Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-05-01 09:13:00

Constituency Profile


Austin, Katy

Cochrane, Gord

Guergis, Helena

Leitch, Kellie

Metheral, Jace

Smardenka, Alex

Vander Zaag, Peter

Hon. Helena Guergis

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • barrie-simcoe-bradford (2/227 Polls)
  • simcoe-grey (196/219 Polls)
  • simcoe-north (4/232 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 26 MH
    It now looks as if Helena Guergis will fall well short of getting re-elected, and that Kelly Leitch will win, though probably with no more than a third of the popular vote.
    11 04 22 Tim M
    I think I have to change my prediction on this one. For the Liberals to win here, they'd have to pull in every vote then can from the NDP and Greens. With the recent NDP surge in national polls, I think it will lower the Liberal vote to the point where they won't be able to win here. Plus, the Guergis issue seems to be fading from the limelight. Conservatives will win this one.
    11 04 21 Mark P.
    I don't think people realize how strong the Conservative push is in this area. Dr. Leitch's office has had problems keeping up with the demand for signs. They started by focusing on public areas but now the demand for signs by individual households has been greater than they expected and they are having problems keeping up. They may have based their estimates on the signs from last election but I don't think as many people requested them because they didn't see a need to advertise in a land-slide riding and some may have been like me in that, though I supported the Conservatives, I did not really support the Guergis family. I realize Helena is an individual but her family has caused a lot of issues in the Angus area for an awfully long time. This is going to still be an easy win for the Conservatives.
    11 04 18 Matt
    I said it the day the writ dropped, and I'll say it again. The Conservatives will win 154 seats nationally, and Helena will be reelected. Somewhere, Conservative Party brass will be banging their heads against their desks.
    11 04 16 Robert Lobloaw
    The Conservatives will win this riding with 40% plus. I live in largest town in the south part of the EDA. Leitch signs on private property in Alliston outnumber Guergis signs by about 15-1. Contrary to what you may read in the national media, there is no groundswell of support behind Ms Guergis. She will be lucky to poll 15%.
    11 04 16 MH
    To what extent were Helena Guergis's victories her own and to what extent were they the Conservatives'? She beat the Liberal candidate by a whisker in 2004 but won easily in 2006 and even more easily in 2008. The story of her treatment by the PM is unedifying and should get her some sympathy votes, though not too much should be made of this matter. It's hardly news, after all, that Stephen Harper can be vindictive and ruthless, and a good many people seem to find this appealing. In a one-on-one battle Kellie Leitch should win. However, if the Liberals get back to the 30% they took in 2006 or exceed it, and if the NDP holds at 10%, the outcome will be very much in doubt, with a win by Guergis certainly possible. And if any NDP support bleeds to the Liberals, Alex Smardenka may have a shot at this. Fascinating and right now TCTC.
    11 04 16 Stevo
    Helena Guergis was never Cabinet material to begin with, but her treatment by Harper and his staff was ridiculously over the top. It is now without much doubt that Guergis was innocent of the allegations made against her. She and her family are very well-known in these parts, and I'm betting that the voters will give her a chance to show her mettle as an Independent MP. Like most Independent MPs, however, her longevity likely won't extend past two election campaigns (think John Nunziata or Andre Arthur - the latter almost certain to be defeated this time).
    11 04 16 politicalwhizkd
    I think the outcome will largely depend on how much the Liberal vote can rise because of the candidate they're running. I don't live in this riding so I don't know who Alex S. is, but the Liberal vote here has been going down ever since the uniting of the right. Guergis has been getting a lot of positive support recently and a lot of sympathy. If she wasn't running, it would be a Conservative landslide. I think this is still a WIDE-open race, and all three could win, but if the Liberals can get over 30%, they should win in a close one because of vote-splitting. My prediction:
    Liberals 1st
    Conservatives 2nd
    Guergis 3rd
    11 04 16 Marco Ricci
    I think this seat leans towards Helena Guergis. The #1 story in political news today (Friday April 15) was that Guergis was found to have done nothing wrong by the RCMP and that it appears PM Harper had no grounds for believing the rumours that she was involved in prostitution or drugs. Guergis gave an emotional press conference in which she talked about how devastated she has been over the past year and how much damage Harper has caused to her. Harper is coming across as very mean and nasty in his treatment of Guergis, and this could give her the edge here.
