Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011

Mount Royal

La prévision a changé
2009-08-25 16:11:00

Profil de circonscription


Cotler, Irwin

Dumais, Gabriel

Itcush, Jeff

Johnston, Diane

Sarwer-Foner, Brian

Weizfeld, abraham

Zajdel, Saulie

L'hon. Irwin Cotler

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • mont-royal (184/184 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 04 29 Paul Tremblay
    I still expect a Liberal win but I now expect it will much closer than I previously thought because of the Jewish vote which is transferring to the CPC faster than expected. However most voters are not Jewish and it is not obvious at all, to say the least, that the CPC is doing anywhere near what they need with those other voters in order to pick up this seat.
    A few words on lawn signs : Bear & Ape are mostly right, they are generally non existent in Quebec although balcony signs remained popular to some extent among separatist renters during the 1980s -- and signs on public property are not usually considered as ‘lawn signs’, election signs on public property can only give you at best a sense of how strong the local organisation is anyway. And as I live in Vaudreuil-Soulanges I can say that except for that separatist family which lives at the end of the exit 12 westbound ramp in Rigaud, which always has big PQ/BQ/Yes signs just in front of their home at every election, lawn signs were and still are pretty much non existent even in Vaudreuil-Soulanges.
    11 04 27 Oafah
    I chose Mount Royal for my first ever post on EP simply because of the sudden political climate change in Quebec. Mount Royal is, by far, the most likely seat in the whole country to stay Liberal, and probably the most likely seat in the whole country to vote for ANy incumbent.
    That said, I have no choice but to select ‘no opinion’, as the NDp is now polling as high as (according to Forum Reaearch) 17-points ahead of the Bloc, with the Cs and Ls all but gone. Fact is, even this rock-solid stronghold is now in-play, as is literally every seat in Quebec.
    11 04 25 WAC
    The NDP are polling well in Quebec and in Montreal. But lets not great crazy. They are on the verge of taking a number of BQ and Liberal seats - just - not this one.
    11 04 25 Teddy Boragina
    Even if the Liberals only manage 4 seats in Montreal, this will be one of them.
    11 04 25 JaneyCanuck
    I do not live here but have been here enough to know that as a member of the Jewish community that I will be VERY surprised if Mr. Coutler, well respected by many people, not just inside our own community natinally, will be re-elected. And 68 is not that old, even if I am not quite a baby boomer. Also, this riding was once held by Trudeau and also Sheila Firestone.
    Signs are meaningful but it is getting out the vote that counts. This is a Liberal hold, even if it is the last one in Quebec.
    11 04 26 William K
    une surprise à venir ici - a surprise in the making here...
    une circonscription que les conservateurs vont arraché des libéraux... a riding that the conservatives will take from the liberals
    la raison... the reason .... Harpers foriegn policy .. la politique étrangère de Harper...
    upset for the Conservatives.... vitoire de justesse pour les conservateurs
    11 04 25 Ghosts of Elections Past
    There might not be election lawn signs in hoighty-toighty Mount Royal, but I was in Vaudreuil-Soulanges during the 2008 federal election, and there were lawn signs everywhere, on both public and private property
    I was also in Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup during the recent by-election and saw plenty of lawn signs around.
    Just because it doesn't happen in Mount Royal, doesn't mean it doesn't happen in the rest of Quebec.
    11 04 24 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
