Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-03-23 00:05:00

Constituency Profile


Braden, Dave

Ghaddar, Jamilé

Giles, Anthony

MacBain, Nancy

Ormond, Peter Michael

Sweet, David

David Sweet

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • ancaster-dundas-flamborough-aldershot (160/196 Polls)
  • hamilton-west (55/235 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 25 Nick
    Dave Braden has been knocking on doors in every area in ADFW. He is spending at least 4 hours a day talking to the riding. He is also at every event in the riding. He has been at retirement homes, BIA meetings. He has had the largest share of supporters at the every debate in the riding. I think Sweet is going to be very surprised. Dave has been gathering support from NDP and Green supporters (not sure about the M-L!). I have been on the phone and the number of NDP supporters who are turning to Dave are quite significant. Having Dianni stumping for Sweet will be a double edged sword. Larry finished 2nd in a mayoral race, 10% points behind the winner.
    11 04 25
    MIA!!! Where is everyone? They seem to be missing in action. The only one who actually knocked on my door this whole campaign is David Sweet. I expected that al least Braden would be knocking, trying to build up some momentum for his campaign. Are al the other candidates just marking time? I have talked to many friends and neighbours and they are telling me the same thing. I change my prediction from Sweet winning to Sweet wiping the others completely out of the picture. The conservative lead will increase by at least another 4-6 points. C'mon guys, you can't play the game if you don't show up. I was hoping that at least the Marxist -Leninist would show up; always fun to tweak those guys!!
    11 04 24 C.A.B.
    Sweet won by almost 20 points last time, which is actually a better margin than next door in Burlington. Part of this is because the NDP has a stronger base of voters here, and an upswing on their part in the polls will only further split the left-wing vote. Also, this seems to be a fairly low-priority seat for the Liberals: they lost their star candidate well before the election, and they've got more attractive targets elsewhere in Greater Hamilton. For those reasons, I predict the Tories will hold on here.
    11 04 23 JohnS
    Noted that Di Ianni is stumping for the Conservatives in this election. Why would Sweet take on someone with a checkered past? Seems that election fundraising violations and the peoples rejection of him haven't dampened Di Ianni's attraction to power.
    Sweet also has not demonstrated leadership in government. A few speeches and sitting on the committee looking into the treatment of Omar Khadr (with pathetic adherence to Canadian standard for Khadrs treatment at Gitmo).
    Furthermore, Sweet also voted for the budget bill which stripped Canadians not born in Canada from having their children automatically eligible to be registered as Canadians if born abroad. As the descendant of a WWI veteran, and someone whose rights have been so stripped, I find Sweets lack of willingness to adhere to Canadian principles of fairness to be abhorrent. Vote for him if you want, but you won't see him fighting for the ADFW riding. His interests are clearly those of the Conservative Party alone.
    11 04 22 Richard
    Dave Braden will do well in Dundas and Westdale. He will probably increase Liberal votes in Flamborough ... especially the eastern part.
    11 04 21 Fisher Guy
    The article in the Spec today from Mr. Ormond, shows how close the policies of the green party are to the conservatives. Mr. Sweet's letter in the Dundas Star today, definitely clears the air on the Electric Car issue. The second letter in the Dundas Star that talks about strategic voting to offset the big oil/business money clearly misses the point that Mr. Chretian law prevents these sort of donations from businesses. It might work better if Mr. Braden asked Mr. Ormond and Ms. MacBain to withdraw their names, so as not to confuse us at the polls. Although I think the ballots have already been printed.
    All in all it feels like Mr. Sweet on May 2nd.
    11 04 20 Stevo
    This riding simply follows the pattern as the rest of the 905 not in the immediate halo around Toronto. Ancaster is about as Tory-friendly as Flamborough. Dundas is a Liberal/Tory mix, and Westdale is a Liberal/NDP mix. Therefore on balance, the Conservatives will tend to have the upper hand here, and this election is no different.
    11 04 15 factscount
