Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Kitchener Centre

Prediction Changed
2011-05-01 09:12:00

Constituency Profile


Corbiere, Mark

Redman, Karen

Rimmer, Alan

Suter, Martin

Thurley, Peter

Williston, Byron

Woodworth, Stephen

Stephen Woodworth

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • kitchener-centre (180/210 Polls)
  • kitchener-waterloo (31/264 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 01 MB
    I would still leave this in the TCTC category. While the Liberal numbers may be down province-wide, the Liberal vote is very concentrated in certain areas, and KW has generally been one of them. The 2 latest Nanos polls show the Libs. at 31% ad Tories at 36% in Ontario...not that huge of a gap and enough to let the Libs. take back KC if their vote is concentrated in ridings like this. One factor that may still help the Libs. here is voter participation...if it increases significantly, that may mean Libs. who stayed home last time will vote...and thus far, everything is pointing to the possibility of increased voter turn out. Also, Redman was a respected MP in the riding, and while she may not currently have the seat, her past service and visibility may produce something similar to an incumbent effect.
    11 04 29 All Over the Map
    The latest poll, from Ipsos, shows the Liberal vote collapsing in Ontario - 21% in latest poll! Even if that is less prevalent here due to the lack of history for the NDP, I can't really fathom them picking up any seats, strategic voting or not.
    11 04 26 Nick
    Latest Nanos poll has the Conservatives at nearly 50% in Ontario, with the Liberals below 30%. No matter how angry the Liberals are about their loss in 2008 and no matter how optimistic they may be, they will not regain any of the Kitchener ridings.
    11 04 25 rabbit
    calling for Liberal gain - 2008 result supposed to be due tolarge number Liberals staying home- admit seems from brief travels in riding- liberal and tory signs often equal except in some limited areas- old ward of Liberal candidate aforest of Lib signs may be closer than K/W seat since less university impact
    11 04 25 Gunther75
    Note to Bear&Ape: attendance record usually does not play a role UNLESS one of the parties (NDP in this case) raises the issue. Now, with Iggy's attendance an issue, others make political capital on it. Conservative incumbent kept a high profile, Liberal did not. Still TCTC.
    11 04 24 mini phreek
    for both Kitchener Centre and Kitchener-Waterloo, the Liberals should be able to take back these seats by at least the margin they lost them in 2008. not as many liberals will stay home this time.
    If I was to make my prediction based on the sign war (I don't) i'd say it was to close to call.
    11 04 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    That last conservative post was just propaganda and really doesn't add anything to the debate. With regards to a former MP's attendance record, absolutely no voter cares unless he or she is partisan in one way or another. People look at party platforms and the charisma of the candidates. Nobody is taking the time to see if Karen Redman was in attendance on such and such a date in 2005. Talk about grasping at straws.
    11 04 20 MH
    Karen Redman needed 340 more votes to keep this seat in 2008. It is hard to see how, with Ignatieff running a better campaign than Dion, Stephen Woodworth will manage to fend her off this year, especially because the ‘anybody but Harper’ factor will be important here. Kitchener-Centre will almost certainly go Liberal on May 2.
    11 04 20 Monterey
    Jack Layton's debate point about Ignatieff's dismal attendance in the House got me looking around. In Mrs. Redman's last year as an MP she was absent for 52 votes. In the past year Stephen Woodworth has been absent for 5. I think the electorate has to start reviewing which members actually have an interest in the job after being elected to it. Having been absent 10 times more often than Woodworth, I'm guessing Redman's interest had waned considerably. I'm hoping Kitchener Centre keeps the positive momentum going with a re-elect for Conservative.
    11 04 20 Stevo
    I think Karen Redman remains strong enough, and the Conservatives still sufficiently weak in Ontario, to re-take this for the Liberals. She was always a Witmer-style Progressive Conservative type to begin with. Watch for this to be a rare Liberal takeback this coming election, even as neighbouring Kitchener-Waterloo likely stays blue.
    11 04 19 MF
    While the polls do bounce around, it does seem that the Liberals are overall in better shape than they were in the 2008 election. So I'm going to predict that Karen Redman will overcome her 17 vote loss and re-take this.
    11 04 18 binriso
    Probably going to be a one time thing with the Conservatives losing by a slightly bigger margin than they won by in 2008. Should be a close one though.
    11 04 11 Mr. PM
    Not sure how much scandals do to swing votes, but in a riding that was this close who knows? Stephen Woodworth was caught on CPAC with a voter at the door who asked him some tough questions about shutting down parliament and being in contempt(Bev Oda). His response, ‘variety, it's the spice of life’! (Sing a long now...)
    As a follow up Woodworth was yanked from some local debates, and has also had his twitter account shut down. The thinking would be that he is now a liability and the Conservatives are in damage control mode. If this riding is close then it could tip the scales to the Liberals.
    Key question is, can Karen Redman get 5,000 of her supporters to get off the couch and vote?
    11 04 09 joey joe joe
    Nano's has a 5.7% margin of error for Ontario and shows Liberals up 9% so a minimum of 4% above their 2008 numbers. Other polls also reflect a increase of some degree over 2008 numbers in Ontario.
    11 04 09
    The Conservatives and Liberals are now tied(42/42% Nanos)in Ontario..Redman lost by a mere 339 votes last time and she is back,,the Liberal vote was down 5,573...this time the Liberals will show up to vote and she is going to win with a good margin
    11 04 08 R.O.
