Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-25 16:09:00

Constituency Profile


Bardens, Trevor

Flaherty, Jim

Harrison, Rebecca

Insang, Josh

McAuliffe, Trish

Hon. Jim Flaherty

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • durham (10/199 Polls)
  • oshawa (44/208 Polls)
  • whitby-ajax (124/195 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 26 MH
    Unlike John Baird in Ottawa-West Nepean, Jim Flaherty is one Ontario-based cabinet minister who is in no trouble. He will get at least half the votes and win in a walk.
    11 04 04 JP
    Easy hold for the Conservatives. It would take a superstar Liberal candidate to take down Flaherty, or an epic scandal to unseat him. The Liberals finally presented their candidate - Trevor Bardens. His claim to fame appears to be that he's run for Councillor in 2010 and lost quite badly. Smells more like someone raising their profile than mounting a serious campaign...
    11 03 31 C.A.B.
    Flaherty managed to get an absolute majority, and double the vote of his nearest opponent, last time - and the Liberals learned the pitfalls of running a single-issue candidate. It's hard to say how well the Tories would do here without the Flaherty machine bolstering them, but that's immaterial for now. He held on provincially in 2003, and I see no reason why he won't do the same federally in 2011.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    The Tories won by almost a 2:1 margin and those don't disappear 2.5 years later without a good reason. As controversial as Jim Flaherty may be elsewhere, he has never had any trouble winning in his own riding.
    09 12 26 A.S.
    All politics is local, and Flaherty knows it--he's a local politician, above all, who just happens to be federal finance minister. He even wears the inherent nepotism of Christine Elliot succeeding him at Queen's Park well, in a Mr. & Mrs. Whitby-Oshawa way. They're the classic down-home Tory political couple, just like in the days of Frost and Robarts and Davis and their reflected federal glory. Oh, Flaherty's one of those evil HarrisHarper right-wingers who sent erstwhile Davis Tories into Liberal arms? Gee whiz, didn't notice. Ah well, barring a big jolt, expect Grits and NDP to battle for a distant second--and more ingloriously in the Grits' case, considering how they're the ones more vocally claiming ‘strategic opposition rights’ here.
    09 09 17 R.O.
    Just don't think the liberals get this riding and its more than likely a hold for current mp Jim Flaherty. he could likely win it on name recognition alone i suspect but being finance minister and a high profile one considering the econony is the number 1 issue at the moment helps as well . i also don't think the deficit will hurt him here much as the suburban voter is more concerned about other things like if there going to be geting their home renovation tax credit back come income tax time than they are concerned about whats going on in Ottawa. as for the liberals or ndp i'm not even sure who they are going to run here and wouldn't be surprised to see some new candidates appear soon rather than later.
    09 09 11
    This riding is very interesting. The federal debt is exploding and all of the media I watched or read on the issue the Finance Minister emits a vision of throwing his hands up and giving up. It is hard for him to give any credable explain anymore. I am not sure that he will actually run. He may wait it out for Hudak to flop on his face in the next provincial, (and he will) election, go for the provincial leadership, by then the conservatives may have a chance a governing again.
    09 09 03 Whitby Concern
    Another Flaherty win...if he is running...even if he is not I say another conservative win....Liberals will need to find a home grown candidate to come even close.
    09 09 01 MF
    Even if Jim Flaherty is a polarizing figure and regarded as a disaster as Finance Minister, he is very popular with his suburban, middle class constituency. It's true that the Liberals tanked due to Dion being a flop as leader and for running a parachute candidate (a Forest Hill investment banker who ran on a one-issue campaign about income trusts), but even a stronger Liberal national campaign and a better candidate won't be enough.
    09 08 24 wyatt
    If the Tories campaign on the economy, and the voter's trust of them to handle it better than their opponents, look for Flaherty to reap the benefit. His name recognition is off the charts thanks to his years in Queens Park and exposure as Finance Minister. This is significant in itself, before one acknowledges his '08 lead of 15,000. Definite Tory hold.

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