Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011


La prévision a changé
2011-05-02 02:11:00

Profil de circonscription


Adam, Olivier

Allard, Philippe

Archambault, Sylvain

Duceppe, Gilles

Gourd, François Yo

Lachapelle, Serge

Langford, Charles K.

Laverdière, Hélène

Mourkes, Dimitri

Gilles Duceppe

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • laurier-sainte-marie (184/210 Polls)
  • outremont (25/178 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 05 01 Stéphane Gaudet
    Les chiffres indiquent une victoire NPD, mais parce que c'est Duceppe, je maintiens ma prédiction. Combien de fois a-t-on prédit une défaite de Jean Chrétien dans St-Maurice ? Il gagnait toujours quand même. Mais comme le Plateau (=Québec solidaire) et le Centre-Sud composent le comté, le NPD a de bonnes chances de réduire à quelques centaines de votes la majorité de Gilles Duceppe.
    11 04 30 R.O.
    Wow i shocked when i saw this one had been moved too close to call . site is being serious right ? as much is i dislike Gilles Duceppe with a pashion i cannot invision him losing his seat. good chance if he keeps it on may 2 that he not stay for long and there be a by-election at that point it might go ndp . well Layton did have a big rally in the riding its highly doubtfull all the people at rally if even many live in this riding , i'm sure many were from areas where ndp much stronger like Outremont. Duceppe's margins are very strong and even if ndp gains votes they have a long way to go. no denying bloc in trouble this election but somehow i can't envison there being no Duceppe in Ottawa after may 2.
    Wow, je choqué quand j'ai vu celui-ci avait été déplacé trop près de l'appel. site est en cours de droit graves? comme beaucoup je n'aime pas Gilles Duceppe avec un i PASHION ne peut pas lui invision perdre son siège. bonne chance si il le garde sur le 2 mai qu'il ne reste pas longtemps et qu'il n'y ait une élection partielle à ce stade, il peut aller NPD. ainsi Layton a eu un grand rassemblement dans la circonscription très douteuse de ses tout le peuple lors d'un rassemblement si nombreux à vivre, même dans cette circonscription, je suis sûr que beaucoup de régions où ont été beaucoup plus forte du NPD comme Outremont. Duceppe marges sont très solides et même si les votes du NPD gains qu'ils ont un long chemin à parcourir. pas de bloc nier en difficulté cette élection mais de toute façon je ne peux pas envison qu'il n'y a pas Duceppe à Ottawa après le 2 mai.
    11 04 30 TCR
    The local candidate, although probably not well known, is not a student. Instead, she has an impressive resume and various degrees. So when people look at the candidate present, they see someone of caliber rather than just a paper candidate. This probably reflects the fact the NDP already had an above-average presence in this riding and a scroll through old posts will show for how long the NDP has been eyeing this riding. If the NDP is around 40% province-wide, and then this riding is typically about 10% higher than the province average, doesn't that force one to conclude it'll be an NDP victory?
    Furthermore, there are people who would simply vote for Duceppe when it was believed he would be the leader of the party of the strong bloq quebecois. Similar to Kim Campbell, the massive collapse of the bloc in Quebec is joining to be accompanied by the fall of its leader.
    11 04 29 Paul Tremblay
    If the NDP does nearly as well in Quebec as some people think they will, they WILL win this seat and it won't even be close. This is one of only a few ridings where the NDP actually has something that could be described as an organisation, past election results suggest that there is actually an NDP base in the riding (small but still way above the provincial average) and the vote for Quebec solidaire provincially is also well above the average.
    However, as I mentioned elsewhere on this site, for various reasons I don't believe the NDP will get numbers in the ballot box that would be anywhere near what some province-wide polls suggest, and for this reason alone I predict that Gilles Duceppe will keep his seat... but just barely.
    11 04 29 binriso
    Okay so either the NDP beat Duceppe this election or I think he will resign the leadership since they will likely do poorly and the NDP wins the resulting byelection. Jacques Parizeau is likely a significant detriment to the campaign in this riding.
    11 04 28 expat
    I've been reluctant to believe that Duceppe could lose here, but talking with numerous friends in the riding, I have become convinced it is going to happen - the number of Bloc voters who are switching to the NDP (at least for this election) is astonishing me - among my circle, I'd say it is about 2-1, with only the most committed separatists sticking with the Bloc.
