Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-28 16:57:00

Constituency Profile


Hall Findlay, Martha

Leung, Chungsen

Mollahasani, Mehdi

Martha Hall Findlay

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • don-valley-east (9/194 Polls)
  • willowdale (180/208 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 29 OgtheDim
    The NDP candidate is a nice guy. He's local, well spoken and does a lot for the community. Unfortunately, the NDP have no GOTV in this riding at all. He's very young, so a potential person for a few years from now when the NDP has become a bit more established outside of the downtown.
    The CPC doesn't have much structure here either. The CPC seems to have pockets of good GOTV capability and is targetting efforts towards those few ridings. For example, if the CPC had a good structure within the 416, they would have run a star candidate against MHF in the bylection a few years ago and work that person up either to win this riding or another one within the 416. Peter Kent is the example of that strategy. Leung - not in the same league as MHF.
    MHF is still relatively new, has a good GOTV, and Chretien fired them up the other day. That will stop any potential for a CPC up the middle through a split vote.
    11 04 28
    Hall Findlay by default.
    It is too bad the Conservatives could not get a ‘name’ to run.
    A loser from another riding cannot win.
    Hall Findlay is beatable, but not by Mr. Nobody.
    I have received no literature, phone calls or door knocks from any candidate.
    That is why it is default.
    She has done nothing, and spoken few times in the House.
    It is too bad when a candidate becomes automatic because of lack of interest.
    I sure hope the PC's can come up with a candidate in the Provincial election.
    Same story.
    11 04 26
    The new Condos at Bayview and Sheppard are about 1/4 of the amount of new condos that went up around Finch and Yonge in the last 3 years. Regardless, all those condos are filled more with recent immigrants from Iran and China then seniors.
    As for the sign wars depends upon where you live but Leung is winning that aspect (as was Turnbull vs. Zimmer a few years ago provincially, BTW).
    The issue here is whether enough left of centre voters went from MHF to the NDP to give the CPC the riding up the middle. She's too well liked for that. The CPC is not gaining.
    11 04 26 MH
    Correction to the previous post: the NDP outpolled the Greens in 2008, 5,011 to 3,130. The Green Party did finish ahead of the NDP in the 2007 by-election. But neither outcome will affect the outcome in 2011. Barring a collapse of Liberal strength in Toronto during the last week of the campaign, this should be an easy hold for the Grits.
    11 04 25 Initial
    Driving up Willowdale Ave this morning I noticed a lot more blue than I have in the past few weeks, but it was the absolute EXPLOSION in NDP signs that I took notice of. If these newfound NDP voters pull their support from the Liberals, it could allow Chungsen Leung to sneak up the ‘middle’. At this point, however, I'd still say Martha-Hall Findlay will take it, but maybe not by a comfortable margin if the NDP surge continues.
    11 04 24
    The Greens finished third ahead of the NDP in this riding back in 2008.There is no Green candidate this time out. This will allow Hall Findlay to hold on to this seat come May 2.
    11 04 22 GSN
    If lawn signs are of any indication, Mrs. Finlay is in for a very tough battle to keep her seat. Last time her signs were outnumbering Jake's by something like 20 to 1, but now it's Mr. Leung who's winning by 3 to 2 overall. Not sure about the final outcome, but CPC definitely has a chance with this riding.
    11 04 21 GSN
    Mr. Leung might be able to pull it off. Driving around the town, I see the Tory signs outnumbering the grit ones by about 3 to 2. In the last election, it was more like the libs winning the cons by about 20 to 1 margin in the sign war. This riding is heavily populated with Chinese people (in fact Koreans, kantonese speaking Chinese, and Iranians constitute the majority of the population), and they are coming out in drove to elect their own folk in parliament. Also it helps that many of the new condos around the Bayview station are filled with seniors from all over the city. I am not saying that Mr. Leung is definitely going to win, but it is going to be a lot harder for Mrs. Finlay this time around.
    11 04 19 rp
    The time is right for a Green landslide in Willowdale!!! All the conditions are in place... Oh, they have no candidate? ... OK then....The time is ripe for a Marxist-Leninist landslide--- tell you what let me get back to you.
