Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-05-01 09:13:00

Constituency Profile


Hartman, Carol

Morin, Will

Popescu, J. David

Slade, Fred

Thibeault, Glenn

Twilley, Fred

Glenn Thibeault

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • nickel-belt (24/190 Polls)
  • sudbury (193/193 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 01 NJam101
    Thibeault will win for sure. The Liberal campaign has fallen apart and Conservatives only get 25-30% of the votes here in their best times. Only the NDP can really move up here. Jack Layton did visit Sudbury, more than once I think, and got people talking. This is a traditional Liberal riding but has changed somewhat recently. Many people from smaller towns in Northern Ontario are moving to the cities. This could be a reason why the NDP has become more popular. The NDP seems to do well in Northern Ontario when there is economic instability or uncertainty, something that exists in mining municipalities. Some people believe that labour unions play a large role. They do for sure but even more so these days seems to be those who work in the service sector and are struggling to make ends meet. Look at all of those big box stores, hotels and restaurants that have appeared in Sudbury. Most offer low paying jobs where the employees are finding it hard to make ends meet. The NDP's policies are a natural fit for them.
    11 04 30 Michael Fox
    The NDP won this with 35% of the vote last time. The Liberals were at 30%, and the Conservatives were at 25%.
    This time, the NDP is up 10% in Ontario. I think a lot of that shift has happened in close Liberal/NDP ridings.
    With the Liberals fading, this one should be an easy NDP win - with the Conservatives in 2nd, and the Liberals in 3rd.
    11 04 29 SudburyAM
    I was surprised to see this riding listed as Too close to call.
    Observons d'abord la visibilité des candidats et des partis.
    Le candidat Conservateur a probablement la plus grande affiche en ville, énorme, attachée sur le château d'eau près du centre-ville. Ironiquement, à ses côtés se trouve une aussi grosse publicité de Vale (pendant la grève qui a duré 11 mois, on a souvent entendu que le gouvernement Conservateur était l'ami de la compagnie minière multinationale). Cependant, la prépondérance bleue s'arrête là. Sur les propriétés privées, c'est rouge et orange. Il faut savoir où chercher pour trouver des quartiers ayant plus d'affiches bleues. Du côté des chefs de partis, Layton et Ignatieff sont passés par Sudbury pendant la campagne; Harper s'est tenu loin.
    Il est donc clair que la course se fait, encore cette fois, entre le PLC et le NPD. Cela dit:
    - Thibeault (NPD) a été très visible ces dernières années comme député.
    - la majorité des prévisions que j'ai vues donnent la victoire au NPD à Sudbury.
    De plus, il est tout à fait raisonnable de croire que la récente ‘vague orange’ pancanadienne se fera sentir à Sudbury aussi.
    Pour ces raisons, le résultat du 2 mai devrait ressembler à celui de 2008.
    11 04 29 Political junkie
    With the increased popularity of the NDP and the Liberal slide, the incumbent Thibeault should have no problem keeping his seat.
    11 04 28 keefr
    This should be called for the NDP now. Though their Ontario numbers lag behind their national/Quebec ‘surge’, incumbents should not face too many challenges, though some races will be close.
    11 04 25 TRuff
    The usual is a split vote between Liberal and Tory supporters in this riding unless the Liberal Voters swing to the Tory side this time around. A rather lackluster campaign by both the Liberals and the Tories in this round with no door to door contact by the main parties at all. NDDP will shoot down the middle and hold onto this seat.
    11 04 24 JFBreton
    ThreeHundredEight.com et Democraticspace.com donnent le NPD gagnant ici et j'aurais tendance à le croire aisément. La montée du NPD au Québec et son effet d'entraînement au Canada anglais, de même que la stagnation du vote libéral, assurent au NPD de conserver ses sièges dans le nord de l'Ontario. Seule Sault.Ste.Marie me semble encore difficile à prévoir. Victoire NPD.
    11 04 19 MF
    Ignatieff's ‘Rise Up’ speech notwithstanding, I think the NDP will be re-elected in Sudbury. Glenn Thibeault now has the advantage of incumbency and Jack Layton has the most momentum of all the party leaders.
    11 04 18 E.G.
    I voted in this riding last election, and it was a pretty clear NDP victory. After the Conservatives basically spit in the face of the people of Sudbury during the Vale strike, I can't see the Conservatives really coming close. I expect NDP to gain in their share of the popular vote.
    11 04 16 Marco Ricci
    Ignatieff held a townhall event here today. This riding still appears to be on the Liberal radar.
    11 04 11 jeff316