    If this riding were in Toronto or Vancouver, it would be the most solid NDP seat in either city. It is full of the kind of urban professionals, academics, intellectuals, students, artists, civil servants, journalists (lots of Radio-Canada/CBC staff live here, since the headquarters is here) who are socially conscious; left on cultural, environmental and international issues; and would vote NDP if they were Anglo. Between the Plateau and the Gay Village, it would be hard to find a more self-consciously progressive set of neighbourhoods anywhere in the country.
    With a 73% Francophone population, the riding is also nationalist, and having am ex-Maoist separatiste Party leader as their MP has been a good fit.
    But these days, nationalism is definitely taking a back seat to leftism, and a sea change in voting intentions is happening. Since the NDP already started with a strong base here (about 17%) than they had in most of the rest of the province, a shift of less than a third of the Bloc vote to the NDP is enough to make the change (and that doesn't even account for Liberals, Greens, Conservatives and past non-voters who are going to add to the NDP total).
    In what is going to be one of the biggest chocs of election night, the Bloc leader is going to go down to defeat in his own riding. Completely unbelievable!
    11 04 28 Oafah
    Plainly put, Duceppe is in big trouble for a couple of good reasons.
    1) Invoking the ghost of Parizeau on the island of Montreal is suicide, even if it is in the East. I think he was actively sabotaging his own riding to salvage the south shore on that one, especially when you consider his age, and that he might be close to retirement from politics anyhow.
    2) His riding is right next to the new-found center of hope for the NDP - Outremont. Incidently, the could apply to Mount Royal, which is looking equally rough for the Liberals these days, dare I say.
    3) If you adjust all 4 major parties vote numbers from 2008 with an average of the latest poll numbers, the NDP comes out ahead(ish), with each party (especially the Bloc) losing support.
    4) Considering the Orange Crush is not even 5-6 days old and still gaining momentum among second-choice NDP supporters, you can expect a further bump in coming days leading up to the election, especially in dense ridings where word travels fast and internet culture is more of a factor.
    Long story short, if you force me to make a choice here in this the tightest of all ridings, given the present conditions, I choose the faceless-nameless NDP candidate over the most successful seperatist politician in Quebec history.
    11 04 27 J.Mc.
    If the MP for this Riding wasn't Duceppe, I'd say the NDP might have half a chance (left-wing, urban riding). However, party leaders rarely lose their seats, absent a complete collapse. If the Bloc starts showing signs of going the way of the Creditistes, he might have some cause for concern, but I don't think the Bloc are THAT bad off - yet.
    11 04 26 myNDP2senseworth
    This is the riding of the 2011 election.
    Jack is up.
    Gilles is down.
    Based on 2008 results...
    ...If Gilles loses one third of his vote to the NDP candidate then it will be a virtual tie.
    I'm also going to argue on the premise that this phenomenon got started in Outremont in 2008, and has locally grown in homes, cafes and bars and has moved east and south. Hochelaga, Jeanne-Le Ber, Longueuil-Pierre-Boucher, Rosemont-La-Petiite-Patrie and Sainte-Lambert... All of these ridings are too close to call and some will fall to the NDP.
    I think two things are happening.
    Quebec is embracing Jack, and rejecting Gilles... This is the riding where that may be proved.
    11 04 26 Pierre de Laval
    Qui l'eut cru, mais Gilles Duceppe est en danger de perdre aux mains du NPD. N'oublions pas que ce comté est, au provincial, le comté de Amir Khadir.
    Ce serait toute une défaite pour le Bloc de perdre leur chef et leur premier député. Seul espoir ici : Le NPD n'a pas d'organisation digne de ce nom, contrairement au Bloc.
    Ce sera une lutte très serrée.
    11 04 25 TCR
    I live in this riding, and have generally voted bloc. Similar to my friends who have also voted bloc in the past, and those who haven't, we are all planning to vote NDP cette-fois-ci. We aren't a general poll, but I suspect there are a lot of people like us who have voted bloc out of respect for Mr.Duceppe (He is the leader), rather than fully endorsing the bloc. En bref, people who haven't voted for the bloc quebecois in the past know to vote NDP this time, and people who did bloc without great enthusiasm (like me) are voting NDP.
    Also, the recent EKOS poll shows the NDP at 38% and the bloc around 25%! And I honestly don't think that vote % is being driven by English West Montreal! Jackomania is primarily a francophone event, suggesting that most of the NDP vote is actually in the East end of Montreal.
    11 04 25 Stéphane Gaudet
