Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011


La prévision a changé
2009-08-25 16:11:00

Profil de circonscription


Conway, Matthew

Gal, Jessica

Hoffman, Rachel

Jennings, Marlene

Ladouceur-Despins, Gabrielle

Lovett, David Andrew

Morin, Isabelle

L'hon. Marlene Jennings

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • lac-saint-louis (40/204 Polls)
  • notre-dame-de-grace-lachine (169/221 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 04 27 expat
    My gut tells me that Jennings will manage to eke out a victory here, but it won't be a large margin.
    It is a mistake to think of this as an Anglophone riding -- according to the last census, it was actually 36% Francophone, 34% Anglophone, with the remainder speakers of non-official languages. But since most immigrants in Montreal have a tendency to vote Liberal (as do the Anglophones), it has made for a historically safe Liberal seat.
    The NDP probably missed a huge opportunity here when they nominated an extremely low-profile unknown candidate - a young French language teacher who is still completing her Bachelor's degree. Had they found a higher profile candidate with strong community roots and the ability to wage a vigourous campaign, I suspect they would be headed for victory (and they still might). But Jennings should be able to pull out the narrowest of victories.
    11 04 27 AR
    Some polls are now showing the Liberals in 4th place in the province. If the NDP really are at 40% in Quebec, they should also pick up this seat. One more thing - comparing Saskatchewan to Quebec is like comparing apples to oranges, they may both be provinces but voting dynamics are vastly different. In SK, the NDP have to compete with a Conservative machine where as in QB, you have 4 parties that are competitive.
    11 04 26 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    There is absolutly a buzz in Montreal about the NDP and Jack Layton. Will confess that we wouldn`t be too surprised if the NDP did take NDG-Lachine but we still say Liberals keep it (for all the aformentioned reasons). We expect the closest race in a century (yes we said century) with the NDP coming second. Even Mamma Bear and Brother Bear, both long time Liberal supporters are voting NDP. Things are happening and it`s exciting!
    11 04 25 Marco Ricci
    ‘When you have a party polling at 25%, those votes need to come from somewhere.’
    Teddy Boragina, the NDP has received 25% of the vote in Saskatchewan in the last 3 federal elections and not won a single seat. 25% of the vote in a province will not necessarily translate into seats if it is spread thinly. It depends on the concentration of vote. Therefore, the NDP could end up finishing below 1st place in almost all of Quebec's 75 seats. We just don't know what's going to happen at this point.
    11 04 24 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    We're not in disagreement on IF the NDP will make a break through in Quebec this election. We disagree on the WHERE. Anglophone Quebec voters are far more cautious in how they vote. It's the Francophone voyters that will go massively ADQ or PC or NDP or try just about anything new. This why we don't think the NDP will take this riding (or Westmount). One note of signs, coming back from church today we saw one sign for the NDP candidate on a balcony. Considering there is one, sole sign on a private lawn for any party, suppose that is a major victory in a sign war. Or the candidate just lives there...
    11 04 24 Neal Ford
    Teddy, as much as i want to see Marlene Jennings bite the political dust, it's not going to happen. NDP may have some generic numbers, but lacks the GOTV. reason #1 why Mulcair has been able to hold Outremont is that the old bloc machine defected to the NDP. Trouble is, in NDG Lachine, the Bloc never had a machine, so that will not duplicate itself there. Also the Lachine, Montreal West , and dorval sements of the riding are not exactly friendly to the NDP. Another reason why the ADQ was able to get 41 seats in 2007 was not only because they had the math, but more because PQ supporters stayed home because of Andre Boisclair. Libs won;t stay home. Another thing you need to know about Quebec, is that there are two machines: The PLQ and the PQ. in some ridings the ADQ has picked up on some of the old red machine. Provincial Liberal associations tend to get behind tghe federalist candidates that best serve their interests, which is almot always a Lib or a Tory depending on where you are. This is why the Libs have a shot at Haute gaspesie-Bonaventure le mitis. as the provincial libs who hold most of the seat provincially will get behind colleague Nancy Charest. they will NOT do likewise for the NDP there, but will hold their noses and get out for Jennings.
    11 04 23 Teddy Boragina
    The NDP has for some time had the math to win here. I saw one poll putting them at 40% in Montreal, with the Bloc, not the Liberals, in second.
    Remember when the ADQ won 41 seats? People thought 20, maybe 25, but 41? Dozens of those victories were in ridings that nobody thought the ADQ could ever - EVER, win. And they did. Why? They had the math. When you have a party polling at 25%, those votes need to come from somewhere. They are not going to magically stack up in second place in all 75 ridings. The NDP has the math to win here, and they will win here.
