Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011


La prévision a changé
2011-04-18 16:14:00

Profil de circonscription


Boyden, Johan

Cauchon, Martin

Daoust, Élise

Gaudet, Tommy

Husny, Rodolphe

Mulcair, Thomas

Pilon, Francois

Thomas Mulcair

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • outremont (153/178 Polls)
  • papineau-saint-denis (8/189 Polls)
  • westmount-ville-marie (21/187 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 04 30 St bagel
    Don t count out the Liberals in this riding. The Jewish vote will not vote for the NDP and the senior vote is also huge in this area.
    11 04 26 will87
    With the NDP polling at the level that they apparently are, I predict that Mulcair will hold this seat pretty safely.
    11 04 24 WAC
    Only the delusional think that Cauchon has shot. Easy hold for the NDP and Mulclair now.
    11 04 24 expat
    This is my riding, so figure I should weigh in here to add to the chorus of voices predicting an NDP win. Mulcair has solidified his support in the riding, and even without the Quebec surge for the NDP as a whole, he would probably be favoured to win here.
    But his high profile (and potential status as next national party leader), he well-oiled political machine (from the by-election and last general), and careful attention he has paid to local concerns - coupled with the current political environment in Quebec - mean that it won't even be close. On the ground, the Cauchon campaign seems anemic and dispirited (the couple next door are usually avid Liberal volunteers - they told me that they have only done a couple of hours of calling Liberal party lists this time in the riding and aren't planning to spend much time working the final week - they just don't think Cauchon can win, so instead they are doing work for Justin Trudeau instead...).
    The NDP, on the other hand, seem charged up and excited - the campaign is highly visible throughout the riding, and a friend volunteering on the campaign said they've been overwhelmed with the number of volunteers coming out to work for the campaign this time.
    Unless Jack makes some huge Quebec faux-pas in the final week, Outremont is going to be a clear NDP win.
    11 04 23 SHS
    I'm leaning towards Cauchon here. Yes, NDP are inflating their own numbers to claim a ‘tidal wave’ in Quebec, but it's mostly hype. Mulcair won this by a hair's breath last time, and I think it will swing back to the Liberals.
    11 04 23 Guy Concordia
    I revise my earlier prediction. Given the 20% lead in a local poll last week and the NDP's first-place position in current polls, I don't think Cauchon will be able to win this back.
    11 04 19 M. Lunn
    Based on the NDP's numbers in Quebec, I think it is pretty clear they have this one in the bag. Even though I wouldn't surprised if they get around 20% as opposed to 25% in Quebec as a whole, either way that would be enough to hold this. The Liberals need to be at least 5 points if not 10 points ahead of the NDP in Quebec to realistically retake this one.
    11 04 18 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    With NDP numbers as they are, Mulcaire will keep this riding. Watch BQ voters strategically voting NDP to block a Liberal win. There is some lingering bitterness to the adscam...not much but it might not take much here.
    11 04 18 Matt
    Thomas Mulcair is the new generation of NDP. Liberals in Quebec are following his lead by leaving their old party to join the NDP, and recent polling trends are showing this to be the case. Expect a wider vote spread here and perhaps a colleague or two joining the NDP caucus from Quebec. Martin Cauchon is yesterday's man.
    11 04 18 Oh come on!
    Thomas Mulcair is a big reason why the party is growing and it is not credible to think the only NDP MP in Quebec will lose his seat amid such popularity. Just because Liberals used to do well here isn't reason to think they will again. Tories used to win in downtown Toronto. Does that mean they always will? Time to change this call to NDP.
    11 04 18 JFBreton
    Deux nouveaux sondages ce matin concernant les intentions de vote au Québec. Dans les deux cas, forte progression du NPD et stagnation du vote libéral. Mulcair est bien en selle dans Outremont. Victoire du NPD.
    11 04 18 Pierre
    Ce comté n'est plus depuis longtemps dans la catégorie '' too close to call '' 2 sondages récents confirment une montée du NPD qui devance les Libéraux au Québec. Outremont est maintenant un comté sur pour le NPD.
    11 04 18
    The NDP are surging in Que drawing soft nationalist support..this seat is now a safe NDP seat
    11 04 18 SouthpawPundit
    NDP is at 26% in Quebec, compared to 19% for Liberals as per latest Angus Reid poll (which also has the two parties tied at 25 Canada-wide). Leger had NDP at 24 and Liberals at 20.
    The NDP will not lose this seat while doubling its share of the popular vote in Quebec.
