Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Calgary Centre

Prediction Changed
2009-08-24 10:19:00

Constituency Profile


Hamilton, William

Montgomery, Donna Marlis

Pollock, Jennifer

Richardson, Lee

Lee Richardson

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • calgary-centre (141/263 Polls)
  • calgary-southwest (20/217 Polls)
  • calgary-west (88/261 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 24 WAC
    Predicting a Liberal or NDP win in Calgary Centre is beyond delusional.
    11 04 23 rp
    Going out on a limb here with an NDP prediction, when I was the riding this week, NDP lawnsigns vastly outnumbered any others. Perhaps Jack's coat tails will pull them along and make the orange blob grow in size.
    11 04 14 s. gainsbourg
    As the name suggests, this is the most dense/urban riding in Calgary, encompassing the downtown core and many condos/apartment blocks in the neighbourhoods to the south and west of downtown, where many young adults live; however this is generally only the case up to 17th avenue SW. The vast swath of land that this riding encompasses south of 17th avenue (all the way out to Glenmore Trail) captures nearly all of the wealthiest neighbourhoods in town (Elboya, Britannia, Mount Royal, Mayfair…), where multi-million dollar mansions are on practically every block. The chances of the Liberals or NDP picking up this seat were drastically lowered when the boundary lines were redrawn in 2003 with the introduction of Calgary Centre-North pushing Calgary Centre out of the neighbourhoods just north of downtown (Sunnyside/Kensington, which are very similar to the region from downtown to 17th avenue) and further south to fully encompass these posh neighbourhoods.
    The incumbent Conservative MP has had ample time to prove his uselessness as a backbencher, even racking up an expense account of over $550,000 in 2009 (the highest spender in Alberta).
    The Liberal candidate, although forceful in her attacks on the incumbent Calgary West MP when she was the Liberal candidate in that riding in 2006/2008, seemed to have little effect on the final vote. Given the demographics of this riding, it should be an easy Conservative hold.
    11 03 29 M. Lunn
    This is probably the least conservative of the Calgary ridings and includes much of the former territory of Joe Clark's former riding. In many ways it is more of a PC than Reform/Alliance riding unlike the suburban ridings which are more Reform/Alliance types. Either way this will still go Conservative as the NDP is too socialistic for Calgary and with much of the older population still remembering Pierre Trudeau's NEP, they will never vote Liberal even if they agree with them on most policies and considering those old enough to remember the NEP are most likely to vote this pretty much gives the Tories a lock on this.
    11 03 23 Calgary Red Tory
    Lee Richardson has been in a few ethical controversies and hasn't been very present in the riding. Jennifer Pollock will be a much stronger than heesung Kim. The Liberals will definitely improve their showing.
    09 09 13 Stevo
    I'm thinking Calgary-Centre will be much closer than last time. The riding has a fairly large gay community that, although not staunchly and universally leftist like their counterparts in Toronto or Montreal (yes, even gays in the West feel the same resentments towards Central Canada as their hetero counterparts, and they aren't necessarily uncomfortable with most aspects of CPC policy), they are certain to be angry at the CPC's outrageous quasi-sacking of Calgary-Nosehill's Diane Ablonczy (a woman arguably more popular in Calgary than the Prime Minister himself) simply for doing her job and awarding funding to a major revenue-generator in Toronto that happens to celebrate the gay community.
    Alberta's voters will begin to diversify their voting intentions, and the next election will demonstrate the precursors for that.
    09 08 27 kory haggert
    In Cal-centre Tory back bencher Lee Richardson will win again, no doubt, eh? But I find the race for 2nd place fascinating. Last go round Liberal Kim found 18% support with Green's Natalie Odd almost 17%.
    09 08 24 EP
    Regardless of the ups and downs of national trends, Alberta continues to favour the Conservative Party with 60% or more. There is no perfect storm in sight to move any Calgary riding away from the “solidly Conservative column any time soon.

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