Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-04-22 12:13:00

Constituency Profile


Duncan, Linda

Fehr, Andrew

Hastman, Ryan

Hunter, Kevan

Murphy, Kyle

Sinclair, Matthew

White, Christopher

Linda Duncan

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • edmonton-southeast (22/165 Polls)
  • edmonton-strathcona (214/261 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 21 John
    More and more polls are showing a surge in NDP support nationally, even putting them second ahead of the Liberals.
    This bodes well for the NDP campaign in Edmonton Strathcona.
    11 04 19 @mkyeg
    Over the past three elections, Edmonton-Strathcona voters have been remarkably consistent. The Conservative candidate earned 39.4%, 41.7% and 41.6% of the vote in 2004, 2006 and 2008 respectively. Meanwhile the combined Liberal and ND vote stayed similarly steady, at 52.8%, 50.3% and 51.6%, as did the Green vote at 6.5%, 5.9% and 6.4%.
    My thesis for the riding (in which I’m a resident) is simple and hardly unique: centre-left voters are predominantly concerned not with the national campaigns, but with determining which candidate in this riding is capable of beating the Conservative. In the past three elections it was nearly the only topic of conversation among centre-left voters I spoke with. Lifelong Liberals, NDs and former Progressive Conservatives spent most of the race handicapping who could defeat Rahim Jaffer, and voting accordingly. Their problem was that as handicappers, they could never agree.
    That all changed in 2006, when Linda Duncan decisively moved into 2nd place, which 35% of the vote, besting the Liberal by more than 7700 ballots.  She then immediately announced that she would run again in the next election. At that point, even lifelong Liberals agreed that their candidate in the next election did not stand the best chance of winning. Although the Liberals fielded a serious and well-qualified candidate with deep roots in the riding, they were able to hang on to just 9% of the votes, while Duncan’s share surged by 10-points, into first place.
    The Liberal approach in 2011 seems designed to entrench this outcome. They nominated a University student as a candidate, and did so only after the campaign had begun. There is little reason to believe that he will be able to retain 9% of the vote, much less add to it. I would suspect that Duncan could add about 4-points to her vote share from this alone.
    Is Duncan a polarizing figure? Yes. But whether she is a polarizing figure to centre-left voters in the riding is another story. It seems more reasonable to believe their votes remain consolidated with Duncan.
    I agree with other commenters who gave credit to Ryan Hastman’s work campaigning for the past two years, and to the resources his party is providing to his campaign. He’s a formidable challenger, and comes without Jaffer’s baggage. Could he win? Yes. But would I favour him to win given the dynamics within the riding? Not at all.
    11 04 20 Teddy Boragina
    The NDP has continued to maintain a strong enough presence in the polls in Alberta to win this seat.
    11 04 19 MF
    I think Linda Duncan will hold this. The Tory campaign here is apparently in disarray and not only will Liberals vote strategically again, but I expect a lot of the Green vote to shift NDP as well. It seems that university students will be voting in bigger numbers this year as well.
    11 04 17 R.O.
    I don't think its unusual for a candidate in a close race to ask the national campaign for assistance , not sure why people are making so much out of that i'm sure it happens often. this riding will still be very close on election day even if ndp somehow wins it have to be by margins similar to what Landslide Annie won by in Edmonton Centre . layton's strong debate performance may help ndp out in close ridings but they only won by 1% here in 08 so i suspect it remains a very close race till the end . the conservatives and Ryan Hastman will likely try hard till election day as ridings usually close and this is Alberta a province where tories have large lead in polls.
    11 04 17 JD
    It will be close, but Hastman should win by a couple of points. Outside of the NW corner of the riding where the U of A is, there seems to be very strong Conservtaive support.
    11 04 17
    The Globe and Mail moved this riding to leaning NDP this morning
    11 04 16 Stevo
    Just like Outremont, this one's done. Linda Duncan is going back to the House of Commons and with a fairly comfortable win. The Conservative 2006 sweep of Alberta will likely never be repeated, much to the CPC's chagrin.
    Next Alberta domino to fall, possibly as soon as the next election campaign: Calgary-Centre will go Liberal.
    11 04 15 SAPIG
    The Globe and Mail has moved its prediction from too close to call to leaning ND.
    11 04 14 John
    If the story in today's (April 14) online Globe and Mail is any indication, the Conservatives think their campaign is in trouble here.