    Re: gun registry and the North. Here's the thing that people often mistake. You don't have to give a fig about guns to be mad about the gun registry. People living in Sudbury, the Soo, TBay and even Timmins are not predisposed to gun ownership. I know that - I've lived and worked in the North. But that's not the point. The appeal of the gun registry goes beyond gun owners; to people who mistrust government, who dislike waste and/or bureaucracy, and who don't like flip-flopping politicians. And that's the key - it's the flip-flop of NDP MPs like Thibault and Allen that turns off voters - they said one thing in town, went to Ottawa, and the big city got the better of 'em. It's a bread and butter class war issue of the right. It plays well in many working-class ridings in the north and south. If it had no appeal, why would Harper the master political tactician be campaigning on it, over and over and over again, and in placed like Welland? Look, the Conservatives may not squeak this one out as I predicted (who knows) but to dismiss the gun registry issue's relevance is inaccurate.
    11 04 08 DL
    Glenn Thibeault has had a very high profile. The vast majority of polls now show the NDP running at the same high teens level across Ontario (i.e. 17%-21%) - while the Liberals seem to have lost ground to the Tories. There is an outside chance that the Tories could win here if they find some way to get traction on the gun registry. The Liberals will be a distant third.
    11 04 08 R.O.
    Going to just make a prediction here , think ndp will hold it oddly enough . liberals and conservatives might make race interesting , still small chance it go liberal but less likely to happen i'm thinking. but it appears Glenn Thibeault has an odd advantage here that being low expectations as no one though he'd win in 08 yet alone be up to the job of mp. so he has exceeded expectations and that make it difficult for his oppenents. combine that with fact ndp very strong in Nickel Belt polls that border sudbury it may be very difficult for liberals to take back seat. they also have to deal with voters upset with provincial liberal government and that fact hurting liberal brand in Ontario. but gun registry vote did hurt the ndp here and cost them some credibility , but might not hurt them as much in urban sudbury as it will in other rural polls in the north.
    11 04 08
    With the NDP vote in ONtario collapsing from 23% down to 11%(Nanos) this riding will return to the liberals
    11 04 06 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Given the polling trends seen in Ontario, where NDP support is going to the Liberals, it would seem likely that this riding going NDP was just a blip and it'll return to their roots and go Liberal.
    11 04 06 binriso
    Liberals are no longer the incumbents here and have lost their long-time MP. Conservatives likely get into 2nd this time but not enough to take the seat away from the NDP. Same goes with every other NDP Northern Ontario seat, cept maybe Sault Ste Marie which is vulnerable. Id say something like 36-29-28 NDP-CPC-LIB here, with 6-7 percent left over for the Greens.
    11 04 05 NJam101
    Although Thibeault received about 35% of the votes last time I believe he has the best chance of winning and with more of the votes this time. The conservative vote is usually between 20-25% in this riding. I can't see a mining municipality warming up to a Harper government. Last time Liberal Diane Marleau (who was once a cabinet minister) hit a record low for a Liberal candidate in Sudbury at 30%. It will be interesting to see if Carol Hartman will do any better. I agree with Dr. Bear's comments. The Sudbury riding is an urban city with mines, a university, has many public sector employers and a large service sector. The gun registry is likely one the last things on the minds of the people there. I live in Timmins and am in Sudbury frequently.
    11 04 04 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
    I live in the north. The one ones talking about the gun registry are Conservatives and their spin doctors (and the chattering class that likes debating politics). Sudbury is a city and people do not generally take their rifles to the mall or to school or church or whatever. Sudbury has more in common with Windsor or Hamilton, this isn't the wild west or the great barren northern wastelands. If the Conservatives do take this riding it will be for other reasons.
    11 04 03 jeff316
    The gun registry will make this the shock Conservative win of the election. The issue with the gun registry isn't actually registering the guns - it's an outlet for anti-government steam. And by switching his vote, the NDP candidate plays into the perception that MPs go to Ottawa and lose their local perspective and are no longer connected to the people who voted them in. Carol Hartman will siphon just enough former Liberal voters back to let the Conservative candidate slide up the middle, beating the NDP by a couple of hundred votes.
    11 04 03 M.Lunn
    If the Liberals pick up any seats in Northern Ontario this is their best shot. The Conservatives have no chance at winning this, but they could play the role of spoiler. A slight NDP edge, but far from certain.
    11 03 28 Dave
    It has been a long time coming but conservatives are finally becoming competitive in Sudbury. The previous CPC candidate finished a very respectable third have significantly narrowed the gap from past elections.
    Sudbury has also taken the step of electing a conservative oriented Mayor in 2010 after the disaster of John Rodriguez.
