Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Pickering-Scarborough East

Prediction Changed
2009-09-03 16:34:00

Constituency Profile


Chisu, Corneliu

McTeague, Dan

Moffat, Andrea

Smith, Kevin

Hon. Dan McTeague

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • pickering-ajax-uxbridge (90/200 Polls)
  • scarborough-east (75/194 Polls)
  • scarborough-rouge-river (3/174 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 27 R.O.
    Dan Mcteague likely to hold his seat but its not within realm of possibility that he be one of last liberals left in 905 if liberals really at 25 % in Ontario that is less than what dion got. anyways this riding is a mix of urban Pickering and Scarborough and favours the liberals . conservatives got 30 % here in 08 so even a 10 % increase not be enough to swing the riding and Dan Mcteague seems to remain more personally popular than his party in this riding.
    11 04 22 Chris E
    I smiled on my way home from work the day after the writ was dropped (I work I. A church so Sunday is a work day for me..), and there were already Dan McTeague signs up along Sheppard Ave. It took days for Chisu to catch up and even then, there was no Competition. Out of maybe 40 lawn signs along that stretch of Sheppard Ave that I use to drive home, maybe 3 are Chisu, 1 for NDP, and the rest for McTeague. It's like those people just kept their signs from last election cause McTeague seems to have different kinds of signs..
    Anyway, aside from lawn signs, I can at least speak to this for the Scarborough side of this riding... They re-elected Ron Moeser in Ward 44 last municipal election, despite the conservative rave brought about by Rob Ford... This tells you one of two things (or heck, maybe both).. They prefer the incumbent and/or, they are centre-left, which is the kind of campaign the Liberals are running...
    Finally, McTeague won by about 8000 votes last election.. and I don't see yet another throw-away CPC candidate making a difference.
    11 04 20 Spot the Wonder Dog
    @Election Watcher: How can people ‘check Chisu out’ when both he and his neighbouring Conservative candidate in Ajax-Pickering couldn't attend a lunch hour debate at Dunbarton High School? Seriously, could either of them meet with 160 voters in under two hours somewhere else??? Or, are they just afraid of youth voters like their comrades in Guelph??? And just how swell would Chisu do the job (if he won by some act of God) if this is the non-interest already being displayed by someone who supposedly wants to represent the riding. Also, it's no secret that Conservative backbenchers are not allowed to sneeze without Harper approval. So, I'd take McTeague over an invisible tree stump any day. So will a majority of the electorate here in PSE on May 2nd.
    11 04 20 Brendan B.
    Having lived in this riding for over 10 years now, there is definitely more Conservative signage, particularly on the Pickering side (Altona area). Either Chisu has a more organized campaign team than the past CPC candidate Tim Dobson, or he's just at the right place at the right time.
    McTeague has his personal popularity going for him. He was able to survive the mess of 08 with Dion at the helm and this time around I think this may come down to the wire. He's been the lower gas crusader for this riding for a while now and what can you really say he has accomplished? Perhaps that will play into the end result, otherwise watch this one close on election night.
    Too close to call, winner will be either CPC or Liberal by only a few thousand votes. If the NDP candidate has a strong outing (so far haven't seen many signs) we could see a CPC breakthrough but not likely.
    11 04 17 Election Watcher
    I'm not so sure Dan should have the same comfort feeling that many here seem to have about winning the Riding. Looking back at his past terms, and the past election postings here, it seems he's been running on the same platform for years, the lower gas price crusader or helping those in trouble abroad. This one may be closer than many think if the Conservatives have a strong showing. Mr. Chisu certainly has impressive qualifications; certainly strong enough to do the job for the Conservatives and more importantly the Riding if he does get the support. All one has to do is Google him to learn what he's all about. Living just next door to the riding, I think this will be one to watch.
    Will just telling people the price of gas, be enough for Dan to hold on? Really that's all about name recognition, he's found a niche, but really hasn't done anything for the gas prices and not too much directly related to P-SE. I don't think he's made that much, if any of a of a difference with or without the Liberals in power.
    >From what I've seen people may be taking time to check Chisu out. This one just may not be so cut and dry. If I could I would mark this as too close to call, I would. Trying for balance in the poll in my eyes, I will mark this reponse Conservative, but I'm not sure who will win?
    11 04 11 MH
    Even in 2008, when the Dion factor kept many Liberals at home, Dan McTeague got almost half the popular vote here. With the Liberals running a better campaign than three years ago, and some of the NDP vote drifting into the Liberal camp, this is an easy win for McTeague.
    11 03 31 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    Point of Information:
    According to Elections Canada's Poll-By-Poll results, 50.8% of the ballots cast in this riding were cast from within Toronto (Scarborough) and 49.2% from Pickering.
    11 03 30 Spot the Wonder Dog
    @ScarboroughVoter: Well, it is great that Mr. Chisu is a polyglot. He can concede on election night in at least five languages. Anyone doubting that the McTeague juggernaut will not reclaim PSE really shouldn't be an observer of federal politics. The Titanic has a better chance to reach New York than the Cons have of winning here. And, once again, the planes are using the glow from the plethora of red signs on Sheppard Avenue to line themselves up for the runways of Pearson.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    This riding is evenly split between the 416 and 905 area codes. In the 416 portion, the Liberals should win by large margins much like they do elsewhere in Scarborough. The 905 portion may be more competitive but it includes the most liberal parts of Pickering thus I would be surprised if the Tories even run even with the Liberals here, but either way this a Liberal riding.
    11 03 26 ScarboroughVoter
    Corneliu Chisu won the Conservative nomination some time ago. He is a native of Romania and engineer who speaks more than four languages (English, Italian, and Romanian, and Hungarian, and knowledge of French and other languages).
    11 03 18 Spot the Wonder Dog
    McTeague could phone this one in. Just who/where is the Con candidate anyway?
    09 09 12 A.S.
    I *thought* something didn't compute about the claim of Tory, NDP, Green *and* Liberal support all going down...well, McTeague lost 3 points and nearly 5000 votes, CPC lost 1750 votes but gained 3/4 a percentage point; NDP lost a point and a fifth of its previous vote total; but the Greens gained as many votes as the NDP lost and nearly doubled their share! In any case, with the right candidacy and the Tories gunning for a majority, even the Gas Price Watchdog could conceivably be threatened...it depends on how big a majority the Tories are gunning for, though. And by that time, Harper's ambitions might start scaring people a la 2004, thus cancelling out the threat, anyway...
    09 09 10 QM
    McTeague is a lock to win this riding. The only riding in Ontario where NDP, Green and Tory support all went down in 2008, sure Liberal support was down but McTeague was 24% above the national number which is the highest result he's had to date. Tory's had a throw away candidate last time and will likely have yet another throw away candidate in this election.
    09 09 01 Stevo
    Well-known throughout the GTA as the Gas Price Watchdog (not exactly remarkable....anyone with access to the Internet can monitor and adequately predict gas price trends, but I digress), Dan MacTeague is jovial and popular. This may be a second-tier Tory target at some point, but they aren't likely to be truly competitive here until MacTeague decides to end his run as MP.
    09 08 23 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Conservatives lost support in this riding in 2008 vs 2006. Liberals dropped more but it was because of voters sitting home. Liberals will keep this one. Besides McTeague is very popular.

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