Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Winnipeg South

Prediction Changed
2011-04-28 08:22:00

Constituency Profile


Bruinooge, Rod

Duguid, Terry

Gaudreau, Dave

McIntyre, Caitlin

Rod Bruinooge

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • winnipeg-south (137/165 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    11 04 25 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Liberals are running 4 points down? More like 1 point down nationally and 10 points up in the praries compared to '08. The NDP surge in the praries is at the expense of the CPC, which are down 12 point compared to '08. With Liberal support concentrated in places like Winnipeg, they should be able to pick up this one.
    11 04 24 rlb
    The Liberals had rightly targeted this riding at the outset. Bruinooge is a weak MP who inexplicably seems to relish in the fact that he has cultivated a reputation as a nutbar evangelical conservative. This should make Bruinooge vulnerable, given that this area can best be described as a Red Tory riding whose residents are generally not aligned with the views of a Social Conservative.
    That being said, Bruinooge has appreciably pulled ahead in the sign wars over the past week. Early momentum by Duguid seems to have waned as Liberal numbers have plummeted nationally. Rod will hold on to this seat for one more term. Safe to put this one in the Conservative column.
    11 04 22 jimjeff
    Lets do the math people. Bruinooge won in 2008 by 14% over the liberal candidate who was an established brand in the community. In 2011, with the Conservatives running about 2 points above their 08 numbers, NOT TO MENTION the Liberals are running about 4 points below their 08 numbers, it begs the question why this seat is considered too close to call while South Centre is a Lock!
    11 04 19 M. Lunn
    As a relatively affluent riding, this is a centre-right, not centre-left riding. In the 90s, the Liberals were more fiscally conservative while the Reform/Alliance party was seen as too extreme. Also most polls show the Tories polling at close to what they got last election in Manitoba so with a 14 point lead, they would only be endanger of losing here if they were polling in the low 40s in Manitoba. Also much of the growth is on the southern end of the riding which tends to be the most favourable part for the Tories.
    11 04 16 Flatland Man
    Liberals are really focusing their efforts on a riding they can take, which they believe to be Winnipeg South. They say their efforts in Winnipeg Centre and North seem to be quite stable and they believe this to be their next best target. Expect a close race with a possible LPC win here as Bruinooge is not the CPCs most visible or best MP of the lot within Winnipeg.
    11 04 03 M.Lunn
    A centre-right riding that was largely uncomfortable with the Tories and their predecessors in the Reform/Alliance prior to 2006. The Liberals were also more centre-right under the Chretien era too so as the Liberals move to the left and the Tories become less right wing it is not surprise they have gained here. Still this could easily swing back to the Liberals if the campaign goes in their favour. It is the Tories to lose at this point.
    11 04 01 WpgReader
    If the NDP stay away and their few thousands votes collapse, this could be very interesting indeed. Liberals will work hard here and it's a natural Liberal riding. Bruinooge is a back bench, pro-lifer with no profile.
    11 04 01 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    If the recent Nanos poll is any indication, the Liberals have been doing better in the praries and this is at the expense of both the NDP and CPC. Considering that Liberal support is concentrated, particularly in Winnipeg and you can see how this could be close.
    11 03 28 jim
    Almost too close to call , but I see the Liberals taking this seat back thanks to the strong candidate. It will be within a couple hundred votes.
    11 03 27 Marco Ricci
    ‘According to a new poll by Probe Research for the Winnipeg Free Press, Winnipeg South is one of a small handful of Manitoba ridings that could be up for grabs.’
    11 03 26 Political Junkie
    Bruinooge has to be careful this time. I don't think that Duguid will be the pushover some are making him out to be. Bruinooge has to work hard and he has to use his tactical skill to win this riding by a safe margin. This will be closer than 2008 but I would still have to give the nod to Bruinooge.
    11 03 26
    The Liberals have a candidate who is once again committed to the riding, after the previous Bruinooge shockers the Liberals have rededicated their efforts here in Winnipeg South. The Liberals are once again polling reasonably well in Winnipeg and as it stands is leaning very slightly towards the Liberals right now. Bruinooge simply has not done a lot for people in the riding as MP and a stronger Liberal leader should push this slightly over the edge, especially once the Liberal TV campaign gets rolling.
    11 03 25 Old Fin Flon
    Terry Duguid is a perfectly fine candidate for the liberals but hardly a star and no where near as prominent as previous losers Loewen and Alcock. He is himself a two time loser to Joy Smith and a riding hopper. On the other hand, Rod Bruinooge is a good candidate, a good campaigner and has been a two time giant killer. His vote totals in the last election exceeded the Liberal and New Democrat votes combined. Lastly there will be no Liberal boost from non-permanent university students who are likely to be heading home before the election. Thus, unless something goes very wrong for the conservatives nationally, Winnipeg South can be safely coloured blue.
    11 01 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Previously we would have cast a cautious nod to the Conservatives here but the recent victory for the Liberals in Winnipeg North would seem to suggest that they may have a few tricks up their collective sleeves. With a high profile candidate this is one to watch. We expect Rod Bruinooge (and others) to become far more visible over the next few months. We're keeping an eye on this one.
    10 10 22 Acer
    Duguid has been campaigning for more than a year, and Rod isn't as visible. Rod's brand of Conservatism also isn't particularly popular in a highly educated riding (UofM). Cuts to the census and similar issues haven't helped either. If Ignatieff has a sold campaign look for the Liberals to take back Winnipeg South.
    09 09 25 firstpastthepost
    Bruinooge has increased his vote take in this riding substantively in every election since he first ran in 2004. Other ridings with repeat incumbents in Winnipeg which have already been declared on this website have vote capture percentages within a few points of Bruinooge?s 48.8%. For example, Winnipeg South Centre 42.3%, Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia 53.8%, Kildonan-St. Paul 53.4%, Winnipeg Centre 48.9%. Unless the Conservative campaign collapses in an epic way, this seat is a hold for the Conservatives and should be moved out of the ?too close to call? category.
    09 09 20 buckley
    In the 2008 election Bruinooge won this seat with a margin of over 5700 votes against his Liberal opponent, John Loewen. Loewen, a former PC MLA for the area, had prior political cache in the riding. The new Liberal candidate, Terry Duguid, is new to the riding after running two unsuccessful campaigns against Conservative MP Joy Smith in the riding of Kildonan -- St. Paul. This, combined with Bruinooge’s campaign machine will result in a Conservative hold in this riding.
    09 08 27 wyatt
    From 111 votes to more than 5,800, Bruinooge really opened up a lead here in '08. With nearly 50% of the vote, he'll keep his seat.
    09 08 27 JJ
    Rod Bruinooge surprised many when he won victory in 2006. Since then, he has solidified his margin of victory. CPC hold.

    Navigate to Canada 2011 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

    Canada Federal Election - 2011
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Milton Chan, 1999-2011 - Email Webmaster