    This change bodes well for the CPC. The NDP MP accomplished a great voctory in 2008 by beating the incumbent Liberal Dianne Marleau. Then he blew his advantage by siding against many residents of Greater Sudbury who own long guns to keep the Long Gun Registry alive.
    I call this one TCTC.
    10 02 24 Full
    This was definitely the big surprise of 2008 in the region; this is a riding that even stayed Liberal in the John Turner blowout of 1984, and it really isn't a riding in which the NDP has ever been nearly as strong as they are next door in Nickel Belt. Glenn Thibeault will get a certain incumbent advantage here, though it remains to be seen whether it'll be enough to hold off any swing back to the riding's traditional voting patterns.
    So although he's doing an admirable job, he's still almost certainly the region's most vulnerable incumbent.
    09 12 22 A.S.
    This was Jack Layton's bonus pickup in the North, and as such bears all the superficial earmarks of vulnerability--except that, how much more palatable are the IggyGrits in Northern Ontario compared to the DionGrits? Maybe it's also a question of, vulnerable to *whom*--after all, this was technically a 3-way marginal in 2008. Yes, a Tory win (or at least outpolling the Liberals) in Sudbury might not be as implausible as it appears--hey, if they could almost win the Soo, why not the Big Nickel...
    09 11 18 binriso
    I think this riding is leaning NDP but should be a competitive race, although the incumbent's advantage + new candidates for the other main parties should carry the day for the NDP.
    09 10 13 R.O.
    The next election will be one of the more interesting races the sudbury riding has seen in a while as normally it was seen as a safe liberal seat that no one paid attention to. now its ndp but for how long ? the ndp's challenge is to prove there win last time was not a fluke like there 97 victory in a riding like cape breton as an example . the liberals challenge is to win back there previous supporters in the riding some of who have drifted to the conservatives and ndp instead. and i'm not sure Carol Hartman is the most well known candidate they could of found so not sure that be an easy task. but the ndp mp Glenn Thibeault isn't that high profile either but does have the advantage of being mp for at least a year. the conservatives will be running a new candidate here Fred Slade. he'll be a factor in the race but not likely to win in this area which has generally been unfriendly to the conservatives but they haven't totally forgot about the riding and did bring in senator Mike Duffy for a visit. i'd say for the moment its too close to call .
    09 09 12 Marco Ricci
    The Liberals lost all their seats in Northern Ontario in the last election except one (Nipissing). This was one of the seats they lost. Diane Marleau had been here for a long time and some thought she was gradually losing touch with the riding as her margin had decreased over time. It therefore could be an advantage for the Liberals to have a new candidate here, but the new candidate will lack the same name recognition.
    However, this is a seat the Liberals want back and they held their summer retreat here a few weeks ago where Ignatieff made his big announcement about bringing down Harper. Ignatieff also stated that he wanted Sudbury back in the Liberal column so it is certainly on the Liberal radar. The Liberals will need to improve their bad numbers in Northern Ontario from the last election in order to take back this seat. This seat may act as a bellwhether for Liberal strength in the province as whether it is heading towards Liberal or NDP may tell the tale for the other seats in the region.
    09 09 06 PY
    It's a much different reality in Sudbury these days as Inco's current Brazilian masters have essentially said that they aren't going to be obligating themselves any more than they need to with regards to the workers there and if anything, there's a certain bit of resignation, if not acceptance of that in the air now; how Thibault, Layton and the NDP would've been able to get through to Vale's management is beyond me.
    I have a feeling that those who stayed at home may now have realized what a mistake they made and that this may be the same kind of electoral blip as 1967, when Bud Germa became was the last federal NDPer elected in the riding. While the recently nominated Liberal candidate Carol Hartman may not necessarily be the riding's saviour, I'm inclined to go with history here.
    09 08 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    We were surprised with a number of Ontario ridings going either NDP or Con in 2008 and this is one of them. Once we looked at the numbers it was obvious, Liberal supporters stayed home in 2008. The NDP won this riding with few votes than what they lost with in 2006. A pattern seen all across Ontario and in parts of BC and Atlantic Canada too. The question is now, will voters return to the Liberals or stay NDP? Sudbury has been hit very hard economically and the miners may stick with the union ties and vote NDP. Also need to wonder what all those stay-at-home Liberals will do in the next election. This riding has become quite interesting.

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