    Conservative candidates using key messages from party HQ. Sweet clearly lost the Dundas debate. He tries to take credit for new McMaster Innovation Park when it was Paul Martin government, with then local Liberal members who made it work, with the support of NDP David Christopher from Hamilton Centre, where the research park is located. Yes Sweet helped to get it to Hamilton, but after others made the policy decision. Sweet called for majority government for his party, but did not explain that the four elections in seven years, three were caused by his party ... 2004 election required at the end of previous Liberal government mandate and election of new party leader; 2006 Conservatives caused it by defeating Martin government; 2008 Conservatives call despite fix date legislation they crafted that still had two years to go; 2011 election engineered by Conservatives for undemocratic activity and failing to understand minority governments must have some flex and compromise. Facts are important in campaigns ...
    11 04 12 RL
    Here are some return comments about signs: Sweet's team had tons out in the first week of the campaign and those numbers have only grown since then. It's not likely that the the other parties will match them, even by the end.
    Second, the debate. Sweet held his own even amid raucous Liberal-supporter packed room.
    Since Sweet is at just about every event held in the riding week in and week out, people know him and like him and his efforts on behalf of the riding.
    On a national level, Harper will once again do well in the Leader's debate tonight. As a public speaker, he has only improved with time.
    As long as the Nation-wide polling tracks about the same, this riding stays Conservative. There just doesn't seem to be that much ground support for change in ADFW.
    11 04 11 NJSH
    First address comments about signs. Signs HAVE caught up in many areas. On Saturday, several polls had signs stolen. upwards of 25 signs in one area were taken.
    Second: Dave Braden nailed this evening's All Candidates debate in Dundas. When Sweet said ‘this was an election nobody wanted’ he was roundly booed. When he tried to tell us about the increase in Health Care transfers of 6%, Braden caught him out, saying yes, because that is the law. No discussion about Gun Registry or other divisive issues.
    Braden is gaining support. This is going to be interesting on May 2.
    11 04 09 SouthpawPundit
    +David Sweet, former Canadian head of the far-right Promise Keepers organization, may be a misogynistic and homophobic religious kook, but an electoral system that is as wretched as he is will ensure another Tory victory in this riding. That's rally too bad. Canadians deserve better than the likes of David Sweet, Cheryl Gallant, and Rob Anders running this country.
    Speaking of Anders, David Sweet reminds me of the notorious Nelson Mandela-bashing Calgary West MP in that he seems to get elected in spite of the fact that his own words are ample proof that he's a certified nut-job.How can you not ‘love’ such gems as ‘[A woman's] job is to submit to our teachers and our Professors...even if we know they are wrong. It is then in God's hands.’ or ‘Men are natural influencers, whether we like it or not. There's a particular reason why Jesus called men only. It's not that women aren't co-participators. It's because Jesus knew women would naturally follow.’
    That these people are not jeered everyday time they o
    11 04 07
    Well, I don't think David Sweet has anything to worry about if election signs are any indication. I Have seen 2 Braden signs vs, dozens of Sweet signs.
    Seriously though, Sweet works hard in his riding and attends many events. He is well known and well liked. Braden is viewed by many as an opportunist. I see no gain for the Libs here. In fact I wouldnt be surprised to see Sweet grow his vote base this time around, strictly to do with his appearances around the riding.
    11 04 05 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    The trend in Ontario is very clear: Liberals are eroding the CPC vote and consuming (devouring?) the NDP vote. Sweet will probably win but if this trend continues it will be much closer. Strategic voting will play a role. If the stars do align properly then we could see a Liberal upset. The stars have not thus yet aligned.
    11 04 04 Bryan
    even if every NDP voter from 2008 had voted Liberal, Sweet still would have won by over 1300 votes. given that it'd be a stretch for even 50% of NDP voters to rally around Braden, the Libs would have to increase their vote by over 6000 votes to top Sweet's 2008 total.
    Good luck... they'll need it :P
    11 04 02
    The word on the street is that many NDP voters will be rallying around Braden and the Liberals. This is going to be close.
    11 04 01 Bryan
    Nick, he may give a closer race than 2008, but Sweet will still win by over 5000 votes. the Colvin story is a year old and has no resonance with the electorate. I predict Sweet takes over 50% of the vote, barring major developments in teh national campaigns that change the picture in Ontario.
    11 04 01 Nick
