Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011


La prévision a changé
2009-08-30 14:09:00

Profil de circonscription


Barbot, Vivian

Chopra, Shama

Macrisopoulos, Peter

Polifroni, Danny

Tejada, Marcos Radhames

Trudeau, Justin

Young, Joseph

Justin Trudeau

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • papineau-saint-denis (181/189 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 04 30 rsg
    Final prediction here is for Justin Trudeau to win here. there are a number of factors, the chief one being he's likely to be the next leader of the Liberal Party and could be the future Prime Minister. He will be able to bring the Liberal Party back to relevance in Quebec with his last name alone.
    11 04 29 Paul Tremblay
    Word on the street is that allophones in Quebec are much more likely to vote Liberal again this year compared to anglophones and francophones who voted Liberal in recent elections.
    I therefore tend to agree that the NDP surge will be an advantage for Justin Trudeau and will help him to save his seat.
    11 04 28 expat
    Justin Trudeau is going to be one of the few Liberals in the country whose ass is saved by the NDP surge.
    With the NDP Hoovering up Bloc votes, the threat that Barbot posed to him has lessened significantly. Duceppe dragging out Parizeau to campaign for the Bloc hurts any hope the Bloc had to get any decent portion of the sizable (40%) immigrant vote in Papineau.
    But while both the Bloc and the Liberals are bleeding support to the NDP, I don't think the NDP is going to be able to put together enough votes to overtake Trudeau. Tejada is a solid candidate, but doesn't have the kind of profile needed to knock off a star like Trudeau - although I wouldn't be surprised to see a 25%+ total, perhaps even a higher second place finish.
    If somehow the NDP manages to take this seat, you know that the sweep of Montreal is going to be nearly complete.
    11 04 28 SouthpawPundit
    With the NDP leading by between 13 and 20 in Quebec and the Liberals battling the Tories for 3rd, it's easy to see Trudeau lose this seat. He won't lose it to the BQ though. It seems as though every time Jacques Parizeau opens his mouth, the NDP gains support in Quebec.
    11 04 28 Tory in Dixie
    Mon prediction ... pendant le soir 2e mai, tout le monde sera en anticipation si le fils de P.E.T. sera retourne a la chambre des communs ... en le fin, Justin obtiendra 13 mille votes, le bloc 12 mille, et l'npd, 11 mille.
    11 04 28 Marco Ricci
    Article from
    ‘And while the BQ would like to snatch away Justin Trudeau's seat in Papineau, he is expected to keep it. ‘
    11 04 25 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    It seems throughout Quebec that the NDP is taking support from the BQ and, to a lesser extent, the CPC. The Liberal numbers are holding, albeit down slightly. Now Duceppe is spooked by Jackomania and has toned up the rhetoric and brought in former premier parizeau to help out. Parizeau will get the non-francophone vote out for sure...against the BQ. We all remember his money and ethnic comments from '95 and it still stings. These moves have certainly helped cement Trudeau's victory on May 2nd.
    11 04 23 SHS
    Star candidate Justin Trudeau will take this one for the Liberals, and use his victory to springboard his increased political involvement. It's a hotly contested riding, but NDP will steal some votes from the Bloc, leading the Liberals to victory.
    11 04 24 Marco Ricci
    Matt's post sounds like a BQ talking point. Justin has not been out of the riding for the whole campaign - he spent only about 2 days outside of his riding. Vivian Barbot often leaves the riding to tour across Quebec by Gilles Duceppe's side, yet the BQ seems to always complain whenever Justin leaves the riding. Anyway, the main question here is who the NDP takes more support from - the Liberals or the BQ. If they take more from the Liberals, that hurts Justin. If they take more from the BQ, that hurts Barbot.
    11 04 22 rsg
    Je suis un peu sceptique Matt que ces chiffres vont vrai jour de l'election venir. Neverleas, cette circonscription eilra Justin Trudeau comme il est probanle un chef de file un avenir proche du Parti liberal et un futur premier-ministre. La course est ici entre le Bloc et Justin, en fait la pointe dans les sondages aide reellement Justin car il faut plus de voix hors du Bloc coome ille fait de Justin, i'aider a gagner. En dehors de Outrement, dont je vais avouer maintenant que Cauchon ne sera pas en mesure de reprendre, je ne crois pas que le NPD va gagner rien d'autre a Montreal. dans les regions rurales du Quebec, tous les paris sont.
    I'm somewhat skeptical Matt that these numbers are going to hold true come election day. Neverless, this riding will elect Justin Trudeau as he's likely a near future leader of the Liberal Party and a future Prime Minister. the race here is between the Bloc and Justin, actually the spike in the polls actually helps Justin as it takes more votes away from the Bloc as it does from Justin, helping him win. Outside of Outrement,which i'll admit now that Cauchon will not be able to recapture, i don't believe the NDP will win anything else in Montreal. In rural Quebec all bets are off.
    11 04 21 Matt
