Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2011


La prévision a changé
2011-05-01 22:39:00

Profil de circonscription


Carkner, Andrew

Corbeil, Joanne

Drabkin, Neil

Garneau, Marc

Haliburton, Victoria

Roy, Véronique

Sloan, Bill

Marc Garneau

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • notre-dame-de-grace-lachine (51/221 Polls)
  • westmount-ville-marie (144/187 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 05 01 TCR
    The NDP seat count for Quebec is still too low on this page, and this is the riding that receives non-stop talk in the media about going NDP. It's adjacent to Outremont, never had much of any bloq support, and the NDP finished second last time with a good candidate. Any seat where the NDP finished second last time, when they were under 20% in the polls, will surely go NDP now that they are first among both anglophones and francophones and over 40% in the province and Montreal.
    11 04 30 rsg
    Not enough wind in NDP sails to take any Liberal strong holds on the Island of Montreal, with the exception of Outrement, which they already hold.
    11 05 01 Marco Ricci
    I don't see the NDP winning 50 seats in Quebec. Even the BQ has only managed to do that a few times. Even getting to 40 seats in Quebec may be a challenge. I think 25-35 is more likely. I think that is what Joel-Denis Bellavance of La Presse is predicting.
    11 04 28 Teddy Boragina
    The NDP is sitting on near 50 seats in Quebec. To presume they'll win 50 other seats, is insanity. The NDP also does have a strong history here, they have had said history for 3 decades.
    11 04 28 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
    On vacation in Europe and heard people chatting about Layton! Hes going to win big and Prof Ape and I might be buying Nick/Teddy a six pack of bleu. I still say a liberal hold but I can not ignore the polling numbers. A word of warning to the EPP guys; You got it very wrong with your Quebec page. We are looking at an ADQ type sweep when the NDP are sitting at 41%...that what the BQ usually gets. Trust me...time to revise many a predictions!
    11 04 28 binriso
    Lets see:
    Last election, NDP had half the support of Liberals provincewide and in this riding more or less
    This Election, NDP have double the support of the Liberals provincewide (or in some cases nearly triple)
    Not unthinkable at all for the NDP to win here. It wouldnt be by much but if the NDP get to the mid-high 30s here the seat likely moves to them. Even looking at the 1990s results here the NDP were above provincial average (okay 5-6% with less than 2% provincewide essentially but still).
    11 04 27 Daniel
    It is unthinkable that this riding should go orange. While it's true that this constituency is full of students, most of them I suspect will be back home on election day. Also, I believe that many well-to-do voters living in Westmount who might have been inclined to vote Tory might now switch to Liberal in order to stop the prospect of a socialist representing a constituency where some of the richest people in the country reside.
    11 04 26 Pierre de Laval
    Who would have thought ?
    This Liberal stronghold may well go NPD on May 2nd. If this were to happen, the NDP could be on it's way to winning as much as 40 ridings in the province of Quebec.
    Who said this campaign was boring ?
    11 04 25 Guy Concordia
    8) I also forgot to mention that McGill and Concordia probably inflate the NDP numbers from September-April at least somewhat. I don't know how many NDP students will have had the foresight to vote in this riding before going home for the summer.
    Boréale Blanche is my beer in Quebec, Vancouver Island Sea Dog in BC.
    11 04 24 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    We're not in disagreement on IF the NDP will make a break through in Quebec this election. We disagree on the WHERE. Anglophone Quebec voters are far more cautious in how they vote. It's the Francophone voters that will go massively ADQ or PC or NDP or try just about anything new. This why we don't think the NDP will take this riding (or NDP-lachine). Really starting to expect to see wins in surprising locations off island and out of the Montreal region. Oh yeah Nick/Teddy, La Fin du Monde is our beer of choice.
    11 04 24 expat
    Garneau will manage to be re-elected here, against a relatively strong NDP second place showing.