    Dave Braden's concern with David Sweet was his allowing the Conservative Party to attack Richard Colvin unfettered. The Colvin family has lived in this riding for many years. Dave Braden has been making headway with women in the riding. I think Dave Braden will make up some ground and give Sweet a run for his money.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    While not a totally safe Conservative riding, considering the Tories had a 19 point lead last time around, it seems unlikely there would be that big a swing. The largely rural Flamborough should go easily Tory, the more suburban Ancaster seems to now be firmly in the Tory camp while Westdale is NDP and Dundas is a three way split.
    11 02 07 Bryan
    UPDATE: Braden won the nomination for the Libs. He then immediately bashed Sweet as a man who is only interested in power and who has no interest in his actual riding. This of course ignores the many who have flocked to support David from Braden's own party due to his omni-presence at community events over the past 5 years. In fact, the Liberal team complained last election that they are at such a disadvantage because David has been everywhere in the riding and reached almost every constituent since being elected. I'm tempted to increase my predicted margin, but I'll repeat that in this situation, Sweet holds by at least 5000 votes.
    11 01 15 Bryan
    As I'd predicted under my earlier post as ‘initial’ Dan Mclean gave up on his candidacy due to Iggy backing down. Now they have a choice between Anne Tennier of Maple Leaf Foods and Dave Braden of Hamilton Council fame. While Braden will have some name recognition (and former councillors often do well in this area) He will have most recognition in Sweet's strongest areas of support. He won't be able to bring back all of the former liberal supporters who have flocked to Sweet over the past 5 years. Tennier is supported by the same disastrous team that dropped the ball with Macfarlane-Vanderbeek last time. She is not going to appeal to the riding's demographics. I predict a diminished margin of victory if Braden wins the nomination, but still over 5000 votes. If Tennier takes the nomination, the margin will stay level or grow to 10000. Either way, Tory hold.
    10 07 18 R.O.
    It should be noted that Dan Maclean has for personal reasons stepped down as the liberal candidate for this riding a few weeks back . its one of a couple tory ridings in ontario on here where liberal candidates have left but are still listed as too close to call and maybe shouldn't be. as of now its unclear who will replace him as liberal candidate or what kind of race there would even be for that nomination . the hamilton area has been a difficult one for the liberals due to the significant conservative and ndp support in the area, anyways its becoming hard to believe the liberals actually won here in 2004 cause conservative David Sweet has done so well here since then.
    09 11 21 initial
    Sweet's 9000 vote margin from 2008 will shrink next time around, but he'll still win this riding by over 3000 votes. He has drawn support from both partisans and opponents alike by his constant presence at community events and support for local organizations. While Maclean brings name recognition to the table, he wasn't banking on waiting so long for an election. I'd be very surprised if he sticks around until next fall, which is the earliest we'll see another general election anyways. With the NDP not running Guyatt next time around, the Liberals will benefit from soft NDP support, but it won't be enough to overtake Sweet in this riding. CPC Hold.
    09 10 03 A.S.
    Keep in mind that Hamilton's propensity t/w ?media candidates? didn't help Bill Kelly vs Chris Charlton in H-Mountain in '06. Still, I can't help finding Sweet's nearly 20(!) point margin in '08 a bit of a nose-holding devil-you-know artifice thanks to extenuating incumbency/Harper-vs-Dion circumstances--if Ontario swings away from the Tories and/or t/w the Grits, the swing will be more marked in semi-urban/suburban '06-pickup/'08-hold seats like this. And all the more so given Sweet's Promise Keepers background--like, true, Redeemer University College is here, but so is McMaster. Now if next redistribution, Dundas/Westdale is sliced out, *then* I'm prepared to call this safe Tory. But not now, even if plummeting Iggy numbers give me reason to reconsider...
    09 10 03 RGM
