Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Souris-Moose Mountain

Prediction Changed
2009-08-24 10:18:00

Constituency Profile


Arthur, Allan

Borrowman, Gerald

Deptuck, Bob

Komarnicki, Ed

Ed Komarnicki

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • souris-moose-mountain (164/164 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 17 C.A.B.
    As noted, this was a dependable PC seat even during the NDP heyday; it's been so long since they won here that the last time they did, they were still the CCF. The disgraced former PC premier, Grant Devine, ran here as an independent in 2004 and actually came within ten points of winning, and that's the closest anyone has come to taking the seat from the Tories/Reform/Alliance since 1993, when the Liberals won here. In 2008, they lost their deposit. And in 2011, it's a certain Tory hold.
    11 03 29 M. Lunn
    Along with Cypress Hills-Grasslands, this was a Tory riding even back during the days of Tommy Douglas. It was settled heavily by many homesteaders from the US midwest and its voting patterns seem to more resemble that of North Dakota than Saskatchewan until recently when Saskatchewan also started to swing rightward.
    11 03 26 WAC
    EP's submission struck me as odd, especially this part... ‘[the NDP] cedes its traditional territory in rural Saskatchewan like this one’. This is and has always been a staunchly Conservative riding. I believe the last time it voted NDP was 1957. It has gone Liberal a few times since - but I would hardily call this the NDP traditional territory.
    11 03 25 Stewwey
    There is not a snowballs chance in the underworld anybody but Ed is going to win this seat. He won with over half the vote in the last election and I only see this increasing. This is one of the only area's of the country where the reccession did not hit. People here just kept on going. Lots of oilfield, rednecked voters here!!
    09 08 24 EP
    With the NDP becoming more and more of an urban party, it cedes its traditional territory in rural Saskatchewan ridings like this one. This leaves the Conservative Party with no competition. Unless a regional dissent party appears and starts to field federal candidates, this rural Saskatchewan riding wills stay in the “solidly Conservative column for the foreseeable future.

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