    Wo, ça va faire les folies ! Faut quand même pas rêver... Duceppe gagnera sa circonscription, la candidate néo-démocrate fera certainement un bon score, mais jamais elle ne sera assez forte pour terrasser Duceppe qui est bien implanté dans son comté, jouit d'une machine efficace et a été réélu sans interruption depuis 1990 avec des majorités écrasantes. Le Bloc perdra des sièges le 2 mai, mais pas ici !
    11 04 26 SouthpawPundit
    The most recent poll has the NDP ballooning to a once-unfathomable 13.5 points in Quebec and a TWENTY-FOUR point lead in Montreal. There is currently 2.3 NDP voters in Montreal for every 1 BQ voter. The NDP is polling 7.5 points higher than the BQ and the Liberals COMBINED. People are making every excuse imaginable for why Liberal/BQ strongholds will somehow stay out of NDP hands, when the math clearly shows that the Montreal gains have to come from somewhere. Quebec Solidaire is very strong around here, and its often been one of the most NDP-friendly ridings in Quebec, so that ‘somewhere’ is clearly L-STM. Don't be sad, Gilles, Parizeau seems to be itching for a comeback anyways.
    11 04 25 dr Bear without Prof Ape
    I would throw a party if the NDP were to win this riding but realistically I think Duceppe will keep it. I think it will be uncomfortably close for Duceppe.
    11 04 25 Neal
    NDP Quebec insiders I know who have suffered through years in the wilderness in QC are telling me that this riding may very well be in play. These are the same people whom i doubted in 2007 and 2008 on Mulcair and doubted in 2008 when it came to Amir Khadir and the QS. I can assure you that these guys who go back over 20 years with me have been working tirelessly in good times and bad to get the NDP to this point.
    By building first the UFP (Union des Forces Progressistes) which was an amalgam of socialists from the parti des Travailleuirs, Parti marxiste-Leniniste, the remains of the old NPD QC, and left leaning Pequistes, and them morphing it into quebec Solidaire, i can assure you that they HAVE the organization in that part of the city to make a win at least within the realm of possibility. I am not ready to call it for the NDP yet, but i will say that it is no longer a slam dunk for the Bloc and its past-the-best before date leader Duceppe. Given that I expect the Bloc to lose 6-10 seats provincewide, i think that even if Duceppe holds on, he'll wish he'd lost.
    11 04 24 Guy Concordia
    Duceppe only won 50% last election and the NDP nearly came second even though they only spent $30K - less than half the limit. Given that the NDP surge in Québec has come mostly at the expense of the Bloc, I think they could win it if they spend the limit.
    11 04 23 SHS
    Duceppe, easy. If it were any other candidate, I'd say the NDP might challenge here. But as long as Duceppe is running in this riding, it will go overwhelmingly to the Bloc. The Liberals may fall to third place, unlike in '08 when they came in second, since the NDP are polling better in Quebec these days. But there's no serious threat to Duceppe.
    11 04 23
    The NDP are holding their Montreal rally inside this riding today and the sign war is being won by the NDP.
    11 04 22 Teddy Boragina
    Part of me can't believe that I'm writing this so soon after poo-pooing the idea, but my math has the NDP ahead in this riding. This might be the end of the road for Duceppe, even if the Bloc were to retain 40 or so seats in the province. This riding has always had a progressive base that could tilt towards the NDP (the only QS MNA is from here)
    Unless the NDP starts pulling back below 25% or the Bloc above 33%, this riding will fall on election night, and will take with it one of the most successful party leaders in modern history.
    11 04 21 SouthpawPundit
    Usually, when you're a socially liberal ex-Maoist with tons of union and latte lefty support, being in Canada's most leftist riding works to your benefit. Sadly for M. Duceppe, with polls having the NDP up 9 and up 7 on the BQ in the past day, he'd be better off running in a place like Joliette or Terrebonne. Maybe it's time for the NDP to remind Quebeckers how their scion of ‘sovereignty’ feels about adopting the U.S. dollar. It's definitely something that could make progressive voters think twice about M. Duceppe.
    11 04 21 Teddy Boragina
    When Duceppe wakes up and sees the newspaper headline that the NDP is ahead of the Bloc across Quebec, he will call out all his supporters here in Laurier. If the NDP ends up leading the Bloc on election-day in Quebec, Duceppe's own seat could fall. For now, however, this is just one poll.
    11 04 20 Neal
    Bloc will hold this riding, but watch for NDP gains in this one. It is one of 5 I think the NDP has real potential with long term in Montreal.
    This election may well signal the beginning of the end for the Bloc, and with a strong all out campaign, it sets the stage for the next election for the Dippers. The other ridings they need to target are, in addition to Outremont: Hochelaga, Rosemont Petite patrie and Pointe de l'ile.
    11 04 16 MF