    More evidence to suggest Linda Duncan will take this seat again.
    11 04 14 Marco Ricci
    I am going to predict an NDP win here. The Conservatives appear disorganized and on the run, and it looks like Linda Duncan is going to be able to coalesce the Liberals and NDP around her. Ryan Hastman admits that he is losing and is asking the national campaign for help:
    ‘We're giving it our best. But to be honest, we're losing. I need help,’ he wrote in the e-mail, first obtained by the Edmonton Journal, adding later: ‘This is going to be a tough race. Honestly if tomorrow was election day, we'd probably lose. The NDP are well organized, motivated and have a huge team. I see their campaign in action every day.’
    11 04 13 thatguy369
    This riding should have went PC in the last election but would have been for not, for the misgivings of Jaffer. This will be an interesting race....i have seen a lot of Ryan signs on the roadside and few Linda's....might be a sign of things to come....
    11 04 12 Marco Ricci
    The Liberals are running a 20-year old university student here.
    That does suggest that they are hoping the riding goes NDP to prevent a Conservative win, although officially the above article claims that the Liberals want Liberal voters to support the Liberal candidate. It's hard to know exactly what will happen with the Liberal vote because the Liberals appear to be a bit higher in Alberta under Ignatieff than under Dion, but their candidate here last time, Claudette Roy, was a much bigger name than the current Liberal candidate. Roy is a big name in the French and educational community in Alberta, yet she only received 9% of the vote. It will also be interesting to see where the 6% of Green voters from 2008 go. If some of them go to Duncan, she could benefit.
    11 04 10 Shawn
    I am calling this one for the NDP for three reasons. First, the visibility of the Duncan campaign in neighbourhood lawn signs and literature to my door suggests not only strong support, but superior campaign management. Second, the liberals have a placeholder candidate in a young student, who simply won't create the vote splitting dynamic that a stronger liberal candidate would. Third, Linda has been a visible and effective MP leading many people in the riding, like myself, who are not NDP supporters, to vote for Linda. Call this one NDP.
    11 04 09 Jack
    I am very much looking forward to seeing that NDP orange blob disappearing when I click on this site. The conservative party is going to pour money into this riding, to sweep the province. Last election I think that the conservatives were in the mindset that sweeping Alberta was their god given right. mark this one in the conservative column.
    11 04 08 Someguy
    It will be a close race, but I think Linda will pull off another win. In my area, I've seen quite a few Duncan lawn signs up, only one Hastman sign and no Liberal signs (although I admit I live near the university, where there are fewer Conservative supporters). The Liberal candidate is practically invisible. Hastman's campaign appears to be inept as well. See ‘Surprise visit reveals campaign turmoil’ -- http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/Surprise+visit+reveals+campaign+turmoil/4533668/story.html
    11 04 05 jimmydot
    I think it will be a close NDP win.... the main reason is the anyone but Harper vote... you will have people that don't support the NDP or what they stand for, but will vote for them here just to beat the Conservatives...
    11 04 05 A dude
    The Liberals seem to be gifting this one to the New Democrats. Running a 20-year old Grant-Mac polisci sophomore doesn't inspire confidence in the Liberal brand. Polls might be bleak for the NDP but people are aware that there is only one viable anti-Harper choice (and heck, some people in old Strathcona just like the NDP).
    Since 2000, the NDP vote-share in this riding has risen in three consecutive elections by at least 8.71 percentage points (9.02, 8.71 and 10.07, chronologically). This massive and sustained growth will have to hit a ceiling some time, but with the Liberals running a sacrificial lamb, I see no reason for that time to be now.
    11 04 05 daveberta
    If any riding in Alberta changes hands in this federal election, it will be Edmonton-Strathcona. It is the only riding represented by an opposition Member of Parliament and Conservatives have made it their goal to unseat NDP MP Linda Duncan, who defeated Conservative MP Rahim Jaffer by a slim 463 votes in 2008. After campaigning for two years, the Conservatives hope that candidate Ryan Hastman is the one who can do the job.
    As the NDP’s Environment Critic in Ottawa, Ms. Duncan has gone against the grain of other Alberta MP colleagues by criticizing the oil sands and its impact on the environment. In a campaign stop in Edmonton this weekend, NDP leader Jack Layton only briefly mentioned the environment, suggesting that he may have been avoiding the issue while in Alberta (he also did not take media questions while in the province).