    Funny that! I'm home for Easter weekend. My gf from Hamilton was here too. First thing she noticed in my neighbourhood (NDG): No election signs (she made the comment as soon as we parked the car Friday). My mother had never heard of election signs on private property, nor had anyone else at the table this evening (except those who have lived in other provinces). Had supper in the plateau last night(Mulcair's riding); no election signs. Just dropped my gf off at the bus station (Duceppe's riding); didn't notice any election signs on the drive there or back. Visited friends in Cote St Luc and Dorval; again, no election signs. We admit we did see ONE sign this morning coming from church (an NDP sign) and we all took notice because it was unusual. No I think some partisans are trying to stir up rhetoric because the odd place here or there has a sign on their balcony (could only be a partisan who'd have such a sign on their balconies) and trying to give the illusion to those out of province that lawn signs are common in Quebec. No, lawn signs became passe after the 1980 referendum and unless you can recall that day (which I'll admit that I can), you have very rarely seen people advertising their political choice. That still has not changed. Too bad this site dosen't post photos, otherwise I'd tell these people to proove it!
    11 04 24 expat
    I'm not one who believes that campaign signs are a reliable indicator of public sentiment. But the idea that there are no signs on private property in Quebec for fear of reprisals is completely inaccurate.
    In my neighbourhood (part of the Plateau, Outremont riding), signs for Mulcair/NPD are ubiquitous - on balconies, front porches, in residential and commercial windows, and in front yards. In the past week I've visited neighbourhoods in a number of other ridings - Rosemont, Laurier, Mont-Royal, Jeanne-LeBer, Westmont - and can report that there are literally thousands and thousands of signs on privates yards, homes, apartments, and even cars. Certainly there has been a burst of orange, but plenty of Bloc signs in some ridings, some Conervative ones in parts of Mont-Royal, and a some Liberal ones scattered in Mont-Royal and Jeanne - Le Ber as well.
    As a native of Quebec and resident of Montreal, I can assure people outside the province that political signs on private property are certainly showing up in this election - and no one seems to be holding back out of some mythical fear of reprisal.
    Like other parts of the country, there is also an annoying tendency of all parties to plaster signs on every available public utility pole, vacant building, and other public space, but you don't need to look more than a few metres to find plenty of signs on private buildings and lots. Other than possibly reflecting the ability of a party to mobilise volunteers, I wouldn't look to the ‘sign wars’ to offer much insight into electoral outcomes.
    But you don't need to see signs to understand that there is a major NDP surge happening in Quebec -- listen in to conservations on the streets or in bars and restos, listen to French language radio, or bring the topic up with any group of people and you'll find that something very real is happening in the politics of the province, and people are engaged and fascinated by it. Whether it translates in sufficient votes to win many seats remains to be seen, but anyone one the ground here can tell you that something real is happening.
    11 04 24 CK
    I'm calling it for the Liberals, tentatively, however, this would only be because of Irwin Cotler. At age 68, I presume this will be his last kick at the can and the next time around, I suspect it will be open season, especially if ballot question in Mount-Royal continues to be ‘Who's the best leader--for Israel?’ To which, a lot of Jewish people, particularly the Orthodox Jews who tend to be small-c Conservatives to begin with, will give Harper a resounding thumbs up.
    However, one must ask if the recent NDP push (the NDP also are running a fairly prominent member of the Jewish community, Jeff Itcush, a teacher of a local Jewish High school) could split the vote with Cotler and help the more unlikeable Saulie Zajdel?
    11 04 24 Mount Royal Montrealer
    Surprised that this riding remains super-glued in the Liberal camp. Ape and Bear, no idea who you are or where you're from, but how can anyone rely on your comments when you make them for ridings across the country. Here on the ground, IN MOUNT ROYAL, if you ask the people who will decide the winner, they agree that this one is TCTC between the Liberals and the Conservatives. Predictions of an NDP win are likely party backers just trying to get their logo into the conversation.
    11 04 23 SHS
    The controversy in this riding is being engineered by the Harper camp but it's premature. As long as Irwin Cotler is running in Mont Royal, he will be re-elected. He is too well respected among the Jewish community, most of whom don't think very highly of Saulie Zajdel. Sure, the Tories will do better here than they have in the past, but they won't threaten the Liberals in what may still be the safest Liberal seat in the country.
