Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

London North Centre

Prediction Changed
2009-09-03 16:34:00

Constituency Profile


Gutierrez, German

Hodge, Mary Ann

Pearson, Glen

Truppe, Susan

Valastro, AnnaMaria

Glen Pearson

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • london-north-centre (240/240 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 27 JJ
    I was given that information from the London Free Press. If you want to accuse a newspaper of misinformation, go ahead. Anyways, I think this is going to be an easy win for Glen Pearson. He's got too many connections and too much influence to lose.
    11 04 26 B.O.
    JJ, if people in the riding are being told that Glen Pearson has the lowest attendance record in the House of Commons for all MPs in Southern Ontario, they are being told misinformation. I have done a calculation and for the 40th Parliament and found that Glen Pearson voted in 85% of recorded divisions. That is far from the lowest in Southern Ontario. For example, Gerard Kennedy, also representing a riding in Southern Ontario, voted in 66% of the votes in the House of Commons. I frequently watch votes in parliament on TV and Glen Pearson is almost always there. As for this riding, it is likely Liberal but we won't know for sure until about a week from now.
    11 04 23 Cory Martin
    RJL-In response to your entry about how Glen Pearson is not around in this election is quite interesting. How about Susan? She hasen't been to any of the debates, Glen has, Glen has been going door to door in the riding and getting very positive feed back from the people he meets. So read up on someone before making false staements.
    11 04 22 RJL
    The Cons have been very active, the Libreals??? anyone out there? Interesting over all no Con advertising yet. Local Liberal Candidate appears to be running on his past work with Food Bank. And when interviewed he says he doesn't like negative advertising and yet slams Harper but ignores his parties negative ads. I think people will notice Glen is missing in this campaign.
    11 04 21 DM
    Susan Truppe is skipping all of the all-candidates meetings -- she's just about invisible. At Tuesday's meeting, it was basically a friendly meeting of the 4 other candidates, but it was clear that Pearson was the likely front runner.
    11 04 21 Gone Fishing
    Glen Pearson is running the quietest campaign of any incumbent in the four city ridings. His signs look old and probably are from last election and you have to look hard to find them outside the main thoroughfares.
    Truppe is all over the place and when you turn off the major roads and onto the residential streets you see a lot of signs on lawns. Now I know the lawns can't vote but the people who mow them do. It's not a lock for the Conservatives I'm just saying calling this a safe seat given Nanos is NOT showing a surge for the Liberals here or anywhere else just has me thinking it could be a surprise in the making and the riding is not traditionally liberal as some would say. During the Chretien years a monkey could have run for the Liberal party and win. But London West was also once such a Red riding under Barnes and it is no more.
    11 04 18 JJ
    I wouldn't embellish Glen Pearson's prestige in this riding. Quite a number of people I have met are upset that he has one of the lowest attendance rates in the House of Commons and the worst attendance rate among all MPs from Southern Ontario.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    When the Tories had a 10-15 point lead in Ontario, an upset seemed possible but at this point they may come close but not enough to win here. Never mind, those on the left hate Harper even more than in 2008 so even if the Tories get the 39% the Liberals did last time around, that won't be enough to claim this as enough NDP votes will swing over to the Liberals to ensure they hold this.
    11 04 16 Nysuloem
    Glen Pearson is one of the most well-respected MPs in this country, and will likely take this seat, but I think it will be a very close race with the Conservative candidate, who seems to have a considerable amount of support in this riding. This is the kind of seat that, if the Conservatives win it, it will suggest that they are on their way to a majority government.
    11 04 09 Tony Ducey
    Holder beat an incumbent here in 2008, he wins the seat again in 2011 against a first time candidate.
    11 04 05 Flatland Man
    The recent scandals for the Liberals in London over the Harper rally facebook screenings cannot help the CPC here. London seems to be swinging to the Liberals and the running Nanos poll released today correlates to this. I think Liberals have to be breathing easier at this point.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    Unlike London-Fanshawe which is left leaning and more your working class area and London West which is right leaning and more you affluent area this riding is in between thus favouring the Liberals. The main disadvantage they face is the students will have gone home. On the other hand there is little chance of the Tories getting above 40% here so if they can pick up enough of the NDP support they should be fine. This is the Liberals to lose, but still too early to definitively call this for them.
    11 04 02 prognosticator15
    This riding has seen very few changes since the last election in 2008. All signs are it will be kept by the Liberal incumbent.
    First, many residential areas, including upper-class areas are dominated by the University-connected residents who tend to vote Liberal as the Liberal Party is the one traditionally offering most generous perks and taxpayer resources to this constituency (the fact both current, Ignatieff and previous, Dion national party leader are ideologically rigid globalist big government spenders with social science academic background is not coincidental). This University constituency, in sections highly ideological and anti-conservative, just like the Liberal leader, is now under more serious threat of spending cuts than last time, and is likely to rally behind a Liberal, even where the actual difference a federal candidate makes is minimal. And this growing constituency is highly influential, possibly even the most important in the riding, in contrast to any other London riding.