    Looks like whenever anyone posts something positive about a Liberal candidate on this site, the Tory staffers in Ottawa jump on it right away. As far as comparing the pathetic showing of Sue Levy in the provincial by-election to Dan MacLean goes, Levy was running for the Provincial Tories in a downtown Toronto riding. Everyone knows the Tories are a fringe party in Toronto so running a hack columnist from the right wing rag Sun in an upscale Toronto riding is comparing apples and oranges. The Liberals hold this riding provincially and have been competitive here in the last couple elections. As far as Dan Maclean getting a raw deal from CHTV playing a role in this race goes, anyone who knows Hamilton knows the area has a chip on it's shoulder and has a soft spot for people who've been treated badly. I'll mention another former CHTV anchor Jennifer Mossop again. She was fired by CHTV which angered the people of Hamilton. The result, Mossop who never lived in Hamilton or Stoney Creek was nominated four days into the 2003 writ and not only beat a sitting cabinet minister, Brad Clark but received more votes than any other winner in the South Central region. Battling Bob Bratina, a radio host, is always among the top vote getters in muncipal elections. I think the Tory staffers are jumping on this race so hard because David Sweet, although better known since he was elected is seen as someone who will never be more than a faceless backbencher. Hamilton city council and the local media are quick to point out how little this down and out city has received in federal dollars in the last year. Sweet has not delivered for the City of Hamilton as a member of the government. This will be a close race but MacLean has the huge advantage of being well known in the area. More people know him than will ever know Sweet. For that reason, I see MacLean winning. Now back to Tory staffers who will fill up this site.
    09 10 02 JML
    What has the raw deal that Maclean got from CHTV have to do with him running as a candidate?! You over-estimate the sympathy that he is going to receive and again if that is the only way he will win, it just shows how much faith you have in your candidate to win on the issues and just proves he is a weak candidate. If your logic was sound, then Ken Dryden would be PM, due to his fantastic hockey career. How's that working out for you Liberals?
    09 10 02 R.O.
    This riding is considered to be a swing riding at the federal and provincial levels and an example of that fact is its conservative federal and liberal provincially , each currently being in power. so as of today the conservatives have the clear advantage here as they lead in ontario polls federally over the liberals. so any seat that they won in 2006 when they didn't have a lead over the liberals isn't likely to go anywhere. we must also but into account the fact David Sweet has been mp now for almost 4 years so he's much better known in the riding than he was back when he first ran in 2004. and i don't really buy into the concept of media candidates being more successful than average candidates as we just saw toronto sun journalist Sue Ann Levy run in a provincially by-election in toronto and she of course did not win, she got alot of press but didn't win the seat. so sometimes media friendly candidates can get alot of press but can be overrated at times if they lack actually political experience.
    09 09 28 RGM
    What the two previous Conservative posters failed to mention is that former media people do very well in Hamilton politics. Jennifer Mossop received more votes than any other Provincial Liberal in the region back in the 2003 provincial election. Bob Bertina on Hamilton City Council tops the polls every time. I could go on but it's a long list. The people of Hamilton feel like Dan Maclean got a raw deal being forced out of CHTV and will make things even when they elect him. David Sweet ran against a Liberal stiff last time and didn't do all that well compared to other Tories in this region. Up against a media star, Sweet, even with his loyal bible belt support won't hang on. Maclean wins by 1000 votes.
    09 09 08 Keep to the Right
    Dan MacLean is a talking head, a news reader, the Liberals have only elected a candidate with name recognition and years of face time on TV in an attempt to win a seat. Even though we must also recognize his endless dedication to the community, we need to acknowledge that Dan MacLean lacks depth and insight. For a person who has been very intimately involved in the community, he appears to lack an understanding of the Bigger Picture of Federal politics. He should run for City Counsel first, he would be more affective their. Michael Sweet at least was live and appeared in person at the Cactus Festival. Dan MacLean was only present in the form of a cardboard cut. No depth, means no political character.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    Sweet grew his total from '06, despite an overall drop in turnout. His nearly 11,000 vote lead is too much to overcome. Tory hold.
    11 04 28 Fisher Guy
    I'm not expecting the national trend to affect the ADFW, but it is nice to see the NDP doing better then the Liberals in many ridings. The call by the liberal supporters for the NDP and Green parties to give them their votes is irritating. Both the NDP and Green party have great candidates in ADFW and if anything the Liberals should recognize it over for them and support either the NDP or Green Party. No matter, I expect David Sweet will win by a landslide.

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