    The Green Party has nominated Environmental Economics and Policy student Andrew Fehr, who faces the challenge of convincing Green-leaning voters that actually voting for a Green Party is a better choice than a strategic vote for Ms. Duncan. The Liberals have nominated University student Matthew Sinclair, who appears to be a non-factor in this contest.
    The highly polarized geopolitics of this riding have the Conservatives drawing strong support from polls in the east and NDP drawing strong support from polls in the west. Both candidates will lean heavy on financial and organizational support from their national parties, making this riding too close to call.
    The irony is that the NDP could increase their vote total across Edmonton at the same time they could lose the only riding they currently hold.
    11 04 03 M. Lunn
    With this being the only riding to deny the Tories a complete sweep of Alberta, no doubt they will put most of their resources into retaking this. Considering the NDP is not competitive in most Alberta ridings and the Tories have almost all Alberta ridings locked up, you can expect to see a lot of volunteers from other ridings for both parties. The NDP strength is in the western part of the riding where the university is and you have a lot of young unmarried renters while the Tories are more in the Eastern parts which is mostly your middle class families. The Eastern part of the riding includes the provincial riding of Edmonton-Mill Creek which has gone PC provincially in recent elections. Also with the university out of session this could help the Tories. At this point to close to call.
    11 04 02 J Keller
    Rahim Jaffer was the Con problem here last time. It's been solved in the most decisive way, by purging his entire family (his wife Helena Guergis).
    So Duncan ‘is no longer running against an unpopular MP.’ Also, there is a lot more pressure on the Tar Sands thanks to the new EU ban on dirty oil and more US corporations and states banning it too. That will polarize votes, bringing the rednecks out in force who would not have voted for Jaffer, for race reasons and otherwise. Anywhere in Alberta you have plenty of racists. We are talking, after all, about people who just don't care how many Arctic, coastal or island peoples they kill off with their emissions. Don't even care how many natives they kill downstream. Given a white candidate, it will not be difficult to swing this back to the Cons.
    The divided vote, Liberal and Green selfishness, Layton's open campaign against Tar Sands subsidies (this being a G20 global commitment actually, to eliminate not just Tar Sands but all fossil fuel subsidies), all make it less likely that Duncan can hang on. Layton would have to spend lots more time here to let Duncan win, but he's wasting his time in Halifax now. If he's worried about losing Halifax he's given up on Edmonton, one would have to assume.
    11 04 02 Brn2bru
    Just to repeat what's been said before. The fact that students will be out of residence will definitely be an advantage for Linda Duncan. I was present at the count the last time around when the Lister Hall poll stood out like a sore thumb with a huge conservative majority. Why? Rural students vote rural until they become urbanized. And don't forget, Linda's campaign is extremely well organized and focussed.
    11 03 31 Steve Smith
    I lost a few bucks betting on this one in 2008, but I'm prepared to predict that Duncan will be re-elected. In a race this close it's likely to come down to the ground game, and Duncan's got the typically well-organized (in target ridings, at least) NDP one. What Graham Thompson says here - http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/Surprise+visit+reveals+campaign+turmoil/4533668/story.html - matches what I've heard from other sources, and internal polling apparently has Duncan up by a narrow margin.
    Leaving this as TCTC for the time being is the right call, but I'm willing to bet that Duncan will squeak out a re-election.
    11 03 31 EdmontonWatcher
    Today's Edmonton Journal has another article critical of Ryan Hastman not being accessible to the media.
    Also, for the person who thought that Linda Duncan would suffer this time due to university not being in session, the poll counts for the polls on campus last time suggest that students who live in residence (generally the younger ones) tend to vote the way their parents do, or they vote Green or another non-traditional choice (e.g. Communist).
    11 03 31 Pennyfeather
    I can't help but think the following link says it all concerning the NDP's chances, not just in AB but really, in SK, as well. But, what the hey, they DO have as many QC MPs as they do from those other two provinces combined, I suppose:
    Anyhow, look for the Tories to come back here, and the bleed of the NDP vote in the West already noted by Nanos to continue.
    11 03 30 Shawn
    I think this one is too close to call right now. While this riding would normally lean conservative, Linda Duncan worked hard to defeat Rahim Jaffer last time and continued working as an MP. I normally do not vote NDP and would not want an NDP government but I respect the effort Linda has made in our riding and her overall professionalism. I suspect that there are many other voters in this riding who are not regular NDP voters but will support Linda Duncan.