    This might have been competitive if the NDP run Lagacé-Dowson again, or found a similarly high profile candidate to substitute for her. There is enough of a potential NDP vote in the riding that in the current Quebec environment it could have been competitive. (Contrary to what many think when they hear ‘Westmount’, the bulk of voters in the riding reside in less ritzy areas - high rises buildings in the western side of downtown, student buildings near Concordia, 30% visible minority, only 36% have English as mother tongue, 34% allophone, 29% Francophone, etc).
    But I don't see it happening with the current low key, unknown NDP candidate - she seems sincere, but unlikely to be able to be able to mount a major challenge to a high profile MP like Garneau. If she is competitive when the election results come in, it will clearly be a sign that Laytonmania is sweeping the province in a huge way -- I don't see it happening, but it bears watching.
    11 04 23 Teddy Boragina
    The NDP actually does have a lot of history here, this riding has been their top few in the province for a decade or two. Also, I prefer Bleu.
    11 04 23 Guy Concordia
    I live right in the heart of this riding (at Guy Concordia). I do see more NDP sings than Liberal ones and this riding was indeed the NDP's 3rd best showing in 2008. However, I don't think the NDP will take this for a number of reasons:
    1) The Liberals now have the incumbency advantage. Marc Garneau has been very visible since he was elected.
    2) The NDP don't have the star candidate that they had last time (radio journalist Anne Lagacé Dowson).
    3) The NDP surge has come mostly at the expense of the Bloc. There is very little Bloc vote to steal in the riding.
    4) The type of Liberal vote in this riding is less likely to go NDP than the average Liberal vote in Québec. The average family income in this riding is $129K (82% higher than the provincial average).
    5) As a previous poster pointed out, the sign war is a poor indicator of voting intention or candidate support. The signs in Ville Marie are on lampposts and hydro poles. And although there are more NDP signs than Liberal ones, there are more Marc Garneau signs than Joanne Corbeil signs.
    6) The Liberals didn't need to work to get out the vote last time. This time they do and they will.
    7) I don't think that the NDP vote will hold. If it continues to soar, this seat may be vulnerable. But if it levels off or begins to come back down, I think this seat will remain Liberal.
    11 04 24
    From a Press person on the ground..
    I can't believe how many NDP signs I am seeing in longtime Montreal Liberal strongholds such as Mount Royal, Westmount-Ville Marie and NDG-Lachine. This could get very interesting ...
    11 04 24 Full Name
    Je ne serais pas surpris de voir WVM passer aux mains des néo-démocrates puisque le dernier sondage CROP-La Presse montre que 40% des Montréalais voteraient pour le NPD, et ce chiffre augmente a 45% pour les non-francophones, qui sont essentiellement majoritaires dans cette circonscription.
    Reste à voir si les anglophones de Westmount vont être ouverts à voter autre chose que le Parti Libéral qu'ils ont toujours élu.
    11 04 23 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Sign war? Liar! There are no signs on private lawns in Quebec. Only on public property and so what? Anyone can put up a sign. Signs don't vote. On private lawns it shows support for a party within a community. No such indicators. Stop trying to mislead people into thinking that the NDP are sweeping this riding when there isn't any such indication from private lawn signs.
    11 04 23 Jon Murray
    Seeing how the NDP polls in Quebec, I don't think the Westmount people are this resistant to changing their Liberal vote. Moreover, this is the third best 2008 result for the NDP in Quebec, that is after Outremont and Gatineau. I don't see for example Jeanne-LeBer going NDP before WVM does.
    11 04 23
    On the ground the NDP have won the sign war..and today is the NDP rally in Montreal
    11 04 23 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    @ Teddy/Nick, At home in Montreal for the holiday weekend and there is talk about Jack Layton doing well in Quebec however the support appears soft. Think it's likely that people will go default to the Liberals in many English-Montreal ridings. Willing to concede gatineau to the NDP and will even suggest that the NDP have a very strong chance in the other Ottawa area ridings but not so much in western Montreal. You're willing to stake your reputation on the NDP taking Westmount? Friendly wager? We'll buy you a six pack of your favorite beer if the NDP take it, you buy ours if the Liberals win?