    11 04 24
    Form a press person on the ground Antonia Zerbisias
    I can't believe how many NDP signs I am seeing in longtime Montreal Liberal strongholds such as Mount Royal, Westmount-Ville Marie and NDG-Lachine. This could get very interesting ...
    11 04 23 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Sign war? Liar! There are no signs on private lawns in Quebec. Does not happen as people fear reprisals. Everyone in Quebec knows this, apparently party supporters outside the province do not. The CPC tried to convince everyone there was a sign war in Montreal in '06, now it seems the NDP are pulling the same stunt.
    11 04 23 R.O.
    New quebec polls and a much stronger conservative candidate than 08 makes Mount Royal alot more interesting than before. if ndp are up in this riding its likely at expense of liberals not conservatives. new conservative candidate Saulie Zajdel has something like 20 plus years of experience on montreal city council so he is well known. although Irwin Cotler got over 50% of the vote in 08 which was good result for liberal in quebec but much lower than 06 and 04 liberal results in the riding. but conservatives still need to gain many votes over 08 numbers to win riding which gives liberals advantage , have to see if Harper visits riding or not during final week as to if tories think they have a chance or not .
    11 04 23
    On the ground the sign war has been won by the NDP..the NDP have their big rally today in Montreal
    11 04 23 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Popular NDP candidate? What are you talking about? Nobody would know who's the NDP candidate in this riding? Seriously, stop being silly and stop grasping at straws trying to convince everyone the cpc will win Mount Royal. Yes dynamics will have changed here but it will still be a Liberal win.
    11 04 22 expat
    In a recent National Post article, Zadjel was claiming that his path to victory is that he will receive 70% of Jewish votes, which he claims constitutes 45% of votes in the riding.
    If that is his electoral math, then he is going to be sorely disappointed, and the Conservatives are simply not going to pick up this seat (although they may narrow Cotler's margin a bit). Running against the former head of the Canadian Jewish Congress (Cotler), and a Canadian Jewish Congress board member & past President of Federation of Teachers of Jewish Schools (Itcush), simply means that he will not achieve that kind of overwhelming result.
    I attended 2 large family seders in this riding during the past week - one with my Ashkenazi family, one with my Moroccan Sephardic in-laws. The election was a major topic of conversation at both gatherings. Anyone who thinks that 70% of Jewish voters are going to back Zajdel doesn't understand the diversity and range of opinions in the Jewish community.
    While there certainly were some family members who thought they would vote for Zajdel - based on a perception that the Conservatives are more supportive of Israel and more committed to fighting anti-Semitism, they were definitely a minority at both gatherings.
    In the predominately Ashkenazi gathering (a more secular group), the bulk of attendees were hostile to the Conservatives based on social issues, and a great deal of discussion about what they considered to be Harper's abuse of the democratic process (contempt of Parliament, etc). Several attendees had been students of Jeff Itcush and were enthusiastic about his campaign, although a larger number were sticking with Cotler.
    More surprising to me was the anti-Zajdel sentiment at the predominately Moroccan Sephardic gathering. The fact that he is affiliated with the Lubavitch movement attracted a great deal of hostility - the far right Lubavitchers are known for attacking other Jews for not being ‘Jewish enough’, and this was viewed with resentment among quite a few in this family. They also expressed concern about what they perceived as Conservative cutbacks on family immigration and a belief that a Harper majority would re-ignite Quebec separatism.
    If these 2 families are representative of Jews in the riding, then Zajdel would probably get about 25-30% of the vote, Cotler would get about 40-50%, and Itcush would get about 20-25%. Even assuming that they are not representative, it is still illustrates the tremendous diversity within the Jewish community (‘ask two Jews about an issue, and you'll have three opinions’)