    11 03 29 Marco Ricci
    A former Conservative staffer, Sebastien Togneri, who is under RCMP investigation was working on Ryan Hastman's campaign, and had to be axed when the controversy got all over the Edmonton news today.
    While this controversy causes some problems for the Conservatives, it is too soon to know whether it will determine the outcome in this riding. But it does allow Linda Duncan to raise some questions about the judgment of Ryan Hastman for allowing this man to be on his staff, and allows her to bring up ethical questions about the Conservatives. We'll see how this continues to develop.
    11 03 29 I live here
    So, we got our first indicator of how important Stephen Harper views, Alberta, Edmonton and,in particular, getting Edmonton - Strathcona back. He flew in for a rally in Beaumont?! The nearest spot to the Edmonton International Airport for a quick in-and-out. Then there is the embarrassment of having Sebastian Togneri, briefly, on the campaign team. Then, Hastman, a former Day and Harper staffer, has all the appearance of a parachute candidate. Plus, he has had to do his fund raising in Calgary. Not a good start for the Conservative effort to displace Duncan, who has a strong local presence in the constituency. She is, for example, seen regularly at Strathcona Market, shopping, and that counts for a lot here.
    11 03 29 Calev
    Duncan has a fight on her hands. She has a few things going for her. First this is the most left leaning riding in the province. Second, she has the benefit of incumbency and large name recognition. Finally she should have the support of most committed NDP voters in Edmonton insuring that she remains the voice of opposition from Alberta. The biggest problem is she has a lot of things stacking up against her. First, the longer any amount of coalition talk (true or false) remains in the news it will hurt her and will motivate most people opposed to it against her. Second, although most students cannot vote in the riding, they could volunteer, but with the election coinciding with finals and the end of the term, many students will be too busy to volunteer. This combined with the NDP saying that they are focusing on several ridings in Alberta and this could draw support away from Strathcona to other regions. Finally, she is no longer running against an unpopular MP. This was a part of her victory and could play an important part in the election. If I had to guess the outcome, I would say Cons by the smallest margin.
    11 03 29 WAC
    As Graham Hicks writer for the Edmonton Sun pointed on in a blog post on March 28, the fact that Stephen Harper recently announced that los Federales will have nothing to do with Edmonton's attempt at getting EXPO 2017 might have a negative impact on Hastman's campaign. If all politics is local...
    11 03 29 Earl
    I am not from Edmonton-Strathcona but I spend a large amount of my week on the University campus and interact with many students. I agree that the university students do impact the vote and it may be more difficult for the NDP because of the timing of this election. However; I have heard that many will be voting in advanced polls in order to support Linda Duncan before they leave for the summer.
    I have also heard some conservative-leaning students choosing not to vote this turn. While the local candidate seems to be respected, there seems to be a distrust of Harper and a worry if he gets a majority. The recent news of Sebastien Togneri working on Ryan Hastman's campaign may also taint the perception of him being an honest guy as well.
    11 03 28 M
    I used to live in this riding up until Rahim Jaffer's fall from grace. From what I have seen and heard, Ryan Hastman is one of the hardest-working candidates in the country. He has been knocking on doors and forming his own connection with community groups such as churches, business association and immigrant groups. Another thing to consider is that many of the students from U of A will be done final exams before May 2nd. Those who live in apartments and student residences won't be able to stay just for the election because of deadlines on when they have to be out. The left-wing vote is definitely bolstered by student votes so the timing of the election may be enough for the NDP candidate to lose votes.
    11 03 26 John
    As far back as I can remember, this riding has been won by a plurality rather than a majority.
    One thing that gives Duncan an edge is that she is the incumbent and has some name recognition. The Conservative candidate is new. Further, at the provincial level, the PCs are losing support to the Wild Rose Alliance, and some voters will lump the federal and provincial parties together in the same category. Liberals are still looking for a candidate, so they will be a bit late out of the gate.
    For me, it's a toss up between NDP and too close to call. I'll go out on a limb and say the riding will stay NDP this time around.