    11 04 17 MF
    The NDP is on the upswing in Quebec, and a CROP poll shows Mulcair ahead of Cauchon by nearly a 2-1 margin. The riding that was tailor-made for an NDP breakthrough in Quebec will be staying that way - Mulcair is personally very popular, can cross the federalist/separatist divide and is future leadership material. Stevo is right - Cauchon is yesterday's news!
    11 04 17 Oliver May
    I mean, seriously, Sébastien Dhavernas a weaker candidate than Cauchon!

    Give me a break, even if his daughter didn't campaign for him, he was/is, himself, personally liked and respected in the arts community.
    A safe win for Mulcair.
    11 04 16 Marco Ricci
    Journalist Chantal Hebert says this riding is a probable NDP win:
    ‘While Cauchon’s bid for a return to Parliament is faltering in Outremont, the opposite is happening in Trudeau’s Papineau riding. Even as they are upgrading Outremont’s status from a possible to a probable NDP win on May 2, most observers are maintaining Papineau in the Liberal column.’
    11 04 16 binriso
    Please note that the NDP are polling ahead of the Liberals in Quebec, or at least within the margin of error if they are behind. Thats way closer than 11.5% behind the Liberals in Quebec last time. Not to mention the Greens are down seemingly everywhere except the West and the Bloc vote may even go down further as more soft nationalists/social democrats vote for Mulcair.
    11 04 15 rsg
    Maybe i have been away from Quebec too long to judge the dynamics, good point poll reader, all i said was that this is Martin Cauchon we are talking about, not a token candidate exactly. It will be a battle yes, no doubt, many here are predicting Mulcair will hold on, but if there is a hint Harper could possibly get a majority the recent bump the NDP have been getting in the polls will eventually trend downward, that's a prediction i will make, the NDP really have never been a factor in Quebec, and likely never will be. This i still will predict for Cauchon.
    11 04 15 JaneyCanuck
    absolutely NO way Thomas M will loose this riding. He is responsible, along with Jack Layton for the NDP surge in the polls - which the networks seem to miss - but talk to people in Quebec, many of whom always voted Liberal but are uncomfortable for a variety of reasons with Iggy!
    11 04 14 Stevo
    Put a fork in it, this one's done. Martin Cauchon, whatever his credentials, is yesterday's news. Mulcair has always been popular and after Layton's very strong performance in the French language, he can't lose. Easy hold for the NDP.
    Pas de concours. Malgré les qualifications de M. Cauchon, M. Mulcair est trop populaire ici à perdre. Et apres la tres forte performance de M. Layton pendant le debat francais, il est certainment temps de changer la prédiction pour l'NPD.
    11 04 14 Poll Reader
    rsg - I suggest you have a closer look at the polls in Quebec. Virtually every one has the NDP steadily trending up; not exactly an indication of an imminent collapse.
    11 04 14 Neal
    This one is really too close to call, but I lean toward a Liberal victory here, albeit a narrow one. Casting aside broader trends provincewide, what we have here is a battle between two dauphins of their respective parties. Both parties leaders are likely fighting their last campaigns, so victory is crucial to the leadership aspirations of both candidates.
    If It appeard a Tory majority is coming (I believe it is) Liberals are going to vote looking ahead to the next election. They will vote massively for Cauchon, because they know him, and because they want a future Prime Minister as their MP. Many Bloquistes will get behind Mulcair, but if Lib voters turn out, Cauchon wins. But it will be close.
    If the liberaln viote starts to really collapse in Quebec, then Mulcair might eke out a win, since people may see that the NDP might, under his leaderrshgip eventually eclipse the Libs in opposiution, and then perhaps contend.
    For now, TCTC, but slight edge to Cauchon.
    11 04 14 Art
    It's really to your discredit that you still say this is too close to call. A poll in the riding shows the NDP up by 20. Every poll in the province shows the NDP up by around 8-10% from the last election. Do you really think the NDP is going to increase it's vote by that much and not hang on to its one, high profile MP?
    11 04 13 Stéphane Gaudet
    Même si la communauté juive délaissait Mulcair pour se ranger en bloc derrière Cauchon, je ne crois pas que ce serait suffisant. Mulcair est désormais bien implanté dans le comté, et les bloquistes votent pour lui pour faire barrage aux libéraux. Même des organisateurs libéraux reconnaissent que ce sera difficile pour Cauchon de ramener Outremont sous la bannière libérale. Réélection de Mulcair.
    11 04 11 rsg
    Although Mulcair is the incumbent, i don't see him hanging on here, if the Liberals were running a lesser candidate than maybe he retains the seat. The NDP vote is collapsing in Ontario and will follow in Quebec. Cauchon has represented Outremont in the past and this is a Liberal riding. It won't be a cake walk like it was in the past but i believe Cauchon wins by about a thousand votes. That crop poll i believe may be a one off poll. The Liberal voters that stayed home last time, won't this time.