    The latest polls indicate that the Conservatives are below 10% on the island of Montreal - there is simply no way that Zajdel manages to get enough of the gentile vote (55-60% of the riding) to make up for his certain failure to get 70% of the Jewish vote.
    Cotler's margin will come down - largely because Itcush will rack a respectable total for the NDP, perhaps even challenging Zajdel for second place if there is enough spill-over from the Quebec NDP surge. But Mont-Royal will in all likelihood continue to send a Liberal to Ottawa.
    11 04 22 binriso
    Meh it would be the Conservatives that would likely take this one from the Liberals but they are down in Quebec and there is no way the party is winning this riding unless they are at least 10 points higher than last time and in a split-vote situation. This will likely be a little closer than last time though I expect that both the Liberals and Conservatives will lose support, just that the Liberals will lose a little more.
    11 04 21 rytech
    NDP surge in Quebec coupled with popular NDP candidate; increasing Jewish support for Conservatives as well as six-time city counselor; mentioned in both the G&M and National Post as a riding to watch.
    I'll go out on a limb here and say the Tories win in a squeaker. Definitely TCTC though.
    11 04 20 Stevo
    The Liberals will win as usual, but the results could be interesting. I think everyone will be shocked on election day when the Liberals receive their lowest percentage of votes here in a generation or two.
    11 04 18
    Since 2008, more of the Jewish community has shifted to the Conservatives based on initiatives of the government vis a vis Israel and anti-semitism.
    As well, the NDP candidate is well known and well liked and will also take some votes from the Liberals.
    The Liberals seem to be poorly organized in this riding and may not be able to get out the remaining Liberal vote on May 2nd.
    Because of these three factors, the Conservatives could win this riding.
    11 04 17 Marco Ricci
    The question is just how 'close' this riding really is. In every election there are races that are considered close by the media and in the election gossip, but which really aren't. In 2008, Westmount was supposed to be a close race between the Liberals and the NDP, and Liberal Marc Garneau ended up winning by a 2:1 margin It appears that the Conservatives are way behind in Lac St. Louis according to the La Presse poll, even though that was supposed to be close between the Liberals and the Conservatives. The same could turn out to be true here in Mount Royal. There is a lot of buzz and publicity around the Conservative candidate, and it shows the Conservatives are doing a better job of getting their candidate out there than the Liberals, but will it translate into an actual Conservative win? The Cons haven't won here since 1940 and didn't even win here during the 2 Mulroney Quebec landslides in '84 and '88. The Liberals have been asleep at the switch for the last few years, and have allowed the Conservatives to make inroads into the Jewish vote, but although there is a large Jewish population, the majority of voters here aren't Jewish. I think it's unlikely the Conservatives will break through here yet.
    11 04 17 MF
    Even with more serious challenges from the Conservatives and the NDP, I'm certain Irwin Cotler will have no problem hanging onto this seat. I kind of see it as akin to St. Paul's 2006, when Carolyn Bennett faced two ‘star candidates.’ First of all, this is Irwin Cotler we're talking about, who has enormous support in the Montreal Jewish community. Yes, some Jewish voters went Tory last time because of Harper's Israel stance, but the Jewish community remains mostly Liberal. I don't see why Israel is supposed to be a bigger issue time than it is in 2008 - those who wanted to defect from the Liberals over the issue I think have done so already. Ignatieff (not to mention Cotler) certainly passes the ‘pro-Israel enough’ threshold and I don't see how much more the Tories can gain by attacking the Liberals for being ‘anti-Israel’ (and it may even backfire). Jews are 35% of the riding's population and most of them cast their votes based on a variety of issues. Second, there's no evidence of a Tory swing among Montreal anglos - for instance, ‘star candidate’ Larry Smith is 20 points behind in Lac St. Louis. And if the Liberals lose in Mount Royal, they're done.
    11 04 17 JC
