Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-26 14:08:00

Constituency Profile


Gibson, Janine

Hayward, Terry

Lim, Ric

Mackling, Al

Reimer, David

Toews, Vic

Hon. Vic Toews

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • churchill (11/166 Polls)
  • provencher (173/196 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 03 C.A.B.
    The Liberals won here in 1997, which seems unbelievable today, but I think it can be explained if you look at the vote tally. After all, the PCs did quite well in Manitoba that year, and even here they were able to get their deposit back (with 16% of the vote). Reform, for their part, were five points behind Liberal incumbent David Iftody. In other words, good old-fashioned vote splitting. Once that factor was eliminated with the collapse of the PC vote in 2000, Vic Toews won easily. And as his subsequent tallies have shown, though he may have his share of enemies, they certainly don't seem to live in Provencher.
    11 03 31 Flatland Man
    The announcement that Al Mackling former Manitoba NDP Justice Minister will be running as the federal NDP candidate here for Provencher. It will certainly make some of the dialogue and debates more interesting in this riding as Toews of course was a federal Justice Minister. Toews should still win handily and we may see some vote splitting between Hayward and Mackling but the race should still have some intrigue now as there are three relatively strong candidates (despite an assured CPC victory). The addition of Mackling is interesting and his appointment was most likely because of a lack of any local NDP candidate. While he is a parachute candidate he will still draw some attention for waving the old NDP flag and he will add intelligence and factual arguments to the discourse.
    11 03 29 M. Lunn
    As much as the opposition despises Vic Toews, he has gotten over 60% in each of the last three elections, so easy Tory win here.
    11 03 26 Flatland Man
    Terry Hayward is the new Liberal candidate and he should do a lot better than the third place finish of the Liberals in the last election. He is a well established former agricultural policy maker and is well connected and brings some political clout to the race.
    Vic Toews however will still win this race handily. Despite election fraud, sex scandals, and more Toews only gains more votes. Shows how the people of this riding don't really care who or what is running they will always vote conservative/western populist.
    09 08 25 Sean P.F.
    Southern, Rural Manitoba is Conservative country. Expect an easy victory for the Tories come election day.

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