    11 04 15 A
    Pretty sure Guergis is going to win. Conservative area and she has a pretty big following. There's a few people within the party association itself that hate her but the average joe acknowledges her work and success for the riding. For those a bit leery of some of Harpers actions - like the way he kicked her out - they would never vote Liberal and it's a chance to ensure someone with Conservative values gets elected.
    11 04 15 binriso
    The Guergis campaign is getting more national attention and seem to have momentum. I think the Liberal prediction is fairly over the top since they need a 10 point increase to get the 30 percent that will likely be needed to win here. Not to mention some may vote for the independent candidate. I dont know if the NDP or Greens will do as well or be close to winning since they are very much overshadowed here unfortunately by the Guergis situation. Should be a very interesting five way vote split as well as a Christian Heritage candidate that can take a few percent as well.
    11 04 15
    I just can't buy into comparisons to the independent candidacies in past elections elsewhere. Guergis is simply no Bill Casey, nor is she an Arthur Andre. In the few cases where one has left a party and ran as an independent to win. The candidate won on principle such as when Casey refused to support his government in the interests of his consituency.
    Guergis is a very different story. Her behaviour prior to be ousted was suspect at best and more likely viewed as disgraceful with or without charges. It is not as though she has stood on some principal as an independent, she has stood as one because the Conservatives won't have anything to do with her.
    Being treated badly is a question that no doubt offers several opinions and even her press conference today had many questioning her motives.
    Sour grapes is all she'll have on May 3rd to feed upon.
    All over rural Ontario this is the type of riding that turned Blue the last two elections, not because of candidates but because Conservative platform most fits rural values.
    11 04 15 kevin davids
    If Guergis is fortunate enough to get 20% of the vote, it will still not prevent the Tory from getting in. Look at the margins last time.
    This time it will be about 35-40% Tory vote-- enough for victory-- and most of the rest a Guergis/Liberal split.
    11 04 15 Alan
    This riding went Liberal when the Conservatives and Reform split the vote. It will likely go Liberal again, especially now that Guergis has been cleared and returned to the spotlight. It will go Guergis only if the Conservative vote utterly collapses here.
    11 04 15 Nick
    I think - especially after today - that is is becoming more and more likey that Helena Guergis will be re-elected.
    11 04 15 burlivespipe
    This one is hard to read -- but i'm beginning to doubt the Conservative strategy here. Although Dr. Kelly would be front-bench material (why she'd work for a misogynist like harper i don't know) at any time, right now the anger that is growing from the treatment of guergis could just as likely cause the new mother to win the seat, as split it and give it to the grits. I'm hearing a lot of sympathy for guergis that crosses party lines and a lot of those educated women voters who would normally be drawn to the Doctor are now pissed off at how guergis continues to be maligned and targeted by the PM. Right now, i'd say the Liberals eke this out, but i wouldn't put a penny on it.
    11 04 15 Teddy Boragina
    The Conservatives seem to be doing a very good job at smashing whatever credibility the sitting MP has left.
    11 04 12 R.O.
    Been to this riding before and can't possibly see the liberals geting 35% of the vote especially with a brand new candidate and during election when Helena Guergis is running as independent vs a new conservative candidate. maybe they do that well in Collingwood but definity not in the rural areas and small towns in the riding . more likely i see liberal vote going down like it did when Bill Casey ran as independent in Nova Scotia in 08. if things were looking that good for liberals here Paul Bonwick would of returned or someone well known municipally made the jump all they managed to get as a candidate was a local restaurant owner not exactly front bench material in Ottawa. the conservatives also had a huge turnout at recent nomination meeting , where is liberals didn't even have a race . this riding is clearly staying on the right , just a question if Helena Guergis keeps the seat or if Kellie Leitch wins for conservatives.
    11 04 11 dgfhlfhfhlfla
    she's going to split the vote.
    i've polled in this riding. she's running around 15-20%. the support seems to be coming mostly from long time supporters that feel that she was mistreated.
    there are a lot of people out there that hate her guts for running at all. these are the conservative partisans, that don't care who the local candidate is and just want a conservative in the riding. they're running at about 20-25%.