    I wouldn't predict this based on the nanos ontario polls , they have a higher margin of error than his national numbers and poll a very small number of ontario residents each day, only way to get an accurate number for this riding be a poll specifically for kitchener which i haven't seen yet. also angus reid and ipsos reid still have the tories leading in Ontario and ipsos was by a large margin just out today. Karen Redman is a strong candidate for the liberals but its certain conservatives focus a great deal of attention on holding close ridings . its also likely Stephen Woodworth do a bit better after 2 plus years as mp so liberals would not likely take back riding just with 08 voters.
    11 04 08 joey joe joe
    Sorry can't see the Conservatives keeping this one if the Liberals are up even 1-2% in Ontario vs. their last showing. Same for Kitchener Waterloo.
    Cambridge is safe for them.
    11 04 05 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    M. Lunn is bang on in his ascertations. Well guess what, the daily Nanos polls have the Liberals ahead of the CPC with a clear, steady upward trend for the Grits, a steady downward trend for the NDP and a not so steady downward trend for the CPC. It's not in the bag for the Grits and Karen better be pounding the pavement day and night if she wants it back.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    Last election, many of us were surprised when the Tories pulled off a win here. However, with only 36% and the fact many Green and NDP voters will probably go Liberal this time around, the Tories realistically need to get over 40% if they want to hold this. The Tories usually get above 3-4% below what they get in Ontario as a whole so they need to polling at least 43% province wide if they want to hold this. Even with the strong polls for the Tories now in Ontario, they would just barely scrape by so if the Liberals make any gains in Ontario even if minor they will regain this. I could even see the Liberals retaking both the Kitchener ridings while losing some in the 905 belt to the Tories.
    11 04 01 Flatland Man
    I think this was a surprise win for the CPC last go, I would expect Karen Redman and the previously mentioned stay at home Liberals to show up this go around. While the Liberals might lose a few more suburban GTA ridings I would be shocked if the Liberals do not win one or two ridings in Kitchener. I would tag this as a slight Liberal lead come election day but it is hard to say the polls have not really shown a whole lot of change in Ontario since the last election but we will no closer to May 2.
    11 03 31 RB
    People in Kitchener Centre who voted for Oz Cole-Arnal (NDP) last election got burned when Woodworth (CPC) took the seat from Karen Redman (Lib) in a squeaker. Although Peter Thurley (NDP) is completely likable, I see many more centrist NDP supporters throwing their lot in with Redman to try and avoid a Harper majority.
    10 02 13 R.O.
    Well this one remains as obvious liberal target and Karen Redman no doubt wants her old seat back the problem for the liberals is that Stephen Woodworth hasn't really done anything wrong. and in fact delivered a fair bit of federal funding for the riding and been active in the riding as mp. some of the local projects that got funding included the downtown Kitchener revitalization project , local affordable housing projects and local hospitals . so i don't know but i feel this riding is going to be alot closer than the liberals want to admit and Stephen Woodworth isn't doing that bad a job so he won't be easy to beat. so this one may be too close to call for a while until the future election becomes more clear as to what is going to happen. one other thing that should be noted here as that turnout in this riding specifically is lower than other ontario ridings so there is alot of voters in the riding who have not voted much recently and could help out either of the main parties here if they were able to land some of them and manage to do the impossible and actually get them voting.
    09 01 04 A.S.
    Long a belwether swing seat, Kitchener Centre's gotten more Liberal-tilting as it's gotten more ‘central’ (and the Tories more ‘hostile-to-central’)--sure, it went CPC in '08, but it was by a collateral-pickup hair, and the fact of Karen Redman running again only reinforces the notion of this being a ‘natural’ one-election fluke. Of course, things don't always work out that way. Though I was correct in deeming this an under-40-percenter race for '08, and it may be more likely than not this time as well...
    09 09 28 Swift
    In the last two elections the Conservative candidates and campaign teams simply outworked the Liberals. Even outworking them barely got a win in 2008 for the Tories. Karen retains her personal popularity and reputation for good work in the riding. A strong ground campaign can win this one back.
    09 09 02 R.O.
    The 08 numbers here do tell an interesting story and it appears the conservative vote didn't grow but rather the liberal vote got smaller but either way a future vote here is a totally different race. as Stephen Woodworth is going to be campaigning as the incumbent next time representing an incumbent government. where is longtime liberal mp Karen Redman is in opposition now and hasn't even been mp for almost a year now. so the dynamics here have totally changed i feel and it be silly to assume it was going to be an easy liberal win considering the seat has been held by the conservatives for a year now. but for the time being it be fair to say the riding was too close to call.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    This riding was way too close in '08 to make a prediction at this point. It is apparent that the Libs did stay home, but it's still too soon to call it here.
    09 08 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    We were surprised with a number of Ontario ridings going either NDP or Con in 2008 and this is one of them. Once we looked at the numbers it was obvious, Liberal supporters stayed home in 2008. The CPC did not actually win over the Liberal voters, they just convinced them not to vote. Not likely going to work twice. So the CPC will need to put a lot of resources in keeping their recent gains (this riding, Kitchener-Waterloo, London West, etc) and actually convince Liberal voters that they are the better choice. The Liberals just need to get the vote out. It will be a battle but at the moment we can't see the CPC keeping this riding.

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