    Forget it, any Conservative prediction here is a joke, this is a Liberal Fortress. This is a Liberal Party riding until I see them actually manage to defeat the Liberals in this seat. Also Chantal Hebert has always been wrong about Quebec and I put no stock in what she says.
    11 04 17 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Ya know everyone talking about the Jewish vote and how it'll turn Mount Royal blue are completly ignoring the fact that this riding in not only Cote St Luc and Hampsted but also TMR (not Jewish) and Cote des Neiges (multi cultural and working class). These other parts of the riding have no reason to switch Conservative than say Outremont or NDG. Having said that, if ALL of the Jewish voters in CSL and Hampsted switched CPC (which they will not) then it would be a very close race. However even a large shift in the Jewish vote won't overcome the solid Liberal support elsewhere in the riding. This will be closer than it has been since forever but this prize shall remain elusive for the least this election.
    11 04 16 Mount Royal Montrealer
    Evidence on the ground has made me reconsider my prediction for this riding. It seems everyone and their Jewish grandmother is talking about Saulie Zajdel and no one seems to be talking about Irwin Cotler. It is significant when Mount Royal seniors, who have voted red without a second thought since arriving in Canada are all of a sudden passionately raving about the guy in blue.
    Residents here want to be part of the government, agree with the Conservatives' business tax cuts and reward Harper for his staunch support of Israel.
    The part of the riding that does not boast a heavy Jewish presence is Saulie Zajdel's old constituency when he was a popular city councillor.
    ‘Daniel’ is absolutely right when he notes that the NDP candidate, Jeff Itcush, will steal otherwise Liberal votes.
    As well, voter turnout in this riding has been declining for a few elections now as Liberal apathy continues to set in.
    For all of these reasons, assuming the current climate holds, the old ‘safest Liberal seat in Canada’ will be taken by Saulie Zajdel and the Conservatives on May 2nd.
    11 04 16 Ghosts of Elections Past
    The Toronto Star, which is not a bastion of good news for the Conservative Party has noticed that the Liberals are in trouble in this riding.
    The Quote from the Toronto Star.
    ‘At mid-campaign, the federalist Outaouais region is a four-way battleground and the Liberals will have to fight hard for second place across much of the equally federalist Eastern Townships. In Montreal, former prime minister Pierre Trudeau’s Mount Royal seat is at play, with the Conservatives hoping that their pro-Israel foreign policy will play well with the riding’s strong Jewish community.’
    That is incredible, however given that bastion of Liberal support in Mount Royal and the fact that Irwin Cotler has been returned many times, I would still put this as a long shot, and the fact that I can't imagine the Conservatives to have a good ground game. At best leaning Liberal, at worst to close to call.
    11 04 15 rsg
    In fortress Monreal, no chance for Conservatives to get elected here where the big red machine is still rock solid.
    11 04 14 LS
    This week Mount Royal has begun to look ripe for Tory picking. The buzz is definitely favouring Saulie. Over in Westmount-Ville Marie Drabkin is also giving Garneau a serious run for his money.
    11 04 13 Daniel
    This is the first time I have ever seen a Conservative prediction for this constituency! Taking everything into consideration, I think this riding is now TCTC. Cotler is down and Zajdel is up. That alone however won't be decisive. Jeff Itcush is a very popular NDP candidate who taught in one of the local schools and although this constitutency is far from NDP-inclined, if he takes off enough left-of-centre votes from Cotler, who knows? Anything can happen. I reserve judgment for now.
    11 04 13 FP
    Surprisingly, I would say that this one will be very, very close win by Tories. Liberal is no longer the Jewish natural party. With his strong support to Israel, Stephen Harper won many votes in this riding. Moreover, the liberals position to condemn ‘war crimes’ committed by Israel in Lebanon may hurt Cottler.
    Voices, are more and more often heard among the Jewish community to change to conservatives. Their candidate here is known. If we read the suburban or even the gazette, the trend seems to confirm. Even Barbara Kay wished for anglos to vote blue.
