Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-26 14:08:00

Constituency Profile


Bezan, James

Geisler, Duncan

Palsson, Sean

Winstone, Don

James Bezan

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • churchill (4/166 Polls)
  • provencher (5/196 Polls)
  • selkirk-interlake (190/195 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 03 C.A.B.
    This is obviously one of those legacy seats for the NDP - they haven't actually won here since 1980. That's right - they fell short even in their banner year of 1988. If the Ed Schreyer run in 2006 didn't prove that today's NDP can't win here anymore, the results last time certainly did. James Bezan won with an impressive 60% of the vote in 2008, with a whopping 36-point margin over the NDP. As for the Liberals, who were able to come up the middle in 1993, they lost their deposit. This doesn't look like anything other than a Tory hold for the foreseeable future.
    11 03 29 M. Lunn
    Although the NDP has its pockets of support, the Conservatives/Alliance have won by double digits in every election since 2000 and in 1997 the Reform + PC got roughly the same as the Liberals + NDP, however the former two have merged while the latter two have not. Either way, the Tories should get at least 45% and probably over 50% and maybe even as high as 2/3.
    09 08 26 Observer
    When a former MP, Premier, and Governor General cannot defeat a mere incumbent MP, as it happened in 2006, it means there is any contest here. Conservative landslide victory.
    09 08 25 Sean P.F.
    Southern, Rural Manitoba is Conservative country. Expect an easy victory for the Tories come election day.

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