Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry

Prediction Changed
2009-08-25 16:09:00

Constituency Profile


Clement, Bernadette

Donnelly, Darcy Neal

Lauzon, Guy

Leclerc, Mario

Walsh, Wyatt Joseph

Guy Lauzon

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • glengarry-prescott-russell (10/198 Polls)
  • stormont-dundas-charlottenburgh (203/203 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    11 04 10 SouthpawPundit
    This used to be a Liberal stronghold (especially when I lived in the riding), but things have changed dramatically in recent years. The right is united, the NDP has been siphoning Liberal votes in Cornwall, Francophone voters are growing less and less Liberal (to the benefit of both the Tories and the NDP), rural Eastern Ontario has become a Tory bastion, and Guy Lauzon's been around for a few years.
    In other words, this riding's (unfortunately) staying Tory for a long time, barring a significant realignment of the Canadian political scene.
    11 04 08 Tony Ducey
    The combined Conservative vote in 2000 would have led to a victory for a united right, here in 2011 they're united and look to be headed for re-election. Lauzon holds on here.
    11 03 29 C.A.B.
    Despite the presence of an independent siphoning off votes, Lauzon still finished in the top 5 among all Conservatives in Ontario last time, with the third-highest margin, a whopping 38 points. The second-place Liberals, as noted, were under 20% here. I don't expect Howard Galganov to run here again; on the other hand, an independent is running in Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke this time. Therefore it wouldn't surprise me if Lauzon did better than Gallant as a result, maybe even nabbing the best Tory tally in Ontario. All I'm predicting for sure, though, is a Conservative win.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    This may have once been a Liberal stronghold due to its large Francophone minority and the fact Catholics outnumber Protestants 2:1. But considering that level of religiosity rather than what sect is a bigger indicator today, this is less of an issue as well as the Francophone minority is far more evenly split. In 2000, the Canadian Alliance got 39% and since then this has been one of the Tories best showings in Ontario, so I cannot see them losing this.
    09 11 05 A.S.
    The turnaround here is absolutely astonishing, for a onetime Liberal stronghold to come to the point where the Grits couldn't even crack 20%, not even with a more mainstreamish candidate than '06's ex-Green standard-bearer Tom Manley--then again, Dion's Green Shift might well have picked up where Manley left off, esp. when it comes to being electoral kryptonite in industrial Cornwall. If things were to follow through exponentially from '08, *NDP* second place isn't out of the question. (And given the economic parallels btw/Cornwall and places like Welland and Sarnia, it shouldn't be entirely illogical, either, at least in raw terms.)
    09 10 06 R.O.
    The conservatives first won this seat back in 2004 and it did have some liberal history back in the days but i'd say its become more of a base conservative riding at the moment. Guy Lauzon remains a well liked mp in the riding and has considerable support in the rural areas. the liberals have been running new candidates here each election in the hopes someone does better than before and now there going with a female city councillor from Cornwall. anyways with conservative numbers up in ontario anything they won in 2004 and 2006 is likely to stay conservative and the real races fought in the close swing ridings.
    09 09 15 Jophus
    Guy Lauzon's reputation around Parliament Hill as ?the clapper? may not have completely crossed over to his riding, but it has become increasingly clear, especially with the bridge dispute, that Lauzon takes his marching orders directly from PMO, not from his constituents. Every speaking point has been written in backrooms in Ottawa, and not all even apply to the on-the-ground situation in SDSG. Lauzon has handed out literature, made passport clinics look like a special offering rather than a function of his role as MP, and done not a single thing else. The people are growing frustrated by this. Add to the mix a new, popular Liberal candidate who is reaching out to all elements of the riding, rural and urban, anglophone and francophone, and Lauzon is in for a fight unlike any he's faced since Kilger was in office and Lauzon was the Reform Party Candidate.
    09 09 01 Jack Russell
    If the election were held today, then Lauzon would be a sure bet. However, the native protest which kept the bridge closed and Lauzon's perceived lack of action on the issue will hurt him a bit. Just as a reminder this was once a Liberal stronghold. The Liberal candidate is a fresh face and could generate some revived interest. Also, if there is the perception that the Liberals are going to win nationally than this could help turn it back to the Grits. So while many predictions may change if/when we head into a fall election, at this point expect Guy to hold the riding, but with a bit more of a challenge than he's previously faced.
    09 08 24 wyatt
    Guy Lauzon is very popular with his constituents. It's doubtful that the Liberals can close a 17,000 vote gap in SDSG.

    Navigate to Canada 2011 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

    Canada Federal Election - 2011
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Milton Chan, 1999-2011 - Email Webmaster