    Notice the conservative doubletalk also: Here for Canada in west Island ridings. Les régions au pouvoirs in all other ridings ...
    11 04 10 Mount Royal Montrealer
    A Liberal prediction makes sense here given conventional wisdom and past results but the word on the street suggests that popular former city councillor and Conservative candidate Saulie Zajdel might pull off an upset in 2011. One thing is for sure: the label ‘safest Liberal riding in Canada’ no longer applies in Mount Royal.
    11 03 30 Paul Tremblay
    Jewish voters are slowly but surely abandoning the Liberal Party in favour of the Conservatives, the Conservative stand on Israel has something to do with this but it is far from being the only factor. The Conservatives will have a real chance to win Mount Royal... in five or (more probably) ten years.
    Cotler will certainly hold his seat this year, but with a reduced majority, something like 6,000 votes instead of the 10,000 vote margin he had in 2008.
    11 03 29 Marco Ricci
    Liberal for now, although this riding is getting mentioned a lot more in this election than usual. The Conservatives seem to be really targeting it for the first time, and even say they can win it. Whether this is true or whether it is just good psychological warfare remains to be seen. But the fact that even strongholds like this one are under siege may be a sign to the Liberals that they can't take Montreal for granted in this election. Former Montreal city councillor Saulie Zajdel is running for the Conservatives, and is hoping that strong Conservative support for Israel helps him.
    11 03 28 M.Lunn
    One of the safest Liberal ridings in the country and despite Tory musings of pulling off an upset, there is no way they will win this. The Jewish community is only around 35% and it is only amongst the Orthodox Jews they do well amongst, most of the others in the Jewish community still vote Liberal. Policies towards Israel is not the only issue the Jewish community cares about as some seem to think, other issues matter too. After all the Republicans are more pro-Israel than the Democrats in the US, yet the Democrats consistently get over 75% of the Jewish vote.
    11 03 28 Tony Ducey
    Yeah, this seat stays Liberal. Probably would be the last riding in Canada to stay Liberal.
    11 03 11 Globe and Mail
    Interesting insights:
    Why Tories think they can take Mount Royal
    10 08 28 Daniel
    This still remains the safest liberal seat in the country and while it is shameful that an MP like Cotler who has done absolutely nothing for his constituents can still claim victory here, it is nevertheless so. Tory support in this constituency is growing and a popular pro-Israel NDP candidate (I didn't know such a thing exists) will split things around but Cotler will still come out on top with a slightly reduced majority.
    09 10 10 Gone Fishing
    Liberals aren't losing this one in any soon to be held election. They are not likely to lose it if the election is delayed but their support is dropping here. There was a time when the only voice the people of Quebec could choose was between the separatist and the liberals.
    That's just not the case anymore. Again, like other Quebec ridings Conservative support is growing and Liberal support is falling. From 2000 to 2008 the margin of the liberal winner has dropped by 19,000 votes. NINETEEN THOUSAND VOTES changing in PEI would have meant a Conservative sweep of that province in 2008!
    If Cotler loses ANOTHER 5000 votes this election it's a pretty close race. However 5000 is a lot to lose so for now I say this one is comfortably (not untouchably) Liberal.
    09 09 14 Brian A
    We all know how this is going to go, so it's not a matter of who will win; rather, by how much. And, despite the stereotype, it isn't just the Jews in this riding that keep Mount Royal painted red.
    I mean, this riding elected a Liberal MP for 21 straight elections; the last time it went blue, Adolf Hitler was the Chancellor of Germany. Pointe finale!
    09 09 06 A.S.