    With Justin having been on secondary tour all election to boost up fledgling Liberal candidates in the GTA, he is particularly at risk now that the NDP are above 35% in Quebec, much of which is concentrated in the Montreal area. The BQ are down to 25% and the Liberals are down around 18% according to averages of three recent polls - Crop, Ekos, and Forum. Papaineau has decided it's time for a change.
    11 04 19 Marco Ricci
    Journalist Chantal Hébert says this riding is leaning towards Justin Trudeau:
    ‘While Cauchon’s bid for a return to Parliament is faltering in Outremont, the opposite is happening in Trudeau’s Papineau riding. Even as they are upgrading Outremont’s status from a possible to a probable NDP win on May 2, most observers are maintaining Papineau in the Liberal column.’
    11 04 14 Neal
    Say what you want about young Mr. Trudeau's politics, and the mouth that sometimes runneth over,he earned his nomination, and then won a hard-fought riding the hard way. He has shown he can do it without riding on his father's coattails, so he beats Barbot by an even healthier margin.
    11 04 13 Stéphane Gaudet
    Il faudrait vraiment que le vote libéral s'écroule ou que le Bloc fasse beaucoup mieux qu'en 2008 pour que le comté retombe dans le giron bloquiste. Au contraire, le Bloc est en voie de faire moins bien qu'en 2008 ou le même résultat, au mieux. Les difficultés des libéraux au Québec francophone n'ont pas d'impact dans cette circonscription où le vote non-francophone est acquis aux libéraux peu importe la conjoncture et où les francophones, de toute façon, ne votent pas libéral. Réélection de Trudeau dans ce comté naturellement libéral où l'intermède bloquiste aura été un accident de parcours.
    11 04 04 Marco Ricci
    The Liberals are improving in the latest Quebec polls. Justin is probably a little more secure now than he was a couple of weeks ago, although he is not out of the woods yet.
    11 04 02 M.Lunn
    Despite Justin Trudeau's name recognition, this has been a very tight race in the past three elections and likely will be again. The Bloc dominates the Francophone vote while the Liberals the Allophone vote. At this point I give the edge to the Liberals, but far from certain.
    11 03 30 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Primarity Haitian? I think not! Large Haitian community? Yes, that is a correct statement, but about 45% of this riding considers their mother tongue to be other than English or French, such as Spanish, Greek and Arabic (the Haitian commuity speak French). No this riding is far more complicated and far more ethnically diverse than just being a Haitian riding.
    11 03 29 Evans Lafleur-Turnier
    Marshall Howard Bader i think you should go check the profiles communities 2006 for this riding this is NOT a haitian riding you got to go north of the metropolitain highway in the saint-leonard-saint-michel riding to find the haitian community and i think this riding will go to justin trudeau
    11 03 29 Marco Ricci
    This riding is being called a tight race by most in the Montreal media. Vivian Barbot is back running for the BQ and is going after Trudeau on 2 issues: she is claiming that he has ignored the riding because he is busy planning for a leadership run, and that he was wrong to call out the Conservatives' use of ‘barbaric’ in the Citizenship Guide. Ordinarily I would have predicted that Justin Trudeau would win here because he was able to win last time against an incumbent in a weak year for the Liberals and because Barbot was only MP for 2 years and doesn't have much of an advantage left. However, the reason I am now making it too close to call is because the Liberals are down in the polls from where they were in 2008. That could lead to Justin Trudeau's defeat. We will have to watch the polls over the next month to see where they go.
    11 03 29 Marshall Howard Bader
    The former BQ candidate is running in this primarily Haitian riding. She will win a squeaker here.
    11 03 28 WAC
    The latest CROP poll had the Liberals at 11% in Quebec and 8% amongst francophone voters. It wasn't a small sample size poll either - it had 1,000 participants. Trudeau only won this riding by 1,200 votes or 2.8%. So it was very close last time. In fact it was extremely close in 2004, 2006, and 2008. Trudeau is a prominent member of the Liberal party with name recognition, and by all account a very active campaigner and local MP, which should give him an edge. But if the Liberals get 11% of the vote in Quebec and 8% amongst francophones, then he is in serious trouble.
    Papineau is an interesting riding that has produced some very close races since 2004. This riding is an even mix of francophone and allophone voters and one of the poorest in the country. A lot of factors at play. Its TCTC for now and if Trudeau loses on election day, it wouldn't shock me.
    11 03 29 Tony Ducey
    A lot of people claim Justin Trudeau is vulnerable. Can't see it, think he wins this riding.
    11 02 06 Marco Ricci
    I'm not sure why Paul Tremblay concludes that Trudeau's candidacy had no effect on the vote here in 2008. Most of the Quebec analysts I have listened to say that Trudeau's name and strong ground operation did make the difference in this riding. He did an enormous amount of door-knocking in the 18 months leading up to the election. The Liberals went up in Quebec about 2 points between 2006 and 2008, and yet this was the only new seat the Liberals picked up (except for the one in Brossard that Alexandra Mendes won on a re-count), so I would agree with most of the analysts that Trudeau made a difference here.
