Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011


La prévision a changé
2011-05-02 02:21:00

Profil de circonscription


Arseneault, Daniel

Cloutier, Jean

Gagné, France

Latendresse, Alexandrine

Mérel, Philippe

Verner, Josée

L'hon. Josée Verner

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • portneuf (36/178 Polls)
  • quebec-est (147/235 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 05 01 TCR
    That poll was probably a positive in this case.
    This riding was almost won by Verner back when the conservatives had no seats in the Quebec City region. To be tied in the poll with the NDP is not enough for an NDP win as their vote is typically lower than what is actually polled. Verner will be able to win because I don't think there will be enough NDP voters that actually show up to vote and remove her. Furthermore, she has been a progressive voice in parliament, and has good popularity. There may also be voters who vote conservative simply to block the inexperienced NDP candidate.
    There is even a youtube video of the NDP candidate on the Quebec show informan. A comedy show which was displaying various candidates with no chance of winning. Jokes being largely based on the little experience they actually had and how they were paper candidates. The poll will now motivate many voters to not allow this candidate to replace Verner. Combined with the already general pattern of Conservatives outdoing their poll numbers, and NDP voters going under, Verner should be able to survive - but it may be a long night.
    11 05 01 Marco Ricci
    This riding needs to be changed to 'Too Close To Call' now that Josee Verner is tied with the NDP in the latest poll.
    11 05 01 JC
    NDP should take Papa St. Laurent's Old Riding, as there is now a poll out showing the NDP and Conservative Tied, NDP have the momentum and will win.
    11 04 30
    This is no longer a safe seat for Verner..She is tied according to a local poll with the NDP and is going down
    11 04 29 Paul Tremblay
    Josee Verner can thank her lucky star that the single-riding poll published by Le Soleil suggest a tie between her and NDP candidate Alexandrine ‘iced vodka’ Latendresse with the Bloc far behind, if there is one riding in Quebec City where NDP supporters are likely to choose to stay home this is the one, the NDP candidate is just too much of a joke, and Bloc supporters certainly won't switch their votes to the NDP just to reject the CPC.
    11 04 29 Stéphane Gaudet
    Oh la la ! Too close to call! Un sondage CROP place Verner à égalité (37%) avec la candidate NPD. Le Bloc loin derrière à 17%, les libéraux à 8%. Je pense que le PCC va l'emporter, mais rien n'est sûr, ça pourrait être une victoire orange lundi soir si les électeurs se mobilisent contre les conservateurs... ou pour Jack !
    11 04 19 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    TCTC - CPC, that one we can get behind. The Tories have polled very well in this riding for some time and while we are sure they will not do as well as they have in the last election, they should keep this quite handidly.
    11 04 18 JFBreton
    Deux nouveaux sondages ce matin concernant les intentions de vote au Québec. Dans les deux cas, forte progression du NPD et stagnation du vote libéral et bloquiste. L'effet de la montée du NPD au Québec sera sans doute de maintenir des conservateurs en poste dans certains comtés, par division du vote. C'est notamment le cas ici. Victoire PCC.
    11 04 09 joey joe joe
    Margin of victory in 2008 is too much for anyone else to overcome.
    10K votes and 20% this will be a conservative Alamo if things in the province go badly which isn't certain at the moment.
    11 04 02 M.Lunn
    Most recent polls in Quebec City show this is the only riding the Tories would hold onto, thus they have an edge, but even there the lead is not insurmontable for the Bloc Quebecois. At this point the Tories are probably more focused on holding the other two seats which they are in jeopardy of losing, but if things turn for the worse for them, this could become vulnerable.
    11 03 31 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    Riding level polling shows the Conservatives are still ahead in this riding by a fair margin.
    11 03 30 Paul Tremblay
    Josée Verner won in 2008 by a huge margin, but her margin of victory was way down compared to 2006.
    This is an important fact as other Conservative incumbents in or around Quebec City (except for the moron in Louis-Hébert who lost his seat) maintained or increased their margins in 2008.
