Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Mississauga-Brampton South

Prediction Changed
2009-08-25 16:11:00

Constituency Profile


Adams, Eve

Bains, Navdeep

Glavan, Jim

Stone, Benjamin Jonathon

Sullivan, Tim

Hon. Navdeep Bains

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • brampton-west-mississauga (58/196 Polls)
  • mississauga-centre (24/193 Polls)
  • mississauga-east (52/189 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 26 Joe
    Eve Adams is a great candidate, but they put her in a tough spot against Navdeep Bains. Navdeep has the respect of his constituents (of all races) and has better organization than Eve. It's truly unfortunate for Ms. Adams because she has the potential to be a star candidate for the Conservatives, but here's hoping she runs provincially and kicks out Amrit Mangat.
    Navdeep Bains wins comfortably.
    11 04 22
    The Conservative party is banking on Eve Adams based on a number of theories. Some of these have been successfully applied in other provinces and by right wing parties in other countries.
    -Eve Adams is well know in a part of this riding having been a Mississauga city councillor for a number of years.
    -Conservatives have consistently polled around the mid 30's or above(leading or neck and neck in the 905 as in 2008) throughout the campaign. Also, the next government at this point seems to be another Harper minority.
    -Eve Adams has increased her vote share in each civic election although only 30% of the electorate votes in civic elections.
    -They are not going after the South Asian or Muslim votes as Bains wins those overwhelmingly. Instead they are going after the White/Euro, East Asian and culturally christian votes. They have employed this strategy in the 2008 election in Bramalea Gore Malton against Malhi, where Stella Ambler(now the cpc candidate running against Szabo in Mississauga south) reduced the margin of Malhi's victory to the closest since he was elected(keep in mind that South Asians are a larger % of BGM). At one point Ambler campaign was openly saying that they will win without the SA vote. In the end she didnot come close but was successful in raising the cpc vote total considerably despite being almost unkown.
    -The excitement among cpc supporters about Eve Adams stems from the fact that she is a young photogenic blonde female with local name recognition runing against a very ethnic(sound familiar?) turban wearing Liberal in a suburban riding and that a certain number of non south asian or muslim voters will be swayed by that.
    -Polls are all over the place but the NDP vote did surge for a while in Ontario(still high in QC) but has come down a little bit below the 2008 levels. There is a perception in the CPC that vote splitiing or liberal vote supression due to bad press might help them narrow the gap in many ridings.
    There are a number of reasons why that might not work.........
    -Her ward represents under 25% of the riding's pop. Most of the area between Dixie and Fletchers creek is Industrial while the same is true of the area between the 407 and Matheson or upto Eglinton in the south eastern corner.
    -City elections at least in Peel are largely not fought on party lines. Eventhough some peculiar things that Adams did like getting federal stimulus funding for a Church in Malton(represents a good chunk of her ward but not a part of this riding) over parks and the arena that got largely unnoticed did give some clue about her political leanings but most of the ward is away from there and none of her opponents were even running to win.
    -Southern part of the riding has condos and high density. Also, there is a large young population there; demographics not naturally inclined to vote Conservative and Adams doesnot represent the area either. Adams is almost unkown in the Brampton part of the riding which also has a large South Asian pop. Bains increased his margin of victory after he voted for gay marraige not at all a factor among south asians as some non-SA's or cpc supporters might suggest(cpc riding execs in Peel at the time did try to make it an issue and some media outlets were taken for a ride). Bains to his credit handled it very well. Same with other social issues where he is very socially Liberal and is in sync with the whiter and younger parts of this riding unlike the tories(the party as a whole is percieved to be dominated by socon groups). In that regard cpc is beating a dead horse(or the horse that never existed)
    -A number of tory scandals and campaign heavy handedness in Guelph and London have made many people uneasy about switching their vote.
    -Dion's carbon tax and his lack of English skills did make many Lib voters stay away from the polls(or the perception that Bains would win easily). This time with Adams in the fray some of the progressive voters and people who have voted Liberal in the past but stayed home last time will definitely galvanise around Bains.
    In the end the thing that matters the most is who comes out to vote on election day. CPC's hopes rest on Adams and the factors discussed earlier that might work in her favour but there are so many unkown factors that affect political campaigns. Bains's chances of getting re-elected could be more realistic based on the points above but this election is not going to be a peice of cake(provided things stay where they are in the campaign until May 2) for him. He can't take anything for granted.
    11 04 19 Jeff Chao
