Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011


La prévision a changé
2009-08-25 16:08:00

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Asselin, Gérard

Ferguson, Gordon

Forbes, André

Gélineau, Jacques

Genest-Jourdain, Jonathan

Gérard Asselin

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • charlevoix (76/194 Polls)
  • manicouagan (133/135 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 04 28 expat
    This is a very likely Bloc hold - results here have been pretty one-sided in recent elections.
    Manicouagan (I spent about half my childhood growing up here) has potential for the NDP - it is the kind of northern industrial territory, blue collar, unionized that votes NDP in northern Ontario, but not in Quebec.
    If somehow the NDP wave were to sweep up to here, the riding would be well-served. Instead of being represented by a somewhat right wing nationalist like Asselin, they would elect Jonathan Genest-Jourdain - a very bright young Innu lawyer who has been an activist on environmental justice for northern communities. He'd represent the riding well, and would be a great assest for the NDP caucus - a smart young Francophone First Nations MP could become very high profile very quickly. (And the irony of electing him here in light of the Andre Forbes racist blow-up earlier in the campaign would be very sweet all-around.)
    11 04 13 Stéphane Gaudet
    Comté solidement bloquiste, les déboires des libéraux et du candidat Forbes n'auront aucun impact sur le résultat. Comté acquis d'avance au Bloc.
    11 04 10 SouthpawPundit
    As odd as this may seem nowadays, before 1984, this riding was in fact a Liberal stronghold. 1984 and 1988 saw Tory landslides (with Mulroney running here in 84). Nowadays, the BQ's unbeatable here and has been since 1993 while the Liberal Party is about as relevant here as the Rhinos or Christian Heritage. In 2008 the Grits finished 40 points behind the BQ and 15 or so behind the Tories.
    Why such a long preamble? Why because this background is central to the reason that Andre Forbes was able to last so long here in spite of his having headed a small local White supremacist group years ago. It's unlikely that the race politics of Sept-Isles, QC are a common topic of conversation at Liberal strategy meetings, and equally unlikely that in the past two years a Liberal strategic or political ask ever found cause to ask ‘I wonder how our candidate in this random Northern Quebec riding where we won 10% of the vote last election is doing?’ The Liberal Party has been struggling so badly in recent years (relative to its spectacular successes of epochs past), that it's very easy to imagine that nobody would ever concern themselves with what's going on in Manicouagan save for that bored NDP researcher who decided to look up obscure major party candidates on a lark.
    As a New Democrat, I'm glad that our researchers find cause to do stuff like this. Exposing nutty Liberal candidates creates a political climate in which the NDP and the media can draw attention to some equally nutty Tories who have been sitting MPs (Hello Mr. Anders and Mr. Sweet) for years and create a sort of Skeleton War between the two parties. Naturally such a scenario would result in a lot of NDP and BQ gains.
    Though it's almost an afterthought at this point, the BQ will win this riding, as they've been doing for the past 2 decades.
    11 04 10 Frank
    While being a Bloc fortress, the Liberal being now out and the NDP having no strong issue in the riding to run on, the Conservative could cause a surprise in this ridding this time. More likely a closer election in favor of the Bloc due to the weakness of the current Conservative candidate but a provincial increase in favor of the PCC could help win this one.
    11 04 07
    With the Liberal candidate being ejected from the party for comments made on First Nations, followed by a rather strong BQ support, this is easily a BQ win.
    11 04 06 B B
    With what the Liberal candidate said on the Innus, he will probably finish at the last place and many of its votes will move to the conservatives. But it won't be enough, easy Bloc victory.
    11 03 31 Tony Ducey
    Mulroney's old riding, I think it would take a candidate the stature of mulroney to win the riding back for the CPC. Easy Bloc hold.
    11 03 28 M.Lunn
    This was Brian Mulroney's old riding, but much has changed in the political dynamics of Quebec. While the Tories have recovered some of the Mulroney support in Quebec, the vast majority of it still is with the Bloc Quebecois and prior to him, this rarely went PC anyways.
    09 08 24 Observer
    This is safe BQ territory. Federal parties have little support in this sovereignist riding.

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