    Gilles Duceppe of course will hang on in this progressive riding (worst showing for the Conservatives in the country last time and one of the NDP's better showings in Quebec). I do expect the NDP to come a clear second here.
    11 04 01 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    Duceppe has been losing somewhere around 5 points per election since he first won this seat, with a blip in 2004. The Liberals and NDP meanwhile have been neck and neck for second here for almost a decade.
    Using our fixed election dates as a base, this means that in the 2027 election, Duceppe might lose!
    Of course, right now we are predicting 2011 results, which means a Duceppe victory.
    11 03 29 John
    Duceppe lose? You have got to be kidding. Party leader and incumbent. This riding is no contest. Duceppe would have to do something really, really stupid to lose this riding. He'll be back for another term in office.
    11 03 28 M.Lunn
    This is Gilles Duceppe's riding and thus it is rare for leaders to lose their own, never mind this is a pretty solid Bloc riding to begin with thus even without him they would probably easily win this.
    11 03 28 Tony Ducey
    Duceppe will trounce whoever his opponent will be.
    10 01 26 Kyle H
    No doubt Duceppe will win here, and when he retires, the Bloc will will still keep the riding. People need to remember that when Duceppe won this in 1990, it wasn't because he was widely known among the populace - its because he was the Bloc-backed candidate (he ran as an independent then). Sovereignty has a big base in this riding, much bigger than the federalist base.
    And to make a funnier point - I remember looking back at 2008 and seeing everyone going on about how the NDP finished second last time, and that this would be a strictly NDP-leaning seat for federalist votes. Well, I figured that wouldn't hold in 2008 - the Liberals have an advantage here. The university, the large artisan population, the gay village - all these are left-leaning, Liberal voters. The NDP vote is almost an aberration.
    10 01 26 Kyle H
    No doubt Duceppe will win here, and when he retires, the Bloc will will still keep the riding. People need to remember that when Duceppe won this in 1990, it wasn't because he was widely known among the populace - its because he was the Bloc-backed candidate (he ran as an independent then). Sovereignty has a big base in this riding, much bigger than the federalist base.
    And to make a funnier point - I remember looking back at 2008 and seeing everyone going on about how the NDP finished second last time, and that this would be a strictly NDP-leaning seat for federalist votes. Well, I figured that wouldn't hold in 2008 - the Liberals have an advantage here. The university, the large artisan population, the gay village - all these are left-leaning, Liberal voters. The NDP vote is almost an aberration.
    09 09 11 Marco Ricci
    Yes, I think it's true that this was the Conservatives' worst result in all of Quebec, and maybe even in Canada. Not only did they finish behind the BQ, Liberals and NDP, but also the Green party. It's clear they have no support in downtown Montreal. It may also be because this riding has Montreal's Gay Village - gay voters are not particularly close to the Conservatives.
    Everyone knows that this seat stays with Duceppe while he is in office, and so predictions here are now about what comes down the road. The NDP does have some support here, but we have to remember it is the Liberals who finished 2nd here in 2008, and this used to be a Liberal riding before Duceppe won it many years ago. It could therefore also be a Liberal target when Duceppe retires.
    09 09 07 Stevo
    Aside from this being Duceppe's riding, Laurier-Sainte-Marie is notable for (and correct me if I'm wrong on this) having the WORST showing by a Conservative candidate in the country - 5th place, and 4.8% of the popular vote!
    If Tom Mulcair next door is re-elected once more and thus stabilized as a long-term MP, and giving the NDP a nice base in Montreal, I agree that this riding is a very likely NDP target once Duceppe calls it quits.
    Le candidat Conservateur s'est retrouvé en 5eme place dans la derniere élection et avec le souten de 4,84 % des gens, le pire de n'importe quel candidat du PCC au pays. Quand M. Duceppe décidera de partir de la vie politique, je crois que l'NPD pourra menacer le Bloc ici, en particulier si M. Mulcair juste à coté d'ici survivra!
    09 08 18 Nick J Boragina
    Duceppe was elected here, officially, as an Independent back in the early 1990s. The Liberals were never able to threaten him during the mid and late 90s. In fact the only party that could knock him off is the NDP (taking away his left-wing base) but in order to do that, they'd been to first pull out of their current pathetic polling numbers, and second do better, quite a bit better, within Quebec than they did in 2008. There are no signs of this.

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