    the last 10-15% are centrists that voted for her in the first place because they liked her, not her party or her politics. the impression that i got on the phone is that the fiasco has turned them against harper and swung their vote liberal.
    liberal: 35%
    conservative: 25%
    guergis: 15%
    11 04 10 Cade Suffolk
    The Guergis family machine is well established in politics throughout this riding. While they just got turfed as Mayors of two or three municipalities here in Simcoe-Grey, they remain a force to be reckoned with, especially with Landowner groups and the type of people who tend to be party activists in small town interface ridings like this. Add this to a crappy Harper campaign that appears to confirm the worst tendancies of this Prime Minister and Guergis could easily win this one. It might be useful to point out the difference between candidates that parties choose in ridings like this, Liberals tend to choose more qualified candidates who have higher profile outside the riding. Conservatives run candidates who may be nobody outside the riding, but are well known and established with their own political base. This means that when Liberals dump a candidate they are generally done, while the Tories have to expect that the people they throw overboard might very well come back on their own. Plus, I expect Harper will need Guergis' vote in the House and she'll be back in caucus within a year or so.
    11 04 10 joey joe joe
    Local paper ran a story that Guergis vs. Conservatives may split the vote like Reform/Cons used to split allowing the Liberals to come up the centre. Really difficult to see how this will go.
    11 04 09 Tony Ducey
    Guergis should poll strong but I think the voters of her riding elect to go with a member of a party and not someone who carries the baggage Guergis does.
    11 04 07 Byron Montgomery
    If the election had been held a year ago, enough Conservative supporters might have been alienated by Helena Guergis' expulsion from the CPC that she might have been able to pull off a win.
    Dr. Leitch's declaration she has lived in the riding for five years is a bit of a surprise, given the party stated she was from London when they presented her to the party locals. Pretty much everyone sees her as an outsider.
    The Liberals will likely return to their usual 26% or so, even though their candidate is an unknown.
    The NDP's Austin is a good candidate but there just aren't enough votes for her.
    The Greens have a split personality in this riding. Federally, they're a leftish lot, not far off the NDP. Provincially, their candidate is the Ontario leader whose pretty much a small-c libertarian. Given they don't even know themselves, they aren't likely to do much but draw away a few from the others.
    This riding is Leitch's to lose and, if she does, she'd better be ready to get out of politics because Harper's lot will punt her at least as far as they did to Guergis.
    11 04 04 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    Even if you split the Conservative vote in half, each half has OVER 3,000 votes on the Liberals.
    The one thing I can tell you is that there are only two people who can win this riding. The sitting MP and the Conservative Candidate.
    11 04 03 M.Lunn
    If Helena Guergis were welcomed back as on Tory or decided not to run this would be an easy Conservative win as this is a solid Conservative riding. I doubt she has enough popularity to actually win this and likewise even with a centre-right split, I doubt the Liberals could split up the middle, still a little early to say for sure who will win this, but leans Conservative.
    11 04 01 RJ Fischer
    Helena Guergis the incumbent is running a strong campaign and has significant support, however the conservatives are also running a popular candidate to carry the brand in this very blue riding. This dynamic will likely split the vote heavily and you will have a return to the results you saw when the PC, Alliance split the vote and the Liberals will come up the middle to take the riding
    11 03 29 D. Gilbert
    Simcoe Grey is conservative but most people I talk to in Wasaga Beach are supporting Helena Guergis. They respect that she did not bolt to the Liberals and feel that she is a good Conservative who was unfairly dealt with.
    I predict a slim Guergis win.
    11 03 29 Mark P.
    Someone suggested that Leitch was parachuted in. She's lived in the riding for more that 5 years by her choice not by the Conservative Party's choice.
    11 03 29 Mark P.
    Dr. Kellie Letch is well-rounded enough to push Helena out. Most of the people in the region are conservative so won't vote indepedent to keep Helena Guergis in the riding. The Guergis name is poison in the Angus area as it is--her cousins and sister all lost their municipal elections and now, not being part of the Conservative party, she will not be able to get in even if she has a ‘name’.
    11 03 27 Marco Ricci
