridings like this one. The Liberals are not the beneficiaries of the Bloc's misfortune. The NDP was reasonably close in this riding last time when they finished 20 points off the pace. Double their support (15%) and you get 30. A Bloc decline makes the Bloc incapable of winning. And the Liberals don't seem likely to squeak this one out either, as their share of the vote is likely to decline slightly.
    Quebec in 2011 is shaping up just like Ontario in 1990 for the NDP. In 1990 they got a late surge in the polls and narrowly won practically all three way races they found themselves in.
    11 04 26 Dr Bear & prof Ape
    Dragging out former premier Parizeau is going to cement BQ chances here. As in no chance! Note the crowd who came out for him, old french seperatists. The BQ did very well portraying themselves as the voice of Quebec over the last few years and wooed non-seperatists to support them. Now dragging out this polarizing skeleton is going to result in any non-francophone vote to go scurrying elsewhere. Younger voters will be turned off by his us or them rhetoric. This riding was traditionally Liberal and fairly multi cultural. It's likely now that some of the support the BQ enjoyed will go NDP, while the Liberals hold their own. Still TCTC but we'd say the NDP have the egde with their current poll numbers.
    11 04 26 Marco Ricci
    It's hard to know what will happen in this riding now. It was leaning towards the BQ when this election began, with perhaps a small chance of a Liberal pick-up. Now it looks like the BQ may be collapsing and that the race here will be between the Liberals and the NDP.
    11 04 25 Garth Brewer
    We now have several pollsters (the most recent being Environics) reporting that the NDP is in the lead in Quebec. There are only a few days until the election. I think the NDP is probably going to win this riding and many more. I am not on the ground in Quebec so cannot pick out which other ones are likely. I would say that at least half of the predictions of BLOC and Conservatives wins should be changed to ‘too close to call’. The Liberal Party seems to be holding its vote so I think many of the predictions of Liberal MP's holding their ridings in Quebec might be right.
    11 04 25 bm
    so i'm a voter in this riding. my thought process about how to vote has shifted as a result of its sudden prominence. i think telling you about my decision-making may help the pundits and the predictors in putting a finger on the pulse of the jeanne-le-ber voter.
    i am firmly in the camp of not wanting to give harper a majority, and will vote any manner to reach that end. i admire the bloc incumbent in this riding, finding him hard-working and decent. given that initially i expected him to win safely, and that his victory would maintain my goal of keeping harper's hands off of absolute power, i had intended to vote green.
    not so much anymore. i have taken a step back to reflect. now this riding is a three-way race, my vote has suddenly much more weight. since the rest of canada seems so reluctant to let the bloc in on a coalition, it is in my interests to encourage as many liberal and ndp seat as possible, in the (faint) hope that there may be a coalition government. if the ndp surges enough to possibly win here, then maybe i should encourage that with an ndp vote. (i unfortunately cannot bring myself to vote liberal, who admittedly also have a possible shot at this riding.)
    take my submission as you will, but it does reflect a little bit about how the ndp numbers are a game-changer for the quebec voter.
    11 04 23 Teddy Boragina
    I want to call in to question the idea that the NDP is winning the sign war.
    There is no logical way this could happen during a surge like we are seeing, and others from the area are saying this is not true.
    11 04 23 R.O.
    If the ndp really are gaining ground in quebec at expense of bloc the question is what seats are they actually competitive in outside of Outremont and Gatineau ? it appears to be urban ridings that have a history of going liberal or bloc not rural seats that have gone either bloc or conservative. they may have a chance here although i don't really know , we need to see more detail regional info on these polls to try and figure out whats going on in quebec at moment .
    Si le NPD sont vraiment de gagner du terrain au Québec, aux frais du bloc, la question est ce que les sièges sont-ils effectivement compettiive en dehors d'Outremont et de Gatineau? il semble être circonscriptions urbaines qui ont une histoire d'aller libérale ou d'un bloc pas circonscriptions rurales qui ont disparu soit bloc ou conservateur. ils peuvent avoir une chance ici mais je ne sais pas vraiment, nous avons besoin de voir plus en détail info régionale sur ces sondages pour essayer de comprendre ce qu'il se passe au Québec au moment.
    11 04 23
    On the ground the NDP have wpn the sign war in Jeanne Le Ber with the NDP holding their big rally today in Montreal..
    11 04 23 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    This very much the type of riding the NDP could and should pick up. At the moment their new found support is from BQ voters. If they hit the BQ lightly, the Liberals will win this riding. If they hit the BQ hard, the NDP will win this riding. If this all fizzles (which the NDP have a tradition of doing; peaking too early) then it will likely be kept by the BQ.
    11 04 22 MF
    I'm going to call this one NDP...Jeanne-Le Ber is the kind of riding that is ripe for an NDP breakthrough.
    11 04 22 WAC
    If the NDP are in fact leading (or close to it) in Quebec as three polls suggested yesterday, this seat will be one of the first to go NDP.
