Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-26 14:08:00

Constituency Profile


Cowling, John

DeVries, Irma N

McTavish, Bob

Papenburg, Ellen

Schellenberger, Gary

Gary Schellenberger

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • dufferin-peel-wellington-grey (16/203 Polls)
  • perth-middlesex (157/204 Polls)
  • waterloo-wellington (41/203 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 28 Initial
    I have to agree that this seat is no longer safe for the Conservatives. There was a long lineup at the advance polls on Saturday as well. I was driving all around Stratford over the weekend and saw less than five Schellenberger signs, while McTavish signs were everywhere. Also, McTavish is well known in rural Perth County from his MANY years serving on municipal council. I don't know if it will be enough to flip this seat, but if I were Gary I don't think I'd be resting easy this week.
    11 04 27 G. Richardson
    I went to vote on April 22nd (Good Friday) as soon as the Advance Poll opened and was confronted with a long line-up. This is the first time I have seen this in the riding.
    I am not sure what is happening here but historically a high voter turnout does not favour the incumbent MP.
    11 04 23 Mark in the forest
    I do have to wonder about calling the candidates other than Conservative Schellenberger nobodies. Mr. Schellenberger has not distinguished himself as a constituency politician. His line is that he is just a backbencher and can't do much for the riding as a result.
    11 04 22 Felix The House Cat
    Gary Schellenberger will be tough to beat, he is a good candidate in a field of nobody's! Solid Conservative win!
    11 04 14 Adam
    This riding will remain Conservative. Schellenberger will likely win easily, probably by a margin of 10,000 or so. Age will play a big role in deterring people from voting for Bob McTavish. The Liberals should have looked at putting someone in place to run to gain name recognition for the next election, especially since it is unlikely that Schellenberger will run for another term. Gary's contribution in the riding is almost as abysmal as it is in the House of Commons. Liberals should exploit his lack of contribution in the House and at home. There are Liberals in Perth-Wellington, John Wilkinson is a testament of that, they just have to find them.
    11 04 12 Mark in the Forest
    Here in the north end of the riding, the only canvassers that have been by are the Conservatives, putting out pamphlets that tout Schellenberger did a charity walk in 1996 from his home town of Sebringville to Tobermory. Is that the best they can do for his contribution to our area? At this point, it is his race to loose. As for his popularity, I have to wonder about that. He is not a ‘retail’ politician--I have never seen him at a community event or supper or program in this area in the year I have lived here.
    11 04 09 Tony Ducey
    Schellenberger won this as a PC before the right was united, he keeps the seat as part of a united right.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    Stratford may be competitive due to the fact it is an artsy town, but the rest of the riding is solidly Conservative and whatever weakness they have in Stratford, they can easily make up for it in the rest of the riding where 2/3 of the population lives. In fact Gary Schellenberger won every poll outside of Stratford last election and got above 50% in every municipality asides from Stratford (where he only got 33%).
    11 03 28 C.A.B.
    This seat and Elgin-Middlesex-London are mirror images of each other: each elected an MP from the PC wing of the party who won by a comfortable margin in 2004, but has made only incremental gains since, hampered by the leftish tendencies of the riding's largest city (Stratford, in this case). It was even a photo finish in 2008: Both candidates got about 48% of the vote with a 25-point margin over the second-place Liberal. For the record, Schellenberger didn't do quite so well as Preston, despite his longer electoral history. And given the nature of Stratford, it's more probable that he'll face an opponent who can consolidate the vote against him. Though certainly, neither is likely to face defeat.
    11 02 01 Gladstone
    Barring catastrophe for Harper, this will be a Tory hold. Schellenberger is personally popular and he benefits from a healthy number of ever-bluer rural southwestern Ontarians. The transplanted Torontonians in Stratford are a factor, to be sure, but they're at most fewer than 10,000 votes. It's not unwinnable for the Liberals, provided they have a strong enough candidate--look at John Wilkinson. But unless Wilkinson pulls a Fonseca, it doesn't look like one of them will be offering any time soon.
    09 11 30 A.S.
    An odd duck of a safe SW-Ontario-heartland safe Tory seat, and not just because Schellenberger first came to Parliament Hill via 2003 byelection--and as a Progressive Conservative, yet (the last ever PC MP to be elected!). Blame it all on the node that is Stratford, and the RiverdaleAnnex-transposition artsy-lefty Shakespearean symbolism thereof. Though an interesting note about 2008 is that a certain RiverdaleAnnex pattern was echoed in Stratford proper: a cultural-class Green Shift from NDP to Liberal. But it was no match for everything else in the seat just growing Toryer and Toryer--though the persistent Stratford factor's still left the 50% mark out of reach...
    09 08 25 wyatt
    Tory hold here. 10,000 vote lead should keep this in the blue column.

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