    No one ever accused Verner of being a Mensa member, she looked like a complete idiot regarding the arena issue, and frankly every time she opens her mouth she loses votes.
    I am not willing to predict a Bloc win here at this point but I think it is a real possibility. Too close to call for now.
    11 03 31 Tony Ducey
    One of Harper's top Quebec ministers, I see Verner holding this seat again in 2011.
    11 03 27 Jean
    In 2008, Verner won by a very large margin. Also, she has a lot of visibility in the media, more than the other Conservative members. It is difficult to see where the Bloc could take the votes to change the situation. Not likely from the Liberal votes. In theory, it could recuperate a few of the NDP votes, but in the few previous elections the trend has been more in the opposite direction, with generally the NDP and/or Greens eroding a few points from the Bloc vote. A reversal of the situation in this riding would require 11% of the 2008 voters to pass from the Conservative electorate to the Bloc electorate, something that is not obvious. If the Conservatives keep ridings in the region, this will be one of them. This riding was the only one of the ridings in the region where the latest Segma poll (21-24 March 2011) currently found the Conservatives in advance, the numbers specific to that riding being 38% Conservative, 29% Bloc, and 13% Liberal (however, with a large margin of error of 7%).
    11 03 15 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Though we think Vernier will survive, she is not safe. The whole arena thing is going to hurt the CPC badly. The Liberals will likely continue fan the flames on this. They won't win the seats but if they take a whole swath of Conservative MPs they will hurt Harper...and that may be a good strategy...
    11 03 10 Marco Ricci
    A new Léger poll released today shows the Conservatives have apparently fallen way behind the BQ in the Quebec City region because of the arena controversy:
    11 03 06 Marco Ricci
    Josee Verner held this riding with a good margin in 2008, but it's possible that she could be vulnerable in the next election. A Segma poll projection from January 2011 shows the BQ leading here 39% to 32%.
    On top of that, Verner is facing heat from the Mayor of Quebec City for not giving federal funding to the Quebec hockey arena. This could be a close election between Verner and the BQ.
    09 09 17 Stevo
    Many said this, and other Quebec City-area ridings were CPC flukes, however I think that would be an inaccurate assessment. Quebec City is quintessentially ?Quebec middle-of-the-road?: not as lefty/politically-correct as the Liberals, not as socially conservative as the CPC, and not as hard-nosed sovereignist/nationalist as the Bloc. Therefore, it's rational to presume that Quebec City will oscillate between those three parties, and at the moment, the pedulum has swung in the CPC's direction. This is wholly different from a fluke scenario. And yes, by that analysis, I do think the Liberals will eventually recover their vote in Quebec City.
    Mme. Verner's margin took quite a hit in 2008 vis-a-vis 2006. I'm not yet quite comfortable calling this a victory for her as I am in calling Beauce a victory for Maxime Bernier.
    La ville de Qu?bec a la tendence d'etre centriste ? l'?gard de l'id?ologie politique, alors il est raisonnable de pr?voir que les faubourgs de la ville vont osciller entre les Lib?raux, le Bloc, et les Conservateurs. Au moment, les Conservateurs sont les plus forts dans la r?gion, mais ca peut absolument - et rapidement - changer, comme nous avons vu avec les ?l?ctions provinciales au Qu?bec. La victoire de Mme. Verner ?tait beaucoup moins impressionante en 2008 qu'en 2006, alors je ne suis pas pret ? d?clarer qu'elle gagne la prochaine fois.
    09 09 10 JFBreton
    Les conservateurs ont utilis? cet ?t? les ressources d'une firme priv?e de Toronto, Responsive Marketing Group. Selon leur analyse, seuls Maxime Bernier (Beauce), Jos?e Verner (Louis-Saint-Laurent), Christian Paradis (M?gantic-l'?rable) et Jean-Pierre Blackburn (Jonqui?re-Alma) pourraient dormir tranquilles. Le si?ge des six autres ?lus est en danger s'il y a des ?lections cet automne (Lawrence Cannon, Sylvie Boucher, Denis Lebel, Steven Blaney et Daniel Petit). L'analyse conclut ?galement que si les intentions de vote remontent l?g?rement, le si?ge de Jacque Gourde (Lotbini?re-Chute-de-la-Chaudi?re) serait sauv?.[source: Le Devoir, 10 septembre 2009]
    09 08 27 wyatt
    Though her total dropped from '06, Verner maintained a more than 10,000 vote lead. This is one Quebec seat the Tories can be sure of holding.

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