    11 03 25 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    We have another one of our conspiracy theory/political strategy. The Liberals have not selected a candidate yet. Might they be moving slowly on this? Perhapse they relaize that a stong campaign on their part in Edmonton-Strathcona will unseat Linda Duncan and help the Conservatives, bringing them closer to a majority. We wonder if the Liberals will only ‘find’ a candidate late in the campaign...interesting speculation but...
    11 03 25 Marco Ricci
    This riding is on the Conservative list of top targets for this election. Harper wants Alberta to be all blue, and dislikes having one orange spot in the middle of it. The Conservatives nominated their candidate quite a while ago to replace Rahim Jaffer. The question is whether Conservative support is likely to go any higher than it has in the past. In 2008 it was basically the same as it was in 2006, even though the Cons gained nationally. If the Cons gain nationally again in 2011, they won't necessarily make huge increases here. As for Duncan, her challenge is to keep the Liberal voters she attracted to the NDP column last time. In 2008 the NDP beat the Liberals in popular vote in Alberta. In 2011 the NDP appears to be behind the Liberals in Alberta polls. If more people vote Liberal in 2011 than did in 2008, Duncan could lose the Liberal-NDP alliance she built.
    11 03 24 odude22
    My friend below is mistaken. Students living in dorms on Campus do not become voters of the riding the University is in. They vote in their home riding. Only students living off campus become voters for that riding. If one does have a residence off campus - most of them will be sticking around for the summer.
    11 03 24 Aniconist
    Part of me doesn't really believe we're talking about this, but since we are: coalition speculation is absolutely the kiss of death for the incumbent in this riding. Ed-Strath voters who went NDP last time were sputtering with rage that the party might form a coalition with the hated Libs, and even whispers to that effect this time will ensure a rapid flight to Tory havens.
    11 03 23 Ryan
    Originally, this would have been a toss-up, as the Liberal and Green vote would have coalesced around the NDP vote. However, one thing is vital now that the actual election is likely to occur in May - the University of Alberta students that were vital to Linda Duncan's will be out of their dorms and residences by the end of April, and will be spread out in all the other ridings, especially in rural Alberta.
    Additionally, Linda Duncan's popularity among older, blue-collar workers could take a hit depending on what the national NDP does. If Layton tones up the rhetoric against the oil sands Duncan could suffer greatly for it.
    11 03 23 odude22
    Though there is very strong Conservative support in this area, and the fact that federally this riding has extremely strong right-wing roots (except for a brief period during the Trudeau government). This riding does have strong NDP roots provincially. The NDP have held this seat from 1986-1993, 1997-present) and the Liberals held this seat from 1993-1997. These strong left-wing roots will certainly help Duncan. Also, her high popularity and the fact that she is the incumbent probably doesn't hurt her... ;P - haha.
    11 02 28
    The people who are saying that Linda Duncan will be defeated because she says things out of the Alberta mainstream are missing the fact that Edmonton-Strathcona isn't in the Alberta mainstream--that's why it elected an NDP MP. The Conservatives will be pouring all of their resources from across Alberta into this seat, for obvious reasons, but Jaffer always won on a Liberal/NDP split and most Grit voters will almost certainly vote to keep Duncan.
    10 12 16 John
    Linda Duncan is the incumbent, and that is a big plus in any riding.
    10 04 09 Sapig
    Ryan Hastman is Rahim Jaffer 2.0, and the voters of Strathcona are smart enough to recognize that. Linda will win again by a slightly larger number than last time around.
    09 11 11 R.O.
    One has to wonder if Linda Duncan is trying to make herself a target by opposing or supporting things not that popular in her home province. first it was the short lived opposition coalition which was extremely unpoular in alberta and surely a vote loser there. then most recently during a free vote she was the only mp from Alberta to vote against scraping the long gun registry which was never well liked in Alberta even in the urban ridings. i think by being on the wrong side of these issues by alberta standards she is making herself an easy target for the conservatives who could easily win back this seat. and have found a good candidate in Ryan Hastman to do just that as there is alot of conservative votes in this riding. as for Rahim Jaffer now that he's no longer mp i don't see him being much of an issue here in future elections. the only way i see this seat staying ndp is if there is some kind of secret deal between the liberals not to run a serious candidate or something along that line other than that it take some sort of miracle to keep this one ndp.