    11 04 10
    Crop poll shows a NDP lead of 20 points in Outremont. This is now a safe NDP seat
    11 04 10 Teddy Boragina
    The NDP has been able to build a base here with Mulcair. They will win this riding in this election. They are polling at CPC/LIB levels in the province. They will hold this riding for as long as Mulcair wants it.
    11 04 09 binriso
    While the NDP may be down elsewhere they are up in Quebec and BC and that means they should hold this seat as well as pick up another one or two in the province.
    11 04 09 DL
    Time to call this one for the NDP - CROP just did a poll for La Presse of 500 voters in Outremont and Mulcair leads Cauchon by almost a 2 to 1 margin (47% to 27%) and that's even with the BQ getting 15% which is higher than they got in the last election and the Tory candidate at just 7%.
    This riding poll seems to reflect the overall trend in Quebec of the NDP going up and the Liberals totally stagnant.
    11 04 09 Marco Ricci
    I don't know if there will be other NDP MP's elected from Quebec, but it does look like Mulcair will get re-elected here. Today's La Presse/CROP poll has him 20 points ahead of Cauchon: 47% for Mulcair and 27% for Cauchon.
    If these numbers hold, it means that Mulcair will do better than in 2008, and Cauchon will do worse than the Liberal who ran in 2008, which will be embarrassing. The 2008 results show that Mulcair was vulnerable that year, and that's probably when Cauchon should have run against him. By waiting this long to run, Cauchon made a mistake.
    11 04 09 MF
    The polls are showing quite consistently that the NDP is on the upswing in Quebec. The Libs did come reasonably close to taking Mulcair out last time with a low-profile candidate, and if Martin Cauchon were running then, they might have done so. But it seems like they've missed their chance. NDP hold.
    11 04 07 Social Democrat
    Latest poll by Angus Reid has the NDP at 24% in Quebec... up from 20% in the previous poll. Last election they received 12%. They're in second place behind the Bloc.
    Mulcair won't be the only NDP MP heading to Ottawa from Quebec after election day. This will be a historic election!
    11 04 06 Paul Tremblay
    Martin Cauchon is well-known, but being well-known is not the same thing as being popular. Cauchon won in 1993, 1997 and 2000 because he was the Liberal candidate and almost all federalist voters on the Island of Montreal voted Liberal in those years, he probably thinks that he won these elections because of himself but the fact is that he was not liked by voters (I know this for a fact as I lived in this riding in the late 1990s/early 2000s) and he only got elected thanks to the (then-)magic L-word that appeared under his name on the ballot.
    Things have changed a lot in ten years, the Liberal party remains relatively popular among federalists on the Island, but not to the extent they used to be.
    Mulcair won in 2008 thanks in large part to the separatist vote and he will have no trouble keeping those separatist votes thanks to the extreme weakness of the Bloc candidate this year.
    For very obvious reasons, federalist voters in Outremont who support the NDP have no reason to vote Liberal in order to block the Bloc here, and this will also help Mulcair.
    Mulcair is also personally popular and while this usually doesn't help that much in an urban riding, this one is different because of all the media attention, few voters in Outremont are unaware of which riding they live in and who are the main candidates.
    The NDP will keep their one and only seat in Quebec.
    11 04 06 Guy Concordia
    WIth Martin Cauchon as the Candidate, this riding goes back to the Liberals. At 48, he is a future leadership contender. This is the man who served as Attorney General when Canada decriminalized marijuana possession and who pushed cabinet to legalize same-sex marriage. The NDP may do well across the province as they eat away at the soft Bloc vote, but I don't think they will be able to hold Outremont.
    11 04 07 FP
    This one will stay NDP. Liberals of Outremont will get more seduced by NDP higher stance in polls. Cote des Neiges ethnics will continue to support NDP strongly. Moreover, separatists knows that their vote will be more useful to defeat the liberal, than get a MP. So they'll vote orange.
    Even Cauchon's high profile cannot take this one from the hands of Mulcair
    11 04 04 Marco Ricci
    Newest polls in Quebec show the Liberals improving and moving ahead of the NDP, so Cauchon may still be in the running here.
    11 04 04 pierre r.
    C'est certain que Mulcair remportera Outremont. Non seulement est son bureau de campagne rempli en tout temps, sa presence dans le comte est mille fois superieure a celle de ses adversaires. La presence d'une bloquiste faible aidera les efforts de l'NPD. Je prevoie une victoire marginale neo-democrate le 2 mai.
    11 04 03 Seth
    NDP polling numbers are higher in Quebec than they are in the Prairies, where they hold 4 seats. A lot of that support is coming from this riding. Mulcair hold.