    11 04 23 SHS
    One of the Liberal's stronghold seats. Marlene Jennings is well known and respected, and will easily be re-elected.
    11 04 23 rsg
    I agree with Bear&Ape , public places where signs appear does NOT translate into support. i mean, yes, there's no denying, Jack layton and the NDP are enjoying unprecedented polling numbers, but will that actually translate into seats, in NDG, the Liberals are quite entrenched here and i don't see the NDP, with the exception of Outrement picking up any other Montreal seats, Gatineau is certainly a possibility.
    11 04 24
    From a press person on the ground.
    I can't believe how many NDP signs I am seeing in longtime Montreal Liberal strongholds such as Mount Royal, Westmount-Ville Marie and NDG-Lachine. This could get very interesting ...
    11 04 23 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Sign war? Liar! There are no signs on private lawns in Quebec. Never, ever! So the NDP have put up signs in public areas. Big deal. Just as many BQ signs here as there are NDP, CPC or Liberal. Public signs means absolutly nothing and to imply that there is a sign war on private lawns is just trying to mislead and give the illusion that the NDP are going to sweep this riding.
    11 04 23
    On the ground the nDP have won the sign war inside NDG...and the Montreal rally is today
    11 04 20 Teddy Boragina
    I actually posted about this on my website. Using a ratio method, this was the seat that would have fallen in this order in this election... 2006: 5th, 2004: (more than 8th) 2000: 4th, 1997: 5th, 1993: 3rd. The NDP does have historic strength here compared to the rest of the province.
    11 04 19 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Sorry Nick/Teddy (which do you perfer these days?) no dice on the NDP getting close. Here's why: first, much of this riding is West Island and unless you're willing to consider Lac St Louis ripe for NDP picking, then that part of NDG-Lachine isn't in play. So there goes a large chunk of the electorate. Second, NDG, which IS modern NDP-friendly (Jack Layton, latte sipping, bike-riding, enviro-friendly, etc, etc), is not entirely in this riding. The more NDP-friendly part (the eastern part) is in Westmount-Ville Marie. The western part of NDG is more old-immigrant (those who came to Canada in the 50's and 60's), more West Island-y and more Liberal. That's not to say in time this could swing to the NDP; Dr Bear's mom, who can best be described as a blue Liberal and who used to swing Liberal/PC is voting NDP for the first time ever! If she can vote for Layton (and that is who she is voting for) then others will succumb to his charm too. His achilles heel though, if he continues to announce his support of Quebec's langage policy that WILL kill any chances in NDG and elsewhere in Western Montreal.
    11 04 19 Teddy Boragina
    Jennings is strong? Yes. But remember, she was there last time, and her strength has already turned into votes, 2008 votes. The NDP is polling very very well. They dont quite yet have the numbers to win here, but a few more points, and this seat could fall.
    11 04 17 MF
    Marlene Jennings always win by very large margins and will certainly be re-elected. This is however the kind of riding that is quite NDP-compatible in terms of demographics. I expect the NDP to come in second place. If the NDP had a star candidate they could have given Jennings a serious challenge.
    11 04 14 Neal
    Sadly, and VERY sadly, I have to say as a former resident of the Dorval-Lachine section of this riding, Marlene jennings is going to win and win easily. I have always resented the way she was nominated (handpicked by Chretien as opposed to winning an open nomination) and view her as a symptom of what is wrong with the whole sustem.
    A final comment: Dorval and Lachine should never have neen lumped in with NDG. They really are two different worlds, and the NDG side gets its way by virtue of numbers.
    11 03 29 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
    My home riding and the one where most of my family still lives. A few years ago my niece (who was 6 at the time) found the riding newsletter in the mail and got all excited. ‘We got a letter from Hillary Obama!’ she told my brother. When he asked her to explain she said, ‘The black lady who is always on TV and wants to be prime minister. She sent us a letter!’. Marlene Jennings has been quite visible in the media over the last few years (so much that even a child recognized her...albeit a little confused with the American presidential race) and that is securing her status in a solidly liberal riding, while probably positioning herself to become a cabinet minister or (why not?) prime minister in a future liberal government. No doubt she will win this riding and likely with over 50% of the vote.
    11 03 28 M.Lunn
    While not the strongest Liberal riding on the West Island, they should get at least 50% and the remaining vote being scattered pretty evenly amongst the other three parties.
    11 03 28 Tony Ducey
    Not surprised at the lack of comments here, this riding stays Liberal.
    09 08 24 David
    Libéral, ya rien d'autre à dire! Une borne fontaine pourrait y être élue pourvu qu'elle soit rouge.

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