Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011


La prévision a changé
2011-05-01 22:39:00

Profil de circonscription


Boudreau, Marc

Faille, Meili

Massenet, Jean-Yves

Nicholls, Jamie

Pelchat, Lyne

Meili Faille

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • vaudreuil-soulanges (188/188 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 05 01 Stéphane Gaudet
    Pour qu'une souverainiste soit réélue avec 42% du vote dans un comté qui n'est pas du tout souverainiste, battant même avec 11 000 votes de majorité un gros canon du Parti conservateur (le ministre responsable de la région de Montréal Michael Fortier), il faut que la députée fasse un fichu de bon travail et soit appréciée au-delà de son idéologie. Si elle a battu Fortier, qui pourrait la battre ? Victoire de Meili Faille demain, pas du Bloc !
    11 04 28 Tory in Dixie
    Dans le region Outouais et pres de Montreal, sera un region orange apres le 2 mai ... le Bloc est fort mais il faut souvenir que il y a dix ans cette circonscription etait represente par le liberal M. Discepolla. Sans M. Fortier et un presence fort conservateur, l'npd a une chance excellent ici.
    11 04 27 Neal
    Thanks for your answer paul, I also read your gatineau commnets wityh which i agree, except thgat it does seem Mme Boivin should take that riding, though your comments cast some doubt on that now. that said, I see a bubble rather than a wave too. NDP supporters get really angry when i compare it to the British LibDem situation. and sgoodd call, reminding me of when my hopes were dashed in 1997 as the PC bubble burst prior to election day...
    having looked over the numbers, the histories and situations on the ground as i understand them, I say the NDP wins between 5 and 18 seats in Quebec. No more. 1) they lack boots on the ground. They werre able to subvert the Bloc organization in Outremont, and have had limited success doing likewise in adjacent Plateau and east end ridings, in most ridings the Bloc machine has remained loyal.
    2) while we laugh at Fat Jack, bringing parizeau along is a good way to shore up the bas e to actually get to the polls and vote. It will help save some of the furniture.
    3) I still think that Libs and Tories will benefit in some ridings, and may not only hold what they have but make small gains.
    4) At the end of the day, The worst the bloc can do is about 30 seats, the Libs can count on 16, and the Tories 11-12 (incl. Arthur) this leaves 17-18 forb the NDP at MOST, and i don't believe they'll get all of them, let alone most.
    Some Dippers are getting ghiddy at the prospect of taking ridings like NDG-Lachine, Westmount-Ville Marie, and even Papineau. I just don't see those coming to pass.
    11 04 27 JFBreton
    Je serais très surpris d'une victoire autre que bloquiste. Remontée néo-démocrate, baisse de l'appui libéral, effritement du vote bloquiste, stagnation du vote conservateur... tous ces éléments donneront sans doute une lutte un peu plus serrée, à quatre. Mais Meili Faille est solide et impliquée dans son comté.
    11 04 26 Paul Tremblay
    Neal : I would still be extremely surprised to see anyone other than Meili Faille winning.
    Past elections have unfortunately shown clearly that eight to ten percent of voters in V-S are voters who would normally vote for a federalist candidate but vote for the Bloc candidate because it's Meili Faille.
    I believe that the NDP vote in Quebec will not be anywhere near what some opinion polls suggest (please see my latest post for Gatineau for a full explanation) and if I'm correct this would mean that the NDP cannot cause a Liberal or a Conservative win in V-S because the Bloc would not lost that much support to the NDP.
    In any case socialism is not popular in V-S and I can't see the NDP doing well here except if they had a landslide in Quebec, and even the most optimistic polls for them do not suggest this.
    Bert Markgraf would have been a better candidate for the NDP, but he is not running and in any case Meili Faille's organizers appear to be *extremely* loyal to her, the only way I could see them change parties would be if Faille herself switched parties.
    This being said, if the NDP rise is a wave and not the bubble I think it is, I could see Boudreau winning by a small margin, he got surprisingly good coverage in the local media compared to other federalist candidates.
    Bottom line : still an easy win for Meili Faille this year.
    11 04 25 GR
    Ms Faille will win this riding, she is strong locally and is relatively active in the house. An NDP Star candidate could win the seat. And with the sponsorship scandal fading, a good liberal candidate could win as well. This is not the case this election.
    11 04 24 Neal Ford
    I'm gpingv to address Paul tremblay in particular on this one. I was with him on this ridiong until the recent (so it seems) implosion of the Bloc, that Meili Faille had a lock on this.
    Could the NDP peel away enough of Faille's vote to allow one of these Libs or tories to come up the middle?