    11 04 02 M.Lunn
    Two high profile candidates, former Chretien cabinet minister Martin Cauchon running for the Liberals and Thomas Mulclair for the NDP making this a very tight race. At this point definitely too close call and will likely be a tight race either way.
    11 04 01 Social Democrat
    Mulcair, probably the next federal NDP leader, will be re-elected. Liberal support in Quebec is actually lower than in 2008. One recent poll had the NDP the top federal pick behind the BLOC. I predict Mulcair will also be heading back to Ottawa with a couple NDP MP's from Quebec alongside.
    11 03 28 Tony Ducey
    When Mulcair was first elected in 2007, many thought it was the start of a NDP breakthrough in Quebec. We have all seen what has happened or not happened. Think this seat goes back to Liberal and Martin Cauchon.
    11 03 27 John
    I agree this one is too close to call at this stage in the game.
    The NDP may be polling stronger in Quebec right now. Mulclair is the incumbant, giving him the incumbancy advantage.
    At the same time, this riding has been traditionally Liberal, and I'm guessing the Liberals would really like to get this one back. That means they are likely targeting this riding and pouring more resources into it.
    So leave it as too close to call until closer to election day and we have a better idea of which way the winds are blowing.
    11 03 27 jeff316
    Outremont is interesting because, locally, there's a bit of a enthusiasm over the fact that this race transcends the usual binary Bloc-Lib situation. Martin Cauchon is well-known but the real barometer of this race is this: is Martin Cauchon a Gerard Kennedy-esque figure, locally and/or provincially? If so, he's in. If not, Mulcair holds.
    11 03 24 Marco Ricci
    David Young is an NDP supporter, so one has to read his prediction with caution, but he is right that most Quebec analysts say the NDP appears to be polling well going into this election in Quebec. The NDP appears to be higher in 2011 than in 2008, while the Liberals appear to be lower. If this remains the case throughout the election campaign, Cauchon may be in trouble. Mulcair has had a lot of media attention in the past few years, and Cauchon has not been as visible. However, the Liberals were able to give Mulcair a close run in 2008 with a weak candidate, so a stronger candidate such as Cauchon who has held the riding before, should not be ruled out yet. We will need to re-evaluate this riding at mid-campaign to see where the polls are.
    10 11 17 David Young
    Reports of Thomas Mulcair's demise are a bit premature, given the increasing levels of NDP support in and around Montreal lately.
    With levels of support in the mid-20's in the francophone and anglophone populations, and Jack Layton continually being the most popular federal party leader amongst non-B.Q. supporters, Outremont should be an easy NDP hold, even with Cauchon as Liberal candidate.
    10 01 15 Pierre
    Il va sans dire que Mulcair aura pas mal d'appuis de la part des bloquistes. Egalement, la candidature haute-gamme de M. Cauchon ansi qu'un autre represantant Conservateur 'non-name' devrais mettre ce comte dans la colonne Liberal la prochaine fois.
    Tant pis pour Thomas Mulcair et ses aspirations de leadership au federal.
    09 11 14 E.D.
    I completely disagree with David Y's assessment of Outremont. Comparing a Windsor match-up between Herb Gray and Brian Masse is apples and oranges. Herb Gray is well into his 70's now and would never stage a comeback.
    What the people of Outremont has a choice between two men that stand a good chance of becoming their respective party leaders in the future. Cauchon stands a strong chance of becoming a powerful cabinet minister (again) or even PM, while Mulclair would serve as the leader of the 4th place party in Ottawa. When voter's head to poll, they are going to choose the man that has the greater chance of influence for them.
    It will be close, but I see Cauchon pulling out a victory by at least 1,500 votes. The general campaigns will have very little do do with this race, it will come down to a battle of the titans- all politics is local in Outremont between these two men.
    09 10 31 David Y.
    It is amusing to read the submissions from those who think that this seat would automatically go back to one political party because a certain individual from that riding's history returns as a candidate.
    Is there anyone who believes that if Herb Gray had contested his Windsor riding again in 2004 that he would have beaten Brian Masse? I don't think so!
    Mulcair will hold this seat, though it will be a tight contest!
    09 10 21 JEB
    Dr Bear is partially right in his comment but he misses the fact that the Bloc's benefecial support came in the 2007 by-election (22,000 voters). In the 2008 general election (37,000 voters), Mulcair's majority shrunk in half, and that's against Liberal (Verdun resident)no-name Dhavernas. Cauchon has 2000 votes to pick up in order to get back his seat in Ottawa. With the whole riding association, his own personal support team and the media around this one, it should be a relatively easy Liberal pick-up. Oups, I forget to mention how Jack Layton is helping Mulcair by backing the Conservatives as well....