    11 04 21 NDP-Worker-Bee
    I'm a partisan, so take this as you will, but I was doing door to door in the condos in Griffintown area, and the NDP was polling very well, with neither the Bloc or the Liberals rivaling the responses. Francophone women and young people seem very on board with the NDP this election. I'm not saying the party will take the riding, but the fact I was getting these responses in some ritzy condos, it does tell me its worth thinking an NDP win here is a possibility.
    11 04 20 expat
    If the NDP surge on the island of Montreal is real, this riding is one of the places it will show up.
    It is a very mixed riding (60% francophone, remaining split about evenly between anglophones and allophones), 21% visible minorities, and part working class, part yuppifying, part inner suburban territory. It actually reflects overall Montreal demographics relatively well.
    Visiting friends in Verdun yesterday, my dubiousness about the NDP's ability to break through here was somewhat challenged. I was told that Benskin has been visible in the neighbourhood, actively going door to door and and with a campaign being very present in the community. Plenty of campaign signs for all 3 parties - but the NDP signs were at least equal to the Bloc and PLC. In a dinner group of 8 francophones from the neighbourhood, 4 said they were definitely voting for Benskin, only one of whom had previously voted NDP. Of the remaining 4, 2 were sticking with the Bloc, and 1 was undecided between the Liberal and the NDP, and 1 was undecided between the Bloc and the NDP.
    If the Layton/NDP wave keeps cresting here for the next 12 days, I would look for this to be a very close 3 way race on election night, and could very well end up being a surprise NDP pick-up.
    11 04 19 rsg
    Yes, there's no denying the NDP have increased a little in popularity, but realistically that hurts the Bloc more than the Libs in this riding. Bruneau has been working this riding for awhile and will likely take ir back from the Bloc.
    11 04 19 Teddy Boragina
    The Bloc could lose this seat... to the NDP. If the NDP can get just a few more points in the polls in Quebec, this seat becomes vulnerable.
    11 04 18
    The NDP are surging in Que drawing soft nationalist votes away from the Bloc
    11 04 17 MF
    Tyrone Benskin sounds like an interesting candidate for the NDP, though I don't know what he's like on the campaign trail. I agree with points raised by binriso and Guy Concordia. Binriso is right this would likely be an NDP pickup if they're polling high enough in Montreal; demographically this is the kind of riding the NDP would pick up. However I also think Guy Concordia is right to point out that a strong NDP showing is likely to benefit the Liberals here. This is an interesting riding to watch.
    11 04 16 JEB
    Binriso is off on this one. Nun's Island's voting population is close to 12,000 and they have been voting liberal for ever. In order to speculate on a NDP win in JLB you would have to assume that everybody would shift from Michael to Jack in Nun's Island, which will not happen here, for sure. In 2008 the Gritz got 17,500 and NDP 7,700. The key issue will be CPC majoritary or minoritary. If there is a threat for a majority Harper gvt., I am assuming that that this will create an increase in the voting percentage and it will be in the Liberals favor, especially in Jeanne - Le Ber.
    11 04 15 Guy Concordia
    The NDP have made gains in Québec since the last election, but not necessarily from the Liberals. Much of their support actually comes from the Bloc - just look at the changes between 2006 and 2008 in Outremont and Gatineau. If Liberals and NDP both do reasonably well on election day, the Liberals should take this riding from the Bloc.
    11 04 14 binriso
    If the NDP provincewide continue to gain momentum, this seat would be one of the first in Montreal to fall to them.
    11 04 13
    The NDP candidate of the last election was an open separatist. He probably took more Bloc votes than liberal.
    11 04 09 joey joe joe
    NDP running a weaker candidate this time so Liberal have a better chance. Most of the NDP time is being spent elsewhere.
    Liberal candidate is stronger then 2008 plus I think the growth of the English community in all those new condos on Nuns Island will help the Liberals.
    11 04 04 Marco Ricci
    Liberals are improving in new Quebec polls and BQ are declining a little, so the Liberals may have an outside shot here afterall.
    11 04 03 syllap
    The Liberals miss the chance of taking the seat by putting this candidate who put his posters before the writ and got people talking against him right from the start.....
    St-Cyr although a bit arrogant will prevail, NDP alas chose a candidate unknown in the riding, so some of their francophone votes to return to Bloc....
    11 04 03 PPF
    Easy victory for the Bloc. They have a strong electoral machine the NDP is presenting a well known to english speaker candidate (and unknown to most french speaker) So le Bloc by 3k is reasonnable.
    11 03 31 JEB
    One must be totally in the dark about JLB riding to pretend the Bloc is going to take it with a 3000 majority! For the first time in decades, all Liberal are united to Mark Bruneau since senator Lavigne is out of the political picture in the riding. Bruneau has been on th campain trail for 2 months now. He has received unequivocal support from many stakeholders as well. In 2008 the CPC candidate who ran, was an ex JLB liberal who brought votes with him when he left. The key issue will be finding out how many votes Bruneau will get back from the NDP's 7700 in 2008. That was with star candidate Daniel Breton who is replaced by no-name (in the riding) Tyrone Benskin. The BQ majority is presently 1300 and the Liberals should take it.