    However, I do agree that if the Liberals don't get their act together in Quebec there's a possibility they could lose this riding, as well as the one in Brossard. In 2009 when Ignatieff first became leader, he surged ahead of the BQ in the polls. But since then he has collapsed down and is way behind the BQ and is in the low 20's just like Dion was.
    Trudeau's incumbency will actually help a bit IMO, and I think the longer it is before the next election the less likely it becomes that Vivian Barbot will run again for the BQ. She announced she was planning to run again back in Sept 09 when there was talk of an election, but then it got canceled as has happened so many times since 2008. She was not an MP for very long though, so if she runs again she won't have much of a former incumbency advantage. So I give a slight advantage to Trudeau right now, but Trudeau better tell the Liberals to get their game moving again in Quebec or his riding could be in trouble.
    11 01 28 Paul Tremblay
    Things have changed since 2009 and it is now becoming more and more obvious that the Liberals will be playing defense in Quebec.
    I still believe that Trudeau's candidacy and name have not changed a single vote in 2008 in Papineau -- it didn't help the Liberals, and it was not a handicap for them. I expect this will still be true this time, as incumbency is not a meaningful factor in a riding like this one.
    The Liberal margin of victory was quite narrow in 2008 and as a result, Trudeau is now vulnerable. Will he lose ? It is still too early to make such a prediction at this point.
    09 10 10 Gone Fishing
    Somewhere along the line the Liberals (both the card carrying type and the punditry) have to start looking at some seats in Quebec as being vulnerable as the implosion continues at the top of the Liberal Party of Toronto. this is a riding where the previous Liberal MP fought tooth and nail to win 2004 and lose a close one in 2006.
    However, with baby Trudeau here this riding isn't one they have to worry about for a long long long long long time. Contrary to Paul Tremblay who suggests the Trudeau name meant nothing, the threee point swing took the riding back into Liberal hands and with most of the province and yes even Quebec cooling to the Dion led Liberals I suggest the name must have had some clout.
    The name Trudeau on this riding gives the Liberals HOPE because the entire party reveres the elder Trudeau as God. Losing this riding would be as disastrous to the future of the Liberal party as Iggy losing Etobicoke Lakeshore. They could take a Kim Campbell like beating and they would have HOPE if Trudeau won Papineau. If not it would be like cutting off the head of the liberal turkey - it would be FINAL.
    When Jacques Parizeau teams with Gilles Duceppe to carry a red and white flag with a maple leaf on it in the Baptiste parades other candidates have a chance but until then it's Justie's to win as long as there is a Liberal party.
    09 09 03 Marco Ricci
    If Justin Trudeau was able to win this riding last year against an incumbent BQ MP and do it when the Liberals were low in the polls in Quebec, he should be able to win it again this time now that there is no BQ incumbent and since the Liberals are higher in the polls in Quebec under Ignatieff.
    The BQ do not seem to have nominated a candidate here yet - perhaps they are not making this riding a priority this time?
    09 09 01 Paul Tremblay
    Here are a few facts proving that the Trudeau name did not help the Liberal Party in any way in Papineau.
    The Liberals won 23.7 percent of the vote in Quebec in 2008 compared to 20.7 percent of the vote in 2006.
    The Liberals won 41.5 percent of the vote in Papineau in 2008 compared to 38.5 percent of the vote in 2006.
    In both cases there is a three-point increase.
    Conclusion : Trudeau's candidacy and name did not change a single vote in Papineau in 2008.
    The Liberal Party will keep this seat but only because they will win more votes generally in Quebec this year.
    09 08 27 Observer
    Trudeau is so a strong name in Canada that this name is more important than the personality or the candidate program for the riding. Liberal landslide.
    09 08 27 JF Breton
    Je risque tout de suite une prédiction. Si Barbot n'a pas pu déloger Trudeau, je vois mal qui pourrait le faire. Ce sera serré, tout dépendra du candidat contre Trudeau, mais la machine libérale aura l'avantage d'être rodée et de faire sortir le vote.
    09 08 27 Don't Tase Me, Bro!
    Justin's been on a pretty low profile since getting elected. I saw him give a good speech once at the Toronto Economic Board of Trade, but that doesn't say anything about his reelection chances. Still, the Trudeau name did carry him through in 2008, as he was only 2 of Quebec Liberals that defeated incumbent Bloc MPs. I'm inclined to give Trudeau the edge in this one.
    11 04 28 Voice of Reason
    Is Trudeau really that safe? He seems to be loved in a lot of places, but his riding is always close. With the Liberals bleeding badly he might be at risk.

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