    09 10 04 Gone Fishing
    While NDP fortunes in Quebec are not great I think Mulcair is the kind of guy people will make an extra effort to come out and vote for.
    The Liberal problems in Quebec may well go away but than again this riding could be the sign that people really are taking their undying support for the Liberals and placing it elsewhere.
    The NDP will do everything possible to win here, it might be the home of their next leader as someone else noted here.
    The NDPs best shot at gains anywhere in the near future is to present itself in Quebec as an alternative to the Liberals and chip away slowly at Bloc support to win the odd riding like they did here in the by-election.
    09 10 02 Anon
    Last time around a candidate with zero backing from the federal party, who campaigned for only three weeks, cut Mulcair's margin from 21% to 7%. The Liberals are polling consistently higher in Quebec than during the 08 election, Cauchon is an incomparably stronger opponent than Dhavernas, and having failed to win a single other seat in Quebec for Layton, Mulcair will have far fewer resources. Cauchon will wipe the floor with him.
    09 09 26 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    WOAH! Hold on everyone! Before we all start predicting this going to the Liberals without much difficulty, remember that Mulcair was supported by BQ voters who'd rather an NDPer over a Liberal. They may be the king-makers once again. This will be a very interesting riding to watch.
    With regards to this fiasco being Iggy's and Coderre's downfall, don't bet the farm on it. It will be long forgotten whenever there is an election. That is, unless this doesn't become a new, and very public, display of Liberal infighting.
    09 09 26 Smok Wawelski
    How quickly things change! A few days ago, with Cauchon seemingly pushed out of the way by Quebec Bullyboy Denis Coderre, I had written the riding off, and called it for Mulcair.
    So, here we are and Cauchon has won the power struggle, and will run in Outremont. Now the shoe is on the other foot, and Mulcair is in trouble again. I believe that Cauchon will win Outremont, and quite easily. he'll have to work for it, but he'll win with a 5000 vote plurality.
    As for LeProhon in Jeanne Leber, hard to say. I think it'll be close since that had been a traditionally liberal riding until Frulla lost it in '06. St Cyr increased his plurality last time, so Le prohon did not land a plum, though it is not out of reach.
    the real losers in this are the Iggy/Coderre tandem. Coderre overplayed his hand, and Iggy showed egregious lack of judgment. Both could be casualties.
    Iggy should dismiss Coderre right away as his Quebec Lieutenant and start sucking up BIG TIME to cauchon, who, despite the assertions of several Toronto Liberal Kingmakers. will probably be the next Liberal leader, and NOT Dalton McGuinty.
    Unless Iggy ditches Coderre, and fast, his days are indeed numbered.
    09 09 26 Marco Ricci
    I think it would be good to wait until the nomination is actually decided before reaching conclusions as to who the nominee will be. As it turns out, some people jumped the gun this week in assuming what would happen, and now Michael Ignatieff has reversed his decision and will allow Martin Cauchon to run for the Liberal nomination here afterall. That changes things once again and that is why it is too soon to know who will prevail for sure.
    09 09 25 Nick J Boragina
    Even more fun over here. Cauchon is in, Cauchon is out. Now he's in it appears, and will be running against Mulcair. This is the Liberal's riding to lose, and this little mess up might help in that, but regardless, it remains just that - the Liberals riding to lose. At this rate, they are set to do just that.
    09 09 25 Isa06
    How things change in 24 hours...Cauchon will get his nomination against any challenger, increase visibility of the Party in the riding, and take it from Mulcair, when ever Jack figures out that losing his NDP seat in QC is actually better for his leadership than keeping it...
    09 09 26 brent Thorkelson
    Iggy has flipflopped, no forced nomination. Cauchon will run in Outremont, and whatshername high flying executive woman will probably settle for Jean-Le-ber. Both will be elected, I mean come on these were razor thin defeats in the last election, that was a perfect storm nadir for the Liberals in Montreal, they will certainly gain from that disaster and any perceptible gain puts both of these in the win column. Yes it all looks like a big mess of intraliberal backstabbing right now but thanks to the NDP the election will be far enough away that this will all be forgotten. Mulclair is a cool guy and it will be a pity to see him go, but like many NDP mps he is elected by a protest vote, and that can only hold together so long. The Irony is if the election were underway this would be a live grenade down the pants type event that would get Mulclair elected but Jack hat to go and cost his side kick his job. oh well...