    11 04 22 SouthpawPundit
    Too English for the Bloc, too wealthy for the NDP (save for certain parts of Ville Marie that lack the necessary), and too socially liberal for Reform Mark III.
    11 04 21 Teddy Boragina
    I'm willing to steak my reputation on the NDP winning this riding. They have the math to win, even on 20% of the vote. On 30% this seat would become ‘solid’ for them.
    11 04 20 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Sorry Nick/Teddy, still say no dice on the NDP winning here. Our reasons:
    1. The bulk of the population lives in the city of Westmount: read old money. They may be socially progressive and may have supported the PC in the past but they're not that progressive to go NDP. The Liberals best fit their bill.
    2. NDP have the numbers the CPC had in '06 in Quebec but western Montreal ridings vote more like 416 ridings. So whereas Quebec Francophone ridings will switch allegences very quickly, Anglo-Montreal ridings are harder to crack.
    3.The CPC won those seats in '06 in areas where they have had previous support (in other conservative incarnations) but the NDP has never really had much support in Quebec.
    4.As you said yourself for Hamilton Mountain, the numbers don't take into account a star candidate. Marc Garneau is a star candidate.
    Now we are not discrediting what you are saying. Actually we agree that the NDP may do better in Quebec than many expect. We just disagree on where they will take seats. Westmount is no more NDP-friendly than Vancouver Quadra or St Paul's. NDG, which does make up a chunk of this riding is NDP-friendly in a Trinity-Spadina sort of way. If after redistribution, NDG becomes a whole riding and isn;t split between two, then we could see the NDP winning there.
    11 04 19 Teddy Boragina
    The NDP is polling over 21% in all but a single poll recently. Poll averaging puts the NDP in second place in Quebec. Just like the 10-seat-shocker for the Tories in 2006 in Quebec, the NDP has the math, and will win seats nobody expects them to. Westmount is one of these seats. If the NDP maintains these polling levels, mark my words, they will win this seat. Period.
    11 04 17 MF
    Part of the Liberal Fortress in Montreal, this is a riding where the NDP has done better historically because of its large number of anglo progressives. In spite of the NDP surge in Quebec, however, the NDP is not running a high profile candidate and more so than any other riding in Quebec more of the NDP universe has been tapped. Marc Garneau will have no problem being re-elected.
    11 03 29 Marco Ricci
    Looks like the NDP aren't targeting this seat like they did in 2008. In the last election the NDP was beaten here by Marc Garneau by a 2:1 margin even after it had run a strong campaign against him with a high-profile candidate in Anne Lagace-Dowson. Garneau is now the incumbent and probably safe and doesn't appear to be facing any high-profile candidates from either the NDP or the Conservatives. But if Liberal polls in Quebec remain low, he could see a decline in this election.
    11 03 28 M.Lunn
    About half the riding is Liberal and there are strong throughout. By contrast the Bloc is limited to the Francophone minority, the NDP mostly amongst the students and downtown young singles/common laws and the Conservatives largely limited to the very wealthy in Westmount. By contrast the Liberal support is pretty evenly spread out and strong in all areas not just a few pockets.
    11 03 28 Tony Ducey
    Garneau keeps this seat with the Liberals. Remember 2008? When the NDP thought they had a chance here?
    09 09 01 MF
    Westmount-Ville Marie has been one of the safest Liberal ridings in the country forever and I don't see that changing any time soon. Anne Lagace Dowson was about the strongest possible candidate for the NDP and while she certainly had a very respectable showing she didn't come even close to beating Marc Garneau. While there is much territory that is quite NDP-compatible(i.e. NDG), most of Westmount itself is totally unwinnable. The Conservatives impress nobody here.
    09 08 24 Observer
    Anne Lagace Dowson could not defeat the Liberal Party and bring this riding to the NDP. And if she failed, anyone is able to do so. Liberal stronghold.

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