    11 04 19 will87
    Might have gone PC at one point in time, but that time is well in the past. Despite the CPC putting resources into a few ridings bordering Willowdale they don't seem to think they can knock of Finlay and they are right. There's no reason to think that she won't win the riding with the same plurality again.
    11 04 17 mikeb
    Chungsen Leung has switched to Willowdale from running in Richmond Hill. He may do better than the last Conservative candidate, but it is an uphill battle against Martha Hall Findlay. She now has some roots in the community after winning last election and the previous by-election. She also has good name recognition.
    11 03 30 MH
    Not since the Reform Party undermined the PC's in the 1993 election have the Liberals been threatened here. Even in 2008, when there was considerable Liberal apathy and Martha Hall Findlay's vote fell 7,000 short of what Jim Peterson's had been two years earlier, the Conservatives were unable to mount a strong challenge. Will they manage to do it this time with the fourth different candidate in five years? It seems unlikely unless the Liberal vote in Toronto collapses completely, and so far there is little or no evidence of that. Right now this looks like a slam-dunk for Hall Findlay.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    The Liberals have had little difficulty winning this in the past three elections and whatever happens this time around, I don't expect this to change. Add to the fact Martha Hall Findlay could very well be a darkhorse in the next Liberal leadership race. Despite the fact most people thought the idea of her running for Liberal leadership was a joke in 2006, she ran a pretty impressive campaign. In addition the type of demographics that would flip this to the Tories are not large enough in numbers anyways.
    11 02 01 Gladstone
    MHF is quite the popular MP in Willowdale and won't have to sweat to hang on to this seat. She benefits from the rapid condoization of the riding combined with young downtowners moving up for (relatively) cheaper homes.
    09 11 09
    You can't compare a by election to a regular election as far as turnout is concerned and figure on that many people voting Tory would happen again. The people don't vote based on red or blue here, they tend to vote based on what is good for their pocket books and souls. That means a combination of a tax bribe and voting for somebody they feel good about. As there is no traction about taxes federally, and not many people in this riding feel good about Steven Harper, the choice is MHF.
    Maybe if the Tories parachuted in a softer gentler person, under a less combative leader then Harper, they'd win this riding. Until then, its not going to happen against MHF.
    09 09 05 A.S.
    Willowdale isn't *that* purely municipally right-leaning--John Filion's a Miller ally--and the provincial PC strength has been skewed by superior-candidate/campaign circumstances. At heart, it's just the ultimate Toronto-Liberal-moderate kind of riding; and galloping condo construction hasn't affected that status, just shuffled the configurations around a little. Even the substantial Jewish voting base isn't terribly ‘Asper Tory’ by nature. And with MHF as an Iggy kingmaker, you'd be a fool to bet on anyone else now.
    09 08 30 Stevo
    Provincially this is a swing riding and municipally it votes for right-leaning councillors and mayoral candidates (union leftist David Miller didn't do well here), however federally Willowdale is rock-solid Liberal especially with the strong Martha Hall Findley.
    09 08 29 R.O.
    Well i'm predicting Martha hall Findlay holds the seat it wouldn't of taken a meltdown for the liberals to lose this one if you look thru the numbers . the numbers look like this in both the 06 and 08 elections the conservatives got around 16000 votes here and in the by-election martha won the seat with only 13000 votes so if the conservatives had managed better turnout during the 2008 by-election here they actually could of won the seat based on the fact her vote was so low then and they in theroy had more supporters in the riding than the votes she got in that by-election. but anyways just though that was an interesting statistical fact about the numbers here but since its toronto riding and urban its likely to stay liberal.
    09 08 27 OgtheDim
    It would take a Liberal meltdown of enormous proportions for Martha Hall Findlay to lose this red bastion.

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