    Second, the CPC candidate is politically weak, the weakest in London area, has no name recognition in the community, and relies on party organization in a city where many Conservatives are much more enthusiastic campaigning in two other city ridings due to the fact she is too much of a Red Tory for many. I strongly suspect she may have serious difficulties even turning the Conservative base out to vote to the same extent as last time when a much stronger, recognizable and ideologically acceptable city councillor, Paul van Meerbergen still failed to win even after a very strong campaign. Being articulate and putting signs around is not enough, many colorful and better known Tories in previous elections failed here.
    Third, the incumbent has no strong challenge from the left. Outside of some sections within teaching profession and students (who, by the way, can vote in an advance poll and thus are unlikely to decrease in numbers), the NDP support in the riding is minimal. The ethnic vote is solidly Liberal here, by tradition in the riding and because of the candidate outreach and strong Liberal machine.
    The only hope I can see for the CPC candidate to rise above traditional second place is in Liberal incumbent's arrogance: there is no need for me to start campaigning early, Pearson declared on the day election was called, I am a well recognizable name in the riding, and unlike others I do not need to wave electoral signage in front of voters. Perhaps, it is a mistake to make such statements, but then he has very good reasons to think his win is certain: being probably the strongest Liberal in southwestern Ontario, the fact some voters start to like him less because of growing arrogance (perhaps??) is not enough to defeat this 'minor celebrity' (as someone said below) with a well organized campaign.
    A Liberal hold.
    11 03 30 G Brown
    The election will take place after the final exams for Western students. Many of them will have returned home which could help the Conservatives.
    11 03 28 Lawrence R Meadows
    Susan Truppe is out early with the signs. In my neighbourhood today. There is a chance or a long shot as Glen Pearson is sort of laid back, and if she knocks on doors she has a chance. Very well spoken
    11 03 28 Initial
    This will be an easy win for Glen Pearson. He won't win by a majority but the Conservatives in this riding are too disorganized and inactive to mount a successful campaign against a minor celebrity like him. Demographically, this riding is quite a mix with a university, affluent urban center, upper middle-class suburbs and some working class neighbourhoods. Factors that may affect voting outcome include how many students will vote (the Western vote is largely left-wing), how many seniors come out (there are several retirement and old age homes in this riding), and how mobilized the traditional liberal voters are. These factors may undermine my prediction but I predict a strong finish for Glen Pearson.
    11 03 27 In the know
    Glen is respected and reflects the values of this riding. The Conservative candidate had billboards up before the election. Not sure if that is legal but even if it is, it shows a disrespect for the process.
    11 03 26 Cory
    I just moved to London and live in this riding and have seen how this riding has voted the last few elections I don't see this one changing hands. Liberal hold here.
    11 03 23 LondonMike
    It would take a complete crash in Liberal support for Glen Pearson to lose this riding. He's personally popular, and respected on Parliament Hill. I live in this riding, and he's earned re-election. I normally don't even vote Liberal either.
    09 12 16 Mohammed
    The CPC picked Susan Truppe a virtual unknown for this riding. I expect Glen to increase his share of votes next election. This is definitely a safe Liberal riding.
    09 11 07 A.S.
    Strange how the two remaining SW Ontario Liberals were each the byproduct of post-2006 byelections/near-byelections--and in Glen Pearson's case, he might have been the rare Grit to actually be *saved* by his close associations w/Stephane Dion. (Together with a St Paul-esque perfect split-opposition storm.) Nowadays, it's not farfetched to anticipate he'll be saved simply by surviving 2008--or at least, the Grit ground crew will aggressively go to bat for him the way the NDP ground crew did for Irene Mathyssen in '08. Speaking of the NDP, it's worth noting how their curious LNC pattern of poll efficiency continued: even though their share sunk to 17.5% vs CPC's 33% (and Pearson's 39%), they *still* won more polls than the Tories!
    09 09 27 Gone Fishing
    Glen Pearson is held out as invincible but the truth may be somewhat less than that.
    He is a well liked MP in Ottawa and works with all people. That is true to the extent partisan politics allows it.
    He is indeed considered a hard working person, and is trusted for his work with London food bank, the needy in Africa and so on. Impossible to put a chink in him on this front.
    However, to say he is a shoe in lacks recognition that he has only won once in a general election. He lost a general election a year or so previously when he contested London Fanshawe, beat out by Irene Mattheyson of the NDP.
    Glen went to Ottawa as a bye election win from an ill fated decision by Liberal Joe Fontana to try to take a run at London's mayoral race. This was not the only flop that was part of the story - London's former mayor Dianne Haskett parachuted in for the CPC (I know it must be hard for you readers to believe a local mayor as a parachute candidate - but it's true).
    With these two dead fish flopping on shore there was no decision by local voters to support the governing Tories or the Opposition Liberals. Rather the choice came down to supporting a decent man or being known as the place that put Liz May into parliament.