    It seems like the Conservative Candidate Eve Adams has picked up her game and I see more lawn signs then Bain. This is going to be a close one but from what I have heard from my coworkers in the riding. Eve is going to take this home. On the issue of her becoming a backbencher, the fact is won't win this time around and Eve has great experience running a city, I think she will become Minister Adams if she is elected.
    11 04 17 Paul
    Bains should be able to hold onto this riding with about 1000 votes. The conservative candidate has experience and is a woman but I think people in this riding are scared that a conservative majority could happen, which risk healthcare in favour of prisons and defense.
    Bains is also popular and the whole gay marriage thing has mostly blown over. He also is Canadian-born and can speak amazing English and his French is coming along nicely. I think all mississauga-Brampton south voters agree that Bains will probably become a minister if the liberals somehow form a gov't. Adams, on the other hand, will have to pay her dues for at least a few years and will be just another backbencher and I think voters are very concerned of that.
    11 04 12 R.O.
    Eve Adams is an ideal candidate for any political party , a young women with existing political experience on city council who recently won re-election easily. although Mississauga Brampton South has been a tough riding for the tories but they have been improving a bit here in recent elections . she'll make race more interesting and likely tory numbers continue to grow here. but not really sure if the appeal of individual candidate can make up the 14 point gap from 08 numbers in a traditional liberal seat , its tough to say and depends on how rest of campaign plays out.
    11 04 11 MBS
    Very strong Liberal riding, but very strong Con Candidate Eve Adams. She makes this race very competitive and will give Bains a run for his Money. Watch out for this riding, it will likely swing due to Adams popularity, and the anger against Navdeep Bains due to his voting record on Same Sex Marriage with his community.
    11 04 09 Top Can Inc.
    I just spent the day putting up signs for Eve Adams' campaign. A number of homes I went to had a Navdeep Bains sign on it already. This may be a naturally Liberal riding, but Eve Adams is the strongest candidate the Tories have put up here thus far. Watch out for this one on May 2
    11 04 09 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Liberal keep. True the CPC have made inroads with new Canadians however the whole issue about immigrent's parents having to wait to come to Canada is really not sitting well with many. True that the priority for most new canadians is the economy but having parents close by is an economic factor (take care of the childern while they go to work). True that Eve Adams makes this race interesting, however add the above information with the anti-Conservative vote solidly crystalizing around the Liberals in Ontario (as polls clearly show) and this will be a Liberal hold.
    11 04 06 Tony Ducey
    I'd like to see this riding go CPC I really would but in 2008 Gloria Kovach, the councillor from Guelph, was supposed to win that riding, she did not. It's Missisauga and I have Bains winning here. Eve Adams makes it interesting though.
    11 04 02 Not Non-Partisan
    Eve Adams is a tremendously attractive candidate for the Tories. Demonstrated electability, high name recognition, obviously photogenic, facing a less than front-bench Liberal. This and Mississauga Streetsville will be the races to watch in Peel. Both are likely Tory gains.
    11 03 29
    I agree that the entrance of Eve Adams makes this an interesting race. Polls are showing the Conservatives have a strong lead in Ontario. The Tories are doing remarkably well among visible minority voters, and in a riding that is 60% immigrant, this should bode well for Adams. Remember, the margin of victory was only around 15%. A solid turnout for the Conservatives and a swing of around 6-7% from the Liberals will equate to a win.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    Although the Tories have cut into the Liberal margins, this is still pretty strongly Liberal and even with their wooing of ethnic voters, it at best will cut the Liberal margins, but either way this stays Liberal. The question is whether it is a narrow win or a massive win or something in between.
    11 03 27 Glassfull
    Eve Adams joining this race will definitely change things. She is a very popular city councilor whose ward overlaps with this riding. She recently won her council seat for the third time, buy a large plurality. If she can mobilize those voters for her federal run, she should be able to squeak by Bains.
    11 03 23 Johnny Quest
    Eve Adams will win this for Cons. Great team and great connections due to her being a councillor
    09 11 04 A.S.
    Navdeep Bains remains the embodiment of the ethnoburban/cosmopolitan future of the Liberal Party; but the fact that he sunk beneath 50% and below a 15% margin over the Tories hints at potential Iggybomb vulnerability--especially if Harper himself is striking an ethnoburban chord within the GTA (will the Ruby Dhalla stink spill southward?). Not enough for me to withdraw a Liberal call, though--for the Liberals to lose Bains would involve a major-league electoral catastrophe...
    09 08 23 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Even with a drop of over 6000 votes cast in 2008 vs 2006, the Liberals still had a clear vicotry. The NDP had no change in the votes, Greens gained a 1000, CPC lost 1000 and the Liberals lost over 6000...yet still cleared the CPC by over 6500 votes and 14.7 percentage points. No one with any objectivity would think this is going to change in the next election unless something big happens.

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