    I think Helena's name recognition and former political experience in the riding will give her the edge here. Harper and the Conservatives have not offered a clear explanation as to why she was fired, and so she appears to have some sympathy with voters and the media. I think she will edge out the Conservative candidate, but we will see. I'm surprised the Liberals didn't nominate a high-profile candidate to take advantage of the vote-splitting. I think if they had run former MP Paul Bonwick, they might have had a chance to come up the middle. With this newer candidate I'm not so sure if they can do that.
    11 03 24 Steve Deighton
    The Prime Minister was unfortunately blinded by his vindictiveness here.
    All he had to do was let Helena run and be challenged. If she won the nomination great. If not the local Conservatives make the choice. Dr. Leitch should have made a case to allow Helena to run for the local nomination. If she won in this scenario no issue from me and likely others. Now her win is tainted in my view.(BTW not my view alone but shared by a number of MP's in the Ontario Conservative Caucas)
    So the PM chose to parachute Leitch into Simcoe-Grey.
    Well, get this, Mr. Prime Minister, as a life long Conservative who has supported your team, I am going to switch my primary residence to my Cottage in Simcoe Grey and 'parachute' my vote in for fairness and democracy.
    I urge all in Simcoe Grey to send this PM a message he can't ignore.
    Go Helena!
    11 03 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Okay, that kerfufle we spoke of earlier has not gone away and has morphed into the current situation that we're all too familiar with. Ms Guergis has been wronged by Harper and company. However we do not belive for one second that if she was still in caucas, and this happened to someone else, that she would be a champion of truth and justice. Rather she would be part of the horde clapping on Harper and turning a blind eye to the injustice. A warning perhaps to those who are ‘in’ with Harper at the moment? Regardless, the point is, we have this opinion and probably many voters in this riding will have come to the same conclusion. This will complicate maters and make a prediction much harder. Helena just needs to split the Conservative vote in half and the Liberals can come up the middle. Take into account how many people will now not vote for either Helena or Harper. What about those who sat home last time, bouyed by the prospect of snatching a solid Conservative seat? Lots of intrest in what should have been a very boring riding.
    11 03 17 durham gal
    It has now become clearly apparent that Helenia did nothing wrong. Except if you included her decision not to take part in the notorious in and out money scheme. Because Helenia choose not to break the law she got booted. She is gaining a lot of sympathy across the country and it must be alarming Harper. He will try and offer a big plum job, and I am sure she will turn it down and run again. I am Liberal and I plan to vote for her and will encourage everyone to do so. I think when the voters in Simcoe Gray see the whole story that is going to come soon, Helenia will be re-elected.
    11 02 01
    Ah, Guergis. This seat should stay Tory barring the perfect storm a strong local Liberal campaign, a poor national Conservative campaign, and a kamikaze spoiler run by the incumbent.
    10 12 16 John
    In the next election, this is going to be a riding to watch.
    None of the major parties enjoy an incumbency advantage, and the incumbent just might (pregnancy notwithstanding) run as an independent. The one thing that could force Guergis to change her mind is if the next election is called late in her pregnancy, or even shortly after her child is born. She and Jaffer will have a lot of diapers to change, and raising an infant is a lot of work that will eat into time available for campaigning.
    This seat is too close to call, and might stay that way right up, almost, to election day.
    10 12 01 wyatt
    With Dr. Kellie Leitch now carrying the Tory banner in this riding, this may actually be safer than if Guergis has remained the Conservative candidate. It will be awful hard to campaign against her, and she's got tremendous support from prominent caucus members.
    10 10 05 D. Gilbert
    Independent Conservative, HELENA GUERGIS, has now led in two polls against the other parties. The local community is solidly conservative and most ended up feeling that she should have been let back into the Conservative Party once the RCMP cleared her.
    She is being held to a high standard that many other politicians have not been held to throughout the years.
    Rahim Jaffer should have nothing to do with whether or not she is in the party. That is her personal life and it should be relatively off limits.
    I strongly believe she will be re-elected.
    10 09 02 R.O.