    09 09 25 Daniel
    One has to wonder about the advice that Mr. Ignatieff is taking. This is a test of Coderre's power in the party. If his hand-picked candidate loses, it will be on his head and Ignatieff will suffer for having listened to him. Cauchon was the smart choice and had a much better chance of reclaiming this former liberal bastion in the heart of Montreal from the NDP, but since the current leadership decided to bring in a nobody, at the expense of the choice of the constituency members, I am confident that Mulcair will retain this seat. Ignatieff is a complete fool for listening to Coderre and should know better given Coderre's obvious interest in the party leadership.
    09 09 23 Philip Yu
    For all that the Coderre/Cauchon feud's worth, the fate of this seat is pretty much in the hands of the Outremont electorate now. I do know that both the Liberal and NDP campaigns will have plenty of resources devoted to the riding, but whether Mulcair will get the numbers he wants without fail or Liberal supporters will suspend their disbelief and hold firm is beyond me.
    Nevertheless, it's definitely a gamble on the parts of Michael Ignatieff and Denis Coderre...they'll make out like bandits if the Liberals manage to retake the seat, but on the other hand, losing again to Mulcair could prove fatal.
    09 09 22 Paul Tremblay
    Well the identity of the Liberal candidate is now known and the riding is reserved for Nathalie Le Prohon, a so-called ?star candidate? who is so unknown outside of her family that she has been described in a Canadian Press article as ?someone few Liberals know anything about?.
    An unnamed influential Liberal strategist had this to say about this decision in today's La Presse :
    ?C'est clairement une grave erreur d'?carter Martin Cauchon. Au Qu?bec, on n'a pas le luxe d'exclure un ancien ministre qui a si?g? au cabinet pendant presque 10 ans. On a besoin de gens qui ont de l'envergure. Et qu'on ne me serve pas l'argument du renouveau. ? ce compte-l?, Denis Coderre est largement disqualifi?.?
    Seems like Denis Coderre is too busy rejecting candidates who could be a threat to his own influence in the Liberal Party to care about maintaining the unity of his party.
    The NDP will keep Outremont.
    09 09 22 Smok Wawelski
    Would you believe that Iggy has just handed outremont over to the Dippers on a silver platter? It is now official that he has knuckled under to political correctness, or Denis Coderre or both, by telling Martin Cauchon that he is persona non-grata in any nomination process for Outremont, because (as Svend Robinson might have put it) ‘It's time we had a woman run’.
    Peel the onion back, and you will find that Coderre probably advised Iggy that Cauchon wants to be national leader and wants to come back now in order to facilitate that. Could it be that Coderre, believing that the next Lib convention will elect a Quebecois as leader as tradition would have it, and he was merely trying to neutralize a possible competitor?
    Nevertheless, they have probably just thrown Outremont away. It is a unbelievably shabby and cavalier attitude to treat the loyal party members.
    As for the whole idea of having a female candidate, the issue should be decided by the membership of the EDA, not party brass. It should not be about identity, but about quality and what the members decide... what a novel idea!
    09 09 21 Poll Junkie
    With Ignatieff's astonishing decision today to rebuff Cauchon's attempt to seek the nomination and appoint a Coderre protegée, the Libs have basically handed this seat to Mulcair for a 3rd time. Mulcair's strong profile and media-savvy persona and the focus of all NDP organizational efforts in Montreal to keeping his seat (the NDP other priority seat will be Gatineau and the Ottawa-area NDP gang will support that riding) already gave the NDP a good chance at this riding.
    Cauchon's public humiliation by Coderre and Iggy will ensure low turnout among the core Grit vote and some ‘ballot box slippage’ to Mulcair from Lib voters who are justifiably furious at the betrayal of the democratic process (Iggy is apppointing his candidate and there will not even be a nomination meeting!)
    Iggy has made many bad decisions since becoming Lib leader, but this is among his worst moves.
    09 09 20 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    This may be premature but...
    The Liberals (and Iggy in particular) have denied former Outremont MP Martin Cauchon a run at the nomination for this riding. This is just the controversy that lately has been losing ridings for the Liberals. Mulcair is very popular and he will keep it now that his main rival party will be embroiled in controversy.
    09 09 20 Nick J Boragina
    There have been some changes since my earlier projection. For one the Liberals have gone from polling at 37% province wide to 27% province wide. At this point in time (at 27% for the Liberals) this riding would go NDP, but it remains to be seen just how strong or weak the Liberal campaign will be.
    The NDP can lose the riding, but they can’t win it, the Liberals can do either. At this point in time, the Liberals are losing Outremont.
    09 09 17 DL
    The Liberals in Outremont are now in total disarray. Denis Coderre is imposing some corporate hack as Liberal candidate and doesn't care what the local Liberals think. Its the Jocelyn Coulon situation all over again. Mulcair would have been favoured anyways, but now that its clear that the Liberals are engaged in fratricidal civil war and that the candidate they will get stuck with sounds like a real nobody - Mulcair is the happiest man in town.
