Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Kildonan-St. Paul

Prediction Changed
2009-09-19 14:10:00

Constituency Profile


Andres, Victor

Devine, Rachelle

Hiebert, Eduard

Ryall, Brett

Smith, Joy

Weinberg, Alon David

Joy Smith

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • winnipeg-north-centre (39/162 Polls)
  • winnipeg-north-st-paul (123/161 Polls)
  • winnipeg-transcona (5/178 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 25 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    With the NDP numbers up a little and Liberal numbers up a lot relative to '08, expect a race more like '04 or '06. Still think the CPC will hold it but much closer race.
    11 04 11 Tony Ducey
    Joy Smith holds this. Not a cabinet minister but maybe one of the most visible members of Harper's backbenches.
    11 04 03 C.A.B.
    Joy Smith did narrowly win here in 2004, and on the back of what had been a strong result for the Alliance in 2000, both pre- and post-redistribution. Moreover, her Liberal opponent in both 2004 and 2006 has chosen not to face her again, which is very telling. Both the Liberals and the NDP have bigger fish to fry in Winnipeg: both Winnipeg South (where Duguid is now running) and Saint-Boniface are more alluring targets for the Liberals, and the NDP will likely throw everything they have at regaining hallowed Winnipeg North. The fact that, a week into the campaign, nobody has yet been nominated to run against Smith says it all.
    11 03 29 M. Lunn
    While not as Conservative as other parts of the province, it does include some Conservative strongholds like River East. More importantly, the left will be split between the Liberals and NDP while the bedroom communities and countryside beyond Winnipeg will go Tory in a landslide and their massive margins outside the city boundaries pretty much gives them a lock here even if they narrowly lose the portions in the city proper.
    08 10 02 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Though we can not see Joy Smith losing, she should get fewer votes. Recall that the Liberals rejected Leslie Hughes candidacy but she was still on the ballot as a Liberal. Though most of those lost votes went NDP (3900 votes) some went to Joy Smith and it will be interesting to see how many of those votes she will keep.
    09 09 12 A.S.
    Judging from '04 and '06, K-StP could still be in play if Iggy gets his tiller straight in the 'Peg; of course, to extrapolate from Joy Smith's '08 result is totally messed up by the Liberal withdrawal situation (though it's noteworthy how efficiently the Liberal vote disintegrated with said withdrawal). Dunno whether that and/or an Orthodox Jewish ?Asper Tory? E-day-avoidance tactic explains an astronomic 77.6% of the Group 2 special-ballot vote going to Smith, though...
    09 08 27 wyatt
    Joy Smith continues to gain votes here each election, and took 53% last time out. She'll hold this seat for sure.
    09 08 27 JJ
    MP Joy Smith has a decent profile and is well-known here. Her parliamentary work with stopping sex trafficking has gained national attention in the media. She garnered a strong margin of victory in 2008, and despite noteworthy challenges from both the Liberals and NDP in the past, she has managed to pull through every time. CPC hold.
    09 08 26 Sean P.F.
    Joy Smith is a popular and visible MP in Kildonan-St.Paul. She will win re-election without much effort come the next election.
    09 08 24 Observer
    Even without a Liberal candidate, the NDP could not win. I am pretty confident the Conservatives will remain leading Kildonan-St. Paul.

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