    Unlike some other cpc ridings in Ontario i don't disagree moving this one into too close to call category. but it should be mentioned its a riding with a long conservative history and has only ever been liberal during 97-2000 elections both of which were very easy elections for the liberals in Ontario. I'm not really sure why Helena Guergis wants to run again when considering her situation and fact she is expecting a child. well she might not be facing any legal issues over the recent scandal her reputation is still in the mud as they say and its questionable that she can be an effective MP for the riding. and trying to survive based around the Guergis name might not work as one of her relatives when Simcoe County warden tried to push thru an extremely unpopular garbage dump in the riding so that may hurt her. its clear the conservatives will have a new candidate in this riding although its not clear who or when that person will be decided. but some people have allready come forward expressing interest such as Collingwood mayor Chris Carrier.
    10 08 06 Marco Ricci
    Today Guergis said she still plans to run in the next election, so it looks like she will be running as an Independent even if she doesn't get back into the Conservatives.
    It will be interesting to see whether she can win on her own, whether the new Conservative candidate can win, or whether the vote split will allow the Liberals to win back the riding. This should be undecided for now.
    10 07 12 RF
    I think with Helena out of the Conservatives and vowing to run as an independent there is the very real risk of the Conservative vote being split enough in this riding to give the Liberals a chance at it, it's unwise to discount the cult of popularity around this politician and her family, and the seasoned machine that backs it, also look to see the Green Party vault over the fading NDP and possibly one of the conservative candidates.
    10 06 08 Marco Ricci
    Helena Guergis has announced that may run in this riding as an Independent if the Conservatives do not reverse their decision to strip her of the nomination.
    ‘I'm not ready to give up my political career at this point,’’If it is my only option, say if something happens in the very near future, yes, I will run as an independent.’
    It will be interesting to see whether Helena does indeed run as an Independent and how many votes she gets compared to the Conservative candidate. Can she beat the Conservative candidate based on her record and name-recognition? Or will the scandals make people turn away from her and vote for the new Conservative? Finally, could the Liberals benefit from a vote-split and sneak up the middle?
    10 05 16 binriso
    If previous MP Paul Bonwick would come back and run for the Liberals they might have a chance but Im pretty sure the CPC will drop Guergis and this riding is so heavily CPC that enough of their voters will line up behind whoever the new candidate is.
    10 05 10 Rick Middleton
    It'll be tough for the Liberals to win over this riding. Guergis took 55% of the vote in 2008. Even with a vote split between Guergis supporters and the new CPC candidate, the Liberals will have to make up some serious ground and have a relative newcomer in Andrea Matrosovs as their candidate. Not out of the realm of possibility though, it depends on the constituents willingness to either accept a candidate with some serious issues or a newcomer parachuted in by the PM. If both of those options seem unpalatable, they may choose Matrosovs as their protest vote.
    10 05 04 R.O.
    I'm pretty familar with this riding and don't see it as a likely liberal pick up as its more of a right of centre riding by nature, more it could turn into something similar to a Cumberland - Colchester type situation that we saw in Bill Caseys old riding. it should also be noted the liberals don't have a strong candidate here and neither do the greens who have oddly instead decided to go after popular provincial mpp Jim Wilson by running provincial leader Mike Schreiner here. Helena Guergis only hope is if parliament goes on for a while and somehow her name and that of her husband are cleared. but as of now i couldn't see how she could run or even understand why she'd want to run again and be anywhere near ottawa . and if there is an open conservative nomination here i would expect there to be alot of interest. although as of now the situation remains rather unclear.
    10 04 15 Cory Martin
    I will go out on a limb and say this riding will go Liberal. After the scandle Helena had endured I don't think the riding can trust her.
    10 04 14 Marco Ricci
    Since my last post below, the Helena Guergis scandal has gotten much bigger. She has now been fired from Cabinet by Stephen Harper, and removed from the Conservative party pending an investigation by the RCMP.
    If she were to run here again, I think it could give the Liberals an opportunity to win this riding back if they pick a strong candidate. However, if the Conservatives pick a new candidate without all the baggage that Helena G. has, they have a good chance of hanging onto it. We will have to wait and see what happens in this riding later this year.
    10 04 09 B.O.