    09 09 11 Marco Ricci
    The recent polls from Strategic Counsel and Ekos this week have the NDP down to around 10% in Quebec, so it's hard to know what polls to believe right now as there appears to be some voter volatility going on.
    It also may take a few weeks to get a better grip on this riding because the Liberals have not yet announced their candidate. They apparently have a star candidate ready to go according to recent articles, but are waiting until the election begins to announce him.
    The Liberals can take back this riding if they get better numbers in Quebec under Ignatieff than Dion, and depending on whether they have chosen the right candidate (who is still a surprise).
    09 09 11 A.S.
    Bear in mind that it's conceivable that Mulcair could survive ?unfavourable? provincial NPD numbers much as all but one sitting Quebec Tory survived ?unfavourable? provincial CPC numbers last time--it's where the Tories *weren't* sitting that CPC experienced the bulk of its Quebec losses. (Speaking of Tories, Outremont was another seat where a sizable Orthodox Jewish population + an inconvenient election date led to weirdly skewed advance/special-poll results: over twice the final 10.5% result + one poll won.)
    09 09 10 Stevo
    Nick Boragina - for all the gloating bravado of your show of numbers, your argument remains wholly unconvincing.
    First off, considering the desperate straights the Liberals were in throughout non-Montreal Quebec, it isn't surprising that Iggy has managed to raise overall support - after all, they couldn't have gotten much worse. We don't know the breakdown of that 30% (and some polls show the Libs much lower in Quebec than that) and cannot assume that the bulk of the increase comes from already Liberal-friendly Montreal whose previous two leaders were themselves Montrealers.
    Secondly, you cannot pick and choose convenient examples. Why not mention Honore-Mercier, Hochelaga, or Papineau, all of which saw the Liberal vote rise in 2008? Or virtually every other Montreal riding where the Liberal vote was virtually static from its 2006 totals? The Montreal numbers in 2006 were almost identical to those in 2008. What changed? The candidacy of Thomas Mulcair! I believe he will withstand even a moderate improvement in Liberal fortunes.
    Even the ridings you cited are problematic to your argument. Mount Royal and Westmount, like Eglinton-Lawrence or York Centre, probably would have gradually declined for the Liberals anyway, relatively speaking, regardless of the party's performance overall. After all, you can't remain ?the safest Liberal seat in the country? forever, and the demographics are slowly working against the Liberals (though not by enough to defeat them). In addition, Outrement's somewhat higher Liberal vote in 2004 would've been skewed by the star candidacy of Jean Lapierre (oh! did you forget about him already?).
    Lastly, you forget that Bloc voters in downtown Montreal are more socialist than sovereignist, and would often consider their party allegiance interchangeable with the NDP. It is Bloc voters - not Liberals - who guaranteed Mulcair his victory, and they are not as easily, or naively, romanced by Iggy's platitudes as the more traditional Lib voters on the island.
    Nice try, but your numbers almost reinforce the opinion that Outrement will remain safely NDP barring a dramatic and unforeseen turnaround.
    09 09 10 Nick J Boragina
    (Please note the prediction is conditional on the below)
    To add to my earlier post about numbers, a recent poll shows the NDP at 17% in Montreal. If they truly are at 17%, they'd take Outremont with ease, despite the Liberal resurgence.
    At this time, however, I doubt they are at 17% in Montreal. They are still averaging 9% province wide. 28% of all Quebec voters are in Montreal. If the NDP is at 17% in Montreal, then they are at 6% in the rest of the province combined.
    I will continue to post updates with regards to numbers here. As I've said previously, unless something changes, the NDP will not win. A solid 17% on the Island of Montreal is just such a change that could result in them holding the riding.
    09 09 08 Nick J Boragina
    ?I don't think you can use Liberal weakness as an excuse for Mulcair's success because, quite frankly, I don't think the Liberals were particularly weak in West or downtown Montreal in 2008?
    That sounds like a challenge. Alright, lets take a look at the numbers!
    Lets note that the Liberals have been consistently polling near 30% in the province, a level they've not been at since 2004.
    Lets go riding by riding starting right here in Outremont, looking at the Liberal % of pop vote.
    2008 - 33.1%
    2007 - 29.0% (by-election)
    2006 - 35.2%
    2004 - 40.9%
    In Westmount
    2008 - 46.5%
    2006 - 45.7%
    2004 - 55.8%
    Over in Mount Royal...
    2008 - 55.7%
    2006 - 65.6%
    2004 - 75.7%
    Heck, lets see how the Leader of the Opposition did in 2008 compared to a liberal member (both Mr.Dion) in 2006 and 2004.
