Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011


La prévision a changé
2009-08-28 16:58:00

Profil de circonscription


Bergeron, France

Blackburn, Jean-Pierre

Forest, Pierre

Patry, Claude

Ringuette, Claude

L'hon. Jean-Pierre Blackburn

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • jonquiere (136/149 Polls)
  • lac-saint-jean-saguenay (84/162 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 05 01 Marco Ricci
    Stéphane makes an important point - in 2008 there was a riding poll predicting the BQ would beat Blackburn, and he ended up winning by a large margin. That means we should also be cautious in looking at riding polls for any other ridings too, because they could also be inaccurate. Nevertheless, the fact that the NDP is polling well here means Blackburn could still be in a close fight.
    11 04 29 MF
    Going to call this for the NDP. They have a very strong candidate in Claude Patry and now that it's clearly a Tory/NDP race, more of the Bloc vote will move over to Patry.
    11 04 29 MD
    Le même sondage du 29 avril mais analysé par le journal régional donne l'avance à Claude Patry 34 % contre 31 % pour le conservateur Jean-Pierre Blackburn. Avec l'ajout des bloquistes qui ont vu ce sondage et qui appuieront désormais Patry, c'est Patry qui va l'emporter.
    11 04 30 SouthpawPundit
    Calling this for either the Tories or the NDPs is foolish at this point. Nearly 3 weeks ago I called this Tory, figuring there was no way the NDP growth would ever what it is now. Turns out I underestimated just how well things are going.
    11 04 29 Stéphane Gaudet
    Selon le sondage CROP, Blackburn à 34% serait chauffé par le candidat-vedette du NPD qui recueillerait 32%, un écart dans la marge d'erreur. Le Bloc n'est pas dans la course à 25%. Mais on avait dit la même chose en 2008, que Blackburn était menacé par la jeune bloquiste, et finalement ce fut une victoire facile pour lui. Je crois à la même chose cette année: victoire de Blackburn, mais ce sera plus serré qu'en 2008.
    11 04 27 Josh S.
    Poll out yesterday showing NDP only six points behind Blackburn. This is one the NDP will take from the Cons.
    11 04 27 binriso
    The Conservative campaign seems to have no momentum in Quebec and Blackburn may lose here. The Conservatives have lost about 1/3 of their support from last time it seems and we could see a 3-way race here on election night.
    11 04 26 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    A recent poll in this riding has a three way race between CPC NDP and BQ with the CPC ahead a few points of the NDP. Liberals were nowhere to be found. Similar situation in Chicoutimi with the BQ ahead slightly. Totally different story in Roberval where the CPC polled over 50%.
    11 04 26 expat
    I previously said that this would be a Conservative hold, but now I've got to consider it too close to call.
    A poll conducted for the local newspaper ‘Courrier du Saguenay’ from April 18 to 21st showed the NDP candidate surging into second place, just a few points behind Blackburn. (36% for Blackburn, 30% for Patry the NDP candidate, and 26% for the Bloquiste -with the Liberal back at the kind of 5% level the NDP used to draw in ridings like this).
    If this is an indication of the depth of the NDP surge in Quebec, expect this to be a close result on election night. (Helped by the fact that in Jonquiere the NDP don't have the ‘accidental candidate’ problem they have in some ridings - Patry is a very well known local union leader and highly credible candidate.)
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    Jean-Pierre Blackburn got over 50% both times and the poll numbers for the Tories have maybe gone down a bit in Quebec, but not enough to cost him his seat. He may only get a plurality this time around, but I predict this will stay Conservative.
    11 04 11 SouthpawPundit
    With a popular Tory incumbent and the BQ losing some of its left flank to the NDP, there's no way this riding will be changing hands. Even if the Tories do lose ground to the Liberals and the BQ, these defections will easily be made up for by BQ losses to the NDP.
    11 04 02 M.Lunn
    The Bloc would love to win this back and may have a shot however considering Jean-Pierre Blackburn got over 50% in the last two elections and holds the position as a cabinet minister I would still give the edge to the Tories although definitely not a certainty.
    11 04 01 expat
    Mulcair was quoted in yesterday's Montreal Gazette that the NDP candidate here - Claude Patry, a high profile local union leader among Alcan workers in Arvida - would defeat Blackburn, heaping praise upon him as a talented candidate.
    I don't buy it - while this is a working class riding with a strong union presence, I don't see the NDP being ready to break through in the Saguenay/Lac St. Jean region.
    But if Patry is running a more aggressive and visible campaign and dramatically increases the NDP vote here, the question becomes who it helps/harms most. Does he take federalist votes away from the Conservative, or does he take more left leaning votes away from the Bloc? My guess is that he probably hurts the Bloc more, and Blackburn becomes an even better bet for re-election... although the Conservatives are in serious trouble in Quebec, and if their vote collapses, they could lose even relatively strong seats like this.
    11 03 23 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Odd that the most separatist region of Quebec might return more CPC MPs than Quebec City proper. Would say Blackburn is solid provided that the BQ does not gain any traction on HST funding for Quebec. Blackburn is too popular for much else to knock him off...for the moment...
    09 09 10 JFBreton
    Les conservateurs ont utilis? cet ?t? les ressources d'une firme priv?e de Toronto, Responsive Marketing Group. Selon leur analyse, seuls Maxime Bernier (Beauce), Jos?e Verner (Louis-Saint-Laurent), Christian Paradis (M?gantic-l'?rable) et Jean-Pierre Blackburn (Jonqui?re-Alma) pourraient dormir tranquilles. Le si?ge des six autres ?lus est en danger s'il y a des ?lections cet automne (Lawrence Cannon, Sylvie Boucher, Denis Lebel, Steven Blaney et Daniel Petit). L'analyse conclut ?galement que si les intentions de vote remontent l?g?rement, le si?ge de Jacque Gourde (Lotbini?re-Chute-de-la-Chaudi?re) serait sauv?.[source: Le Devoir, 10 septembre 2009]
    09 09 03 David
    Avec le PC à 20-25% dans les sondages, il est vrai que le Ministre Blackburn serait sain et sauf ici. Cependant, la moyenne des derniers sondages au Québec, depuis le début de l'année, met le PC à environ 10% au Québec, ce qui est nettement insuffisant pour les députés conservateurs du Québec. En conséquence, la victoire de Blackburn est loin d'être assurée.
    Il ne faut pas non plus ignoré le fait que ce comté est un comté très ‘syndicaliste’ et touché par les dossiers du développement régional de l'assurance-emploi et de l'industrie forestière... tous des dossiers dans lesquels les conservateurs sont loin d'avoir réussi!
    TCTC pour le moment!
    09 08 27 wyatt
    With a lead of 7,600 and more than 50%, this is safe for Blackburn and the Tories.

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