    Helena Guergis has just been kicked out of the Conservative caucus for a scandal. This seat's label should be changed to independent. Nevertheless this is a strong Conservative riding. Guergis seems unlikely to run in the next election as an independent and the riding should easily go Conservative in the next election with a new Conservative candidate.
    10 03 17 Marco Ricci
    Will the recent ‘Airport-Gate’ incident harm Helena Geurgis? Her outburst in PEI appears to have angered not only opposition party supporters, but Conservative supporters as well.
    According to CTV's Robert Fife, even Conservatives are not happy with her behaviour and want her removed from cabinet. If she continues to drag down her party, she could become vulnerable, but at this point she still has the lead here until the Liberals re-establish themselves in this riding.
    Fife also reports that Stephen Harper is very likely to remove her from cabinet later this year when the fuss dies down. If she loses her cabinet status, this takes away some of her appeal. Some voters may be less inclined to vote for her if she no longer has the attraction of bringing cabinet influence to this riding. It will be interesting to see how this one plays out.
    09 10 19 A.S.
    The Jaffer thing'll only hit Guergis if she's facing something like what Diane Finlay faced in '08: a maverick independent-populist candidate and a killer Liberal candidate. And Finlay survived. And Jaffer's misadventures don't hold a candle to the Caledonia powderkeg as a vote-robber. Guergis'll only be endangered if the Tories sink to '00 Alliance levels of support or worse.
    09 10 06 R.O.
    some things need to be clarified as to the one comment here. first off the dump better known as site 41 has been cancelled after much public protest so its not going to be an issue in the riding during a federal election and likely wouldn't of been a federal issue anyways but its been cancelled so its definitely not an issue anymore. secondly her husband Rahim Jaffer has yet to have his day in court so we still don't known the whole story there and might be best to wait till the trial before making any judgments as to that one. as for the riding of simcoe grey its generally a conservative area politically but does have some areas with growing populations seen by the liberals as favorable demographics due to the fact many of these new residents are coming from the GTA. but only some of these new residents are actually liberals and many would likely vote conservative as well. the liberal candidate Andrea Matrosovs even though she ran once before has absolutely no profile in the riding so that doesn't help either. anyways with conservative numbers up in ontario a seat like this one is a pretty safe bet for the tories.
    09 09 28 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    The kerfuffle arising from Rahim Jaffer DUI and cocaine charges is not going to be Guergis' downfall. However it's likely going to hurt her a little bit. Although there are no allegations against her, there will be many voters who will say that if Jaffer was using drugs, she must have known about it. Doesn't bode well for the party that claims to be tough on crime. Some may switch their vote in protest, others just stay home. Unlike lesser kerfuffles, ones like this tend to stay in people's minds a lot longer. None the less, she has done an excellent job and we think most people won't hold it against her. We say she wins but she will have a reduced majority.
    09 09 28
    I knew somebody would bring her family into all of this. Helena Guergis is Helena Guergis, not her cousin Tony or her husband Rahim Jaffer. Guergis as an MP, Cabinet Minister and individual is very well-liked in this riding. Missteps by two different individuals in her family won't wear off her ?shine.? Guergis has been a landslide victor in this riding for two elections now, and that won't change.
    09 09 16 C.R.
    Normally I'd concur (and lament) with those that say Helena Guergis has a mortal lock on the riding, but with her cousin Tony, the county warden, embroiled in controversy over a dump at one end of her riding (Ralph Nader and other notables have been around to protest it and rail against Guergis of late) and her husband, former MP Rahim Jaffer now charged with drunk driving and cocaine possession the shine is starting to wear on the Guergis brand. It'd take a lot of work and perhaps some disasters at the top of the Tory campaign to unseat her, but I don't think she can count on her name alone at this moment to endear her to constituents.
    09 09 01
    Helena Guergis is well-liked here. The family name has deep roots in the riding. Easy victory for Guergis even in the event of a national Conservative meltdown.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    The Guergis name has been on the ballot too many times, at many levels of government. Not to mention her place in cabinet, and the fact that the riding has a PC MPP. Tory hold.

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