    2008 - 61.7%
    2006 - 59.9%
    2004 - 66.8%
    You also asked ?why would Outrement residents prefer another invisible Montreal Liberal MP instead of the man who may very likely succeed Jack Layton as NDP leader??. This question can be applied to any number of high-profile losing candidates in the past number of decades, including but not limited to former Prime Ministers (Kim Campbell comes to mind)
    I dont mean to be mean or anything, but the numbers on this one are pretty clear. Feel free to check the past predictions for this riding too, I was one of the first people to project an NDP win, and one of the most ardent. Frankly, it is as simple as this: either the Liberals need to drop in the polls in the province, or the NDP needs to raise from their current average of 9%-10%. If the NDP can manage to get back to their 2008 level of support in the province, this riding might be close, but it would still have a Liberal edge.
    09 09 07 Stevo
    I don't think you can use Liberal weakness as an excuse for Mulcair's success because, quite frankly, I don't think the Liberals were particularly weak in West or downtown Montreal in 2008. In this area, like very few others across Canada, the Liberals held their own. I believe Mulcair won on his own merits and I can't see Iggy's platform impressing Mulcair's supports any more than Dion's did. And besides, why would Outrement residents prefer another invisible Montreal Liberal MP instead of the man who may very likely succeed Jack Layton as NDP leader?
    The Liberal tradition here stops me from making a firm NDP prediction, but I do believe Mulcair has this effectively sewn up.
    Je crois que c'est probable que M. Mulcair maintienne son niveau de soutien ici et gagne - en tant que chef possible de l'NPD apres que M. Layton decidera de quitter, son valeur en tant que representant de cette circonscription est supérieur de celle d'un député Libéral invisible.
    09 09 06 Observer
    Tom Mulcair is running as frontrunner because for the first time since 1990, the leader of the federal Liberal Party is not from Québec and this will have an impact on the party's fortunes in the province. After Chrétien, Martin and Dion, Liberals have elected an Ontarian federal leader frustrating the Québec wing of the party which is thought to be the most powerful.
    09 09 06 Observer
    Tom Mulcair is running as frontrunner because for the first time since 1990, the leader of the federal Liberal Party is not from Québec and this will have an impact on the party's fortunes in the province. After Chrétien, Martin and Dion, Liberals have elected an Ontarian federal leader frustrating the Québec wing of the party which is thought to be the most powerful.
    09 09 01 Paul Tremblay
    Unless I missed something the Liberal Party has yet to announce their candidate for Outremont...
    It is said that Martin Cauchon is considering a comeback. Sebastien Dhavernas is also said to want to run again. Both certainly see themselves as great candidates but it is far from certain that voters agree with that. Cauchon especially may not realize that he won three elections not because of himself but because he was the Liberal candidate at a time where the Liberal Party could count on the vote of almost every federalist voter in the riding.
    Times have changed and if Cauchon or Dhavernas is the Liberal candidate, I would expect Mulcair to be re-elected narrowly.
    If the Liberals somehow manage to find a really good candidate I would then expect them to win this seat.
    At this point the race is still too close to call.
    09 09 01 Nick J Boragina
    The NDP won last time, partly, due to Liberal weakness. The Liberals are strong in Quebec again, with some polls having them tied for first. The NDP will no longer be up against a Liberal Party that has a very unpopular leader, this time they face the full wrath of the Liberals in all their grittitude (is that even a word? doubtful, but that's exactly what's coming)
    The Liberals should be able to take this riding back even against the harshest of NDP defenses.
    09 09 01 binriso
    The most important seat for the NDP to keep in Canada (other than maybe Edmonton-Strathcona). Muclair should win it but a Liberal victory is not out of the question since they’ll probably win 20 seats in Quebec next election and be strong in Montreal.
    09 08 31 MF
    I expect Mulcair to hang on. While the Liberals are up in the polls in Quebec (usually in the low 30s), the NDP is polling quite well in Quebec as well (around 17-18% according to CROP polls).
    09 08 26 Smok Wawelski
    I think it will go Liberal. Mulcair's best chance is if he replaces Jack Layton as leader.
    All it will take, now that Dion is gone, is a strong Lib candidate, and it's back in the Grit column.
    09 08 24 a.L.
    Liberals win. Mulcair won this on an anti-Dion low Liberal turnout. The Liberals will have a star, and Coderre and Trudeau will bring this back into the red column
    09 08 24 Observer
    I am not pretty sure this is going NDP because even the Liberal debacle in 2008 didn't hurt too much the Liberal candidate and he was leading the riding for a long period during the election night. Anyway, Tom Mulcair is the NDP star in Québec and I cannot see the party losing its sole MP in Québec.

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