    Forget the GTA; even in Montreal, St Laurent and St Leonard beat Mount-Royal for Liberal share in '08. And while I wouldn't make too much of that ten-point-at-a-time percentage-plummet issue, the fact that Mount-Royal went from being the strongest Liberal riding in the Montreal area to being, in 2008, the strongest *Tory* riding in the Montreal area is more than a little weird to digest. And if you want a *real* nail-biting stat (and in all likelihood, the byproduct of a general election scheduled for a Jewish holiday), the advance polls gave Cotler 48.7% to the Tories' 42.9%!!! All in all, this would indicate that had pre/early-election polling figures for Quebec and Montreal carried through on e-day, Mount-Royal might, contrary to the ‘safest in the country’ mantra, *not* have been one of the handful of surviving Grit seats in the province. But I agree that it was more bottoming-out than harbinger--especially considering the thus-far bolstered Quebec Liberal numbers under Iggy. Just take what I've said as a note of sobriety.
    09 09 01 MF
    There are now some GTA ridings that compete with Mount Royal for ‘safest Liberal riding’ status but whatever...Irwin Cotler still won with 56 percent of the vote, and his Tory opponent well behind with 27%, in spite of Dion's leadership and a minority of the Jewish community swinging towards the Tories over the Israel issue. With the Tories way down in Quebec, the Liberals way up and with Israel less likely to be a wedge issue under Ignatieff, I expect Cotler to return to the 65-70% range.
    09 08 29 Stevo
    Oh this is always a fun one to comment on for us political junkies. Yes yes - safest Liberal seat in Canada, notwithstanding the good point from commenter ‘Liberally Doubting’ re: Cotler's declining margins. The only way the Liberal Party loses here is if it ceases to exist - and even then, the people of Mount Royal would panic and write-in, and vote for, ‘Candidate X - Liberal Party of Canada’ on the ballot.
    Pas de concours ici - la circonscription la plus secure pour le Parti Liberal au Canada. Je pense que meme s'il n'y aurait pas un candidat Liberal, les gens de Mount Royal auraient peur et seraient tellement troubles a cause de ca qu'ils ecriraient ‘Candidat X - Parti Liberal’ sur le papier en tous cas!
    09 08 26 Smok Wawelski
    Why am I even commenting on this one? Only because Liberally doubting's suggestion that Mont-Royal could turn into another Outremont. Without the albatross of Dion around his neck, the Grits will be back into the 60-70% range.
    Move on... nothing to see here.
    09 08 25 MJA
    While I look forward to many comments about red mailboxes and blushing pigs, the bottom line is that the Liberals could turn out to be a front for an international ring of kitten-molestors and Mount Royal would still give Irwin Cotler at least a 40% majority.
    09 08 24 Jon on {Politics
    The Liberal MP, Irwin Cotler will easily win re-election even though he spends 3/4 of his time outside of Canada.
    He is barely present in his riding or Ottawa and is the top spender in the Commons on his cell phone and international travel.
    He loves travelling but Mt. Royal would elect Snoopy if he were running as a Liberal.
    09 08 24 David
    Libéral, ya rien d'autre à dire! Une borne fontaine pourrait y être élue pourvu qu'elle soit rouge.
    09 08 24 Observer
    This is Liberal Party. Any discussion is need for this riding.
    09 08 24 Liberally Doubting
    Before the usual chorus praising the rich Liberal history of Mont Royal (inevitably someone will mention this was once Trudeau’s seat) and the star quality of Irwin Cotler (inevitably someone will mention he won his first election with 92%), one should take note of the alarming trend of Liberal fortune under Irwin Cotler.
    From his 92% by-election high in 1999, Cotler managed to lose about ten percents in EVERY ELECTION since. 1999 – 92%, 2000 – 81%, 2004 – 75%, 2006 – 66%, 2008 – 56%.
    Granted, even if Cotler lose another 10%, he would still win. But perhaps it’s time for the Liberals to consider putting a real fighter in this riding before this once safest Liberal riding in the country turns into yet another Outremont.
    11 04 28 Daniel
    I think in the end of the day Cotler will win albeit with a much reduced majority. Recent changes in polling might lead some soft Tory supporters to switch to Liberal in the hopes that Ignatieff will remain leader of the opposition and to block the prospect of an NDP-led minority government. If however Layton does come in second and the Liberals are pressured to support him as PM, I guarantee that if Cotler follows suit, it will be the last time this constituency votes Grit.
    11 04 28
    Cotler seems to have thrown in the towel in this riding.
    Having never had to campaign before, he does not seem to have much of a team.
    Apart from candidate debates, he is nowhere to be seen.

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