    I think that had Bert markgraf run again, this riding might have gone Dipper, as some of Faille's organization might have defected and gone to work for him, but at this stage and with the candidate they have, perhaps the best we can hope for is for Faille to lose just enough votes.
    11 04 24 CK
    Due to vote splitting and potential NDP push, I would say that the Conservatives will come up the middle here.
    I lived in Hudson during part of my youth. I remembered pretty much how all the yacht club and country club folks were going to vote for Mulroney back in the day. I thought that my parents were the only ones voting Liberal back then. The neighbouring town of St-Lazare has grown since, thus more CPoC voters, no doubt. The NDP will be splitting their votes with the Bloc in places like Rigaud, Vaudreuil and the other mainly Francophone areas.
    I doubt Jack Layton would be considered a hometown boy for Hudson anymore than he would be a Quebecer. He's clearly a Torontonian.
    I'll say it's too close to call, but leaning Conservative.
    11 04 22 SouthpawPundit
    Jack's hometown of Hudson is in this riding. If the NDP keeps surging and the Grits keep tanking, Mme. Faille may compete with Gilles Duceppe for the honour of becoming this year's Michael Portillo. Personally, though, if either of them are decent human beings, I'm sure they'd be far less ashamed to lose to a party led by Jack Layton than to a party led by Tony Blair.
    11 04 04
    Sadly, Meili Faille will win this riding again due to a split federalist vote which otherwise would defeat her here. This was the riding of Pierre H. Cadieux at one time.
    11 04 01 Sid
    The incumbent has won three landslides in a row: first beating an incumbent in 2004, then beating a Liberal star candidate in 2006, then beating a Tory star candidate in 2008. There is absolutely no reason to think the result will be any different this time, especially as the Liberals and Tories have lower profile candidates.
    11 03 30 Tony Ducey
    Fortier and Garneau couldn't win here so they're not running again this time so the BQ win here again.
    11 03 28 M.Lunn
    If Liberal star candidate Marc Garneau and Tory cabinet minister Micheal Fortier couldn't even come close to beating the Bloc, there is no reason either party could do it this time around with less known candidates.
    11 01 28 Paul Tremblay
    Few things have changed since my last submission for Vaudreuil-Soulanges.
    The Liberal candidate lost all credibility before her nomination as she pretended that rumours about her candidacy were unfounded, only a week or so before her candidacy was announced. She had the option of not making any comments, but she chose to lie and mislead people instead. Not a good start to say the least.
    The Conservative candidate is a joke, nothing is clear about him or what he believes, he is not even sure about what his name is.
    Meili Faille remains popular, she will win again, and it will not even be close. In the highly unlikely event that Faille does not run again, the Bloc will win anyway, thanks to federalist vote-splitting between two of the worst candidates I've seen in a very long time. I'm not happy about this, but there's no point in pretending that a federalist win is possible this time, when clearly it is not.
    10 01 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    R.O.: You assessment is reasonable but you failed to take into account why these two high profile candidates failed to secure the seat for their respective parties. Traditionally this has been a Liberal riding and not really a seperatists stronghold. Marc Garneau ran here during the height of the sponsorship scandle, and as a result lost miserably. Really no surprise when even more Liberal friendly ridings were falling to the BQ (such as Brossard, Ahunsic, Papineau, Brome-Missiquoi, etc). Enter Michael Fortier, Steven Harper's unelected Montreal area cabinet minister. Everyone with an iota of common sense knows that Fortier would not have a prayer on the island of Montreal, so it seemed logical to run him off island where his chances are better. How do you thing the voters felt that this unelected minister (recall people were not happy with his appointment) from Mount Royal (read richy and largely English) is parachuted into this mostly rural, largely Francophone riding that doesn't have much of a Conservative hisotory save for the Mulroney years and 5 years in the later 1950's/early 1960's? They probably were not that impressed and it was reflected in how they voted. Better a local girl than someone coming down from up high because he could not win elsewhere. Now had the CPC storm blown through Quebec as it appeared to be doing at the start of last election, there would have been a closer outcome. Bottom line, this is not a conservative riding and people shouldn't be fooled into thinking that the CPC can take it unless they are riding a major wave in Quebec. For the Liberals, our prognosis isn't much better but we think they have a shot at retaking it. It's a long shot and should be viewed as a second-tier take-back two elections from now. Unless they're doing better in Quebec closer to e-day, they should focus more on winning back Gatineau and a host of other ridings in Montreal proper.