    Even then the choice was not a landslide and Glen won out.
    Glen too was a parachute candidate he doesn't live in the riding. I doubt that will hurt him but it won't play well if the Conservatives can mount a credible candidate.
    It's just too early to call this one for anyone else. If Ignatieff gains some traction and If Pearson runs which I am certain he will, he will win. However, GP is vulnerable to distaste for the liberal party if that spreads. His comments about the responsibility for an election being in the hands of the NDP earlier this month smacks of the type of partisan pettiness that people think he is above. If Liberal fortunes sag than his could as well.
    09 09 13 GM
    The previous submission by JJ may be correct suggesting that this seat is now vulnerable for the Liberals - but at this time I would still suggest that it is (for the most part) a ?Liberal-to-lose? riding. Until we know how the following factors will play out, it is definitely too early to call a win for a party other than the Liberals. It's probably also a little early to claim this riding as ?too close to call? - but it might be heading in that direction.
    Factor 1 - Pearson has managed to maintain a stellar reputation for being an effective MP. He was written up in McLean's for being perhaps the most widely respected MP in Ottawa, even garnering respect across party lines. Further, in the last few months, there have been articles in the local media indicating how Pearson has worked with both Ed Holder (Con. London West) and Peter MacKay on issues requiring non-partisan cooperation. Unless other factors overshadow this first point, Pearson's status as a well-respected incumbent could be the clincher.
    Factor 2 - If there is enough backlash from the electorate over calling an unwanted election, the party getting most of the blame for initiating the vote becomes an issue. At this time, it appears as though the Liberals will take the brunt of the fallout over this - as indicated by their recent slip in the polls. If this overshadows the first factor, Pearson will have a harder time holding the seat. The strength of the backlash will be the deciding point - it would probably have to be the main thought in people's minds as they head to the polls for Pearson to lose.
    Factor 3 - In relation to factor two, if there is moderate backlash combined with a high-profile opposing candidate (especially a Conservative one), Pearson could find himself losing this one. With only a 6% margin of victory in the last election, there's a good chance the Conservatives will push for this seat. If the NDP put up a strong candidate as well, the resulting left-wing vote split could really benefit the Conservatives.
    Factor 4 - The economy seems to be rebounding a bit, but that is coupled with recent revelations about the deficit being worse than thought and Kevin Page reporting that the Conservatives over-estimated the cost of expanding EI as the Liberals wanted. The reality is that Canada's economy was one of the better in the developed world going in to the recession, and natural recovery processes are likely the main reason for the recent improvement. This issue will come down to the campaigns - the Conservaties need to sell themselves as getting us out of the recession - the opposition need to say that recovery is somewhat natural, and continually point to Conservative mistakes regarding deficit estimates. If the Conservatives win this debate, it will make things harder for Pearson.
    Factor 5 - In terms of voter opinion of the national leaders, this is currently way too close to call. I will wait to see what happens after Harper and Ignatieff square off face-to-face during the debates. A clear win by either of them could be enough to sway this riding.
    Factor 6 - This riding could also come down to the campaign in itself - and, sadly, it will require careful negative/attack ads. The personal ones (Ignatieff just visiting) or (Harper control freak) probably won't work. The Liberals need to attack the Conservatives on mistakes such as underestimating the deficit, the medical isotope controversy and the recent passport fiascos. The Conservatives need to effectively claim that the Liberals either have no platform (they haven't released an major policy stance to this point) or claim that their ideas will make things worse. Considering the recent U.S. election, if either side plays out a ?perfect? campaign (as many claim Obama did), that could go a long way to influencing this riding.
    Factor 7 - If the NDP runs a really strong national campaign and that results in a boost in support for the NDP candidate in this riding, there could be enough left-wing vote split to result in Liberal loss.
    Factor 8 - Quebec polls in the days leading up to the election could influence those who vote along party rather than candidate lines. If it seems as though the Liberals will regain the majority of federalist seats in Quebec, that could help the Liberals win the election (albeit another minority most likely). If a lot of people vote with the intention of having an MP in government rather than opposition, the opinion of national trends could influence the results in this riding.
    Overall, when considering factors 2-8, if two or three of those clearly go against the Liberals, Pearson's got a good fight on his hands - but his status as incumbent and personal reputation might be enough for him to hold the seat. If four or five go against the Liberals, Pearson would be in serious trouble, and the riding would definitely become too close to call. More than five, and I don't see how he could hold the seat.
    09 09 01 JJ
    This seat is vulnerable for the Liberals as they only won by a 6% margin of victory in 2008 as opposed to strong showing in previous elections. Glen Pearson may manage to hang on, but it will be close.

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