    11 03 30 Paul Tremblay
    It is obvious that the best case scenario for the Liberals in Quebec will be to keep the seats they already have, with perhaps one or two isolated gains which could compensate a few losses.
    The controversy regarding who would be the Liberal candidate in Jeanne-LeBer, even though it happened many months ago, can't possibly help the party.
    Mark Bruneau is not a bad candidate, but not being bad isn't enough to obtain votes that would normally go to other parties. And he is not a good fit for that riding in particular anyway.
    The Bloc will win this riding by about 3,000 votes.
    11 03 28 Tony Ducey
    Think the Bloc hold onto this seat. St.Cyr seems to be vocal in the House of Commons.
    11 03 27 Marco Ricci
    Like many ridings in Quebec, a lot of what happens here will depend on the regional numbers in Quebec. The Liberals do not have good numbers in Quebec right now. If they aren't able to raise those numbers, it will be hard for them to win. If they are able to raise the Liberal numbers during the campaign, they have a shot here. The early election signs being put up on the street did indeed make the news, but I don't think that will be a major factor compared to other issues. Unlike last time, the Liberals do at least have a candidate who has been nominated for a while and who has been out in the riding.
    11 03 27 bsmith
    Probably staying Bloc. The Bloc MP has been using his parliamentary budget to blanket the riding (especially in the key Verdun area) with promotional material on a weekly basis for the past two years. Ignatieff is unpopular in Quebec and the Liberal candidate - a millionaire from Ontario living in the Old Port - won't connect with this working class riding. The Conservatives are fielding a strong, fully-funded campaign this time around and that will also sap votes from the Liberals in their stronghold on Ile-des-Soeurs.
    11 03 27 WAC
    I really don't think enough people change their voting intentions because a candidate put up their signs 3 days early. That being said, this race is TCTC. Although Verdun is not one of their traditional Montreal bastions having gone PC in 1984/88 and Bloc in 2006, it is low hanging fruit for the Liberals. It largely depends on how well Ignatieff resonates with Quebec voters during the campaign.
    11 03 25 Mathieu
    the Liberal candidate was everywhere in the last 6 month... he is a good candidate and will win it even if it will be a tough race.
    11 03 25 Mark
    The conservative and NDP candidat are unknown. The recent resignation of ex liberal MP and senator ( Lavigne ) won't help the liberals with their reputation in this riding. The liberal candidate also made the news by putting his signs as early as wednesday ( 3 days before the election is called ).
    09 10 03 JEB
    The Bloc and the Liberals are more or less 50-50 leading this ridding. The days where the liberals could run a red lamp post and win are long gone. Demographics have changed and young, blue collar francophones have taken over aged anglophone traditional liberal voters. The riding?s geographical redesign (addition of St-Henri and little Burgundy) has also helped the Bloc. Since Liza Frulla's lost in 2006 by 3000 votes (weak federalists, strong Quebec nationalists shifting)the liberal are struggling to win back the majority simply because they were not able to get a candidate that can blend in the local texture of political tissue. To win, the liberals will have to find a strong local personnality with a strong opening towards the Quebec nationalists (Verdun, Crawford Park, St-Henri) as well as a profound respect for those who believe in the history of Canadian federalism (Nun's Island, Irish community in Pointe-St-Charles and Little Burgundy. Christian Feuillette, Mark Bruneau, Nathalie Le Prohon are not the answer for a Liberal Victory. In the absence of a strong local candidate, people from JLB will again give the edge to the Bloc candidate who did a great PR job so far in the ridding, talking to his people on a regular basis.
    09 09 25 Isa06
    Now that we have an actual candidate (Le Prohon) before the election (and a full on nomination contest, all the better for visibility in the riding), this riding should go back to the Libs.
    09 09 04
    Seat will be kept by the Bloc. Last election the conservatives were not present in the riding and the candidate was backed and helped by Raymond Lavigne the ex liberal MP. The Bloc has a strong campaign machine in this riding. Participation will most likely be down and the extra mile needed to win will be provided by that machine.
    09 09 01 Nick J Boragina
    This is the only ‘West Island’ riding that voted Bloc last time. Last election Dion was Liberal Leader. Lets do a very short History Lesson. Other than Dion only one other federal Liberal Leader did not become Prime Minister. Why? Well thats because he resigned to become Premier of Ontario instead. Dion is the only Liberal Leader to ever be forced from the job without becoming PM.
    Dion was forced out, and the Bloc will be forced out of this riding just the same.
    09 08 26 Smok Wawelski
    This one goes back to the Liberals. A strong candidate, combined with a leader other than Dion puts the weight on the Liberal side.
    09 08 24 Jon on Politics
    This will be the Lberal Party's easiest pick-up in Quebec.
    An inexperienced and non-present young Bloc MP who has made no mark in his riding or in Ottawa.
    The Liberals know he is vulnerable and wil place a star in the riding at the last moment to ensure the win.

    Navigate to 2011 - élection générale | Actualité provinciale | Soumettez l'information ici

    Canada Federal Election - 2011
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision -
    © Milton Chan, 1999-2011 - Email Webmaster