    09 12 11 R.O.
    After 2 high profile federalist party candidates went to waste here ( Marc Garneau and Michael Fortier ) i see little chance with the current polls from quebec that it will be going anywhere but the bloc and current mp Meili Faille . as long as the bloc leads in the polls it very unlikely they lose such a seat as it allready turned down some high profile candidates for both the liberals and conservatives. and neither is likely to have anyone high profile run here next election or put significant resources into the riding.
    Apres que 2 haut profil candidats de parti federaliste sont alles gaspiller ici (Marc Garneau et Michael Fortier) je vois le petit hasard avec les sondages actuels de Québec qu'il ira n'importe ou mais le bloc et mp Meili Faille actuel. pourvu que le bloc mene dans les sondages il tres peu probable ils perdent un tel siege comme il allready a refuse quelques hauts candidats de profil pour les deux Les liberaux et les conservateurs et ni va en toute probabilite avoir n'importe qui haut profile la course ici prochaine election ou a mis des ressources significatives dans le prendre.
    09 09 01 Paul Tremblay
    Smok, I have seen the flyer to which you refer and I agree that it was disgraceful, unfortunately most people don't pay attention to these flyers and therefore I doubt it will have any real effect on the election.
    The problem with your prediction is this :
    Normally the PQ/BQ vote in Vaudreuil-Soulanges has always been approximately 6 points under the provincial PQ/BQ average.
    But in 2006 the Bloc won 42 percent of the vote in Quebec and Meili Faille won 43 percent of the vote in Vaudreuil-Soulanges.
    And in 2008 the Bloc won 38 percent of the vote in Quebec and Meili Faille won 41 percent of the vote in Vaudreuil-Soulanges.
    Meanwhile in recent provincial elections the PQ vote remained at more or less 6 points under the PQ provincial average.
    This means that almost ten percent of the voters in the riding are people who would normally vote for a federalist candidate but choose to vote for Meili Faille instead.
    The Liberal Party would have to perform very well in Quebec generally (and by ‘very well’ I mean getting more votes than the Bloc, which seems highly unlikely) and have a really good local candidate (which also seems highly unlikely at this point) just to have a chance to win the riding.
    There is still no doubt whatsoever in my mind that Meili Faille will win once again... unfortunately.
    09 08 28 Smok Wawelski
    Paul, I agree that if your prediction comes to pass, it will be 'unfortunately' , however, as a former resident of that riding, I think that a strong Liberal candidate will take it.
    Meili has held it since 2004 mainly because of vote splitting among Federalists.
    Somebody sent me a flyer put out by this MP at taxpayer expense. Ostensibly it was the mailings that MPs regularly send to update their constuents, but this piece of taxpayer subsidized trash was nothing more than outright separatist propaganda. It stated that Meili Faille was 'Votre Depute SOUVERAINISTE' and outlined why sovereignty was neccessary, why Bill 101 needs to be tightened and enforced, and on & on.
    Moreover it was in French only and last time I checked, there were significant anglophone poulations in Pincourt,Hudson And st Lazare.
    I fail to see how any non separatist could see this as anything else than what it was: a piece of BLOC Quebecois propaganda sent out at taxpayer expense. Not a WORD about what Meili was up to in Ottawa as an MP, no pictures of her even cutting a ribbon anywhere!
    After the Michael Fortier fiasco, the Tories will likely concentrate resources in areas where hey can actually win seats, while the Liberals seem to be faring better in and around Montreal, so thy should have no trouble recruiting a good candidate.
    Basically if vote splitting ends, Meili is gone. I just can't see how any federalist would have not been insulted and incensed by that mailing. It was hubris at its maximum.
    09 08 26 Paul Tremblay
    As a longtime resident of this riding, I can attest that Meili Faille continues to be extremely popular locally. There is no doubt whatsoever in my mind that she will win once again... unfortunately.
    09 08 26 Smok Wawelski
    The Bloc has been holding this riding since 2004 because of Liberal-Tory vte splitting. Libs will be able to find a strong candidate this time, and the Tories will concentrate their resources on the seats they have, and incressing their totals in the Quebec/Lac St jean/Beauce periphery, rather than wasting their time and money in Vaudreuil. bye bye Meili!

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