    09 10 04 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Everybody hates Jaffer, should be a title for a sitcom. Every electionprediction-go-round someone brings up how Jaffer is going to bring the Conservative party down because he's not in tune with conservative values or something to that order. But here's the kicker, he lost in '08 with MORE votes than what he won with in '04! How is that possible? We'll tell you: steady decline of Liberal votes and a steady increase in NDP votes. It seems that the left of center voters have coalesced around Ms Duncan and it isn't likely to dissipate so quickly. A new CPC candidate has to get themselves known and chip away at the left. We're not saying Linda has it in the bag, we're saying it's going to be a real CPC/NDP battle field, especially with the Liberals marginalized.
    09 09 30 CM
    This riding is a Conservative riding by nature. There are more Conservative voters than NDP voters. Last election many Conservatives did not vote or protest voted as a result of Mr. Jaffer. With a new candidate that resonates with Conservatives, most of these voters will return their vote to the Conservatives. Ms. Duncan will lose votes from her base who view the attempt of a coaltion Liberal government unfavourably. Ms. Duncan will also lose votes from swing voters who also resent the coaltion. Mr. Laytons numbers are sinking in Alberta and The Prime Ministers are on a steady climb.
    09 09 26 John
    This riding is usually won on a plurality, so Duncan doesn't need an Alberta style landslide to keep the seat. Further, I expect the national party will put some resources into keeping this seat. While it could be close, I expect the NDP will keep this seat.
    09 09 16 David Y.
    The former Conservative M.P. here, Rahim Jaffer, has been charged with D.U.I. and drug possession.
    Wasn't he the one who sponsored ads late in the 2008 campaign denouncing NDP Leader Jack Layton as 'favouring the legalization of marijuana'?
    I wonder if the Conservative 'Get Tough On Criminals' mentality is going to include one of their own!
    If this doesn't give the NDP a big boost here, I'm not sure what would.
    09 09 11 nc
    Linda had an amazing campaign here last election, her vote wil only go up. she will be provided with a very strong student backing!
    09 09 03 Stevo
    As much as the Conservatives would dearly love to once again occupy every Alberta seat, I am inclined to think that the NDP desire - and necessity - of keeping this seat is even greater. The Liberal vote here will continue to collapse as the NDP bring more voters on board to ensure that Alberta retains at least one opposing voice from the province. Linda Duncan will almost assuredly push her margin of victory past the 1000-vote mark.
    09 09 01 Nick J Boragina
    This one involves math. The NDP needs to take a certain percentage of the vote the Tories get (in this case, 19.23%) That means, as an example, if the Tories get a million votes province wide, the NDP needs 192,300 votes province wide to win this riding, assuming the parties remain strong and weak where they were in 2008. Using this mathematical formula, I see the NDP and Tories swinging back and forth in this riding, where sometimes the NDP has the votes they need and sometimes they dont. It will be very interesting to keep an eye on this as the election continues.
    09 09 01 pollwerker
    The NDP are generally impossible to dislodge once they get a foothold in a riding like they have here. Duncan is unlikely to be defeated any time soon. Voters are likely to ask themselves if Alberta needs one more Tory MP.
    09 09 01 binriso
    The most important seat for the NDP to keep in the whole country (except maybe Outremont) to give them a foothold in Alberta and have a stronger claim to being a national party. They’d better damn well win this one next election.
    09 08 27 wyatt
    My understanding was that Harper wasn't upset with the voters, but with Jaffer. Regardless of who the Tories run here, you can bet they'll have the full backing of Tory HQ.
    09 08 27 R.O.
    Furious i doubt maybe more surprised that the ndp did actually take the riding in the end as Rahim Jaffer had been a quality mp for the riding. But the collapse of the liberal vote under dion in this riding in 08 allowed for the ndp candidate Linda Duncan to win. she has now been mp for just about a year and Rahim Jaffer is not going to be running here again and conservatives nominated Ryan Hastman as there new candidate. so its a little tough to say what might happen here as its from a safe ndp or conservative seat at the moment. we also don't know what the liberals are doing here yet either as a stronger liberal candidate could create some vote spliting in the riding although with a new leader there new candidate is almost guaranteed to do a bit better than the last one but the riding remains a ndp/ conservative race but too close to call for the time being.
    09 08 26 Observer
    Harper may be furious with Edmonton Strathcona electors but much more furious with Mr. Harper and the Conservatives are the voters of this riding. Edmonton-Strathcona is the most progressive riding of Alberta and the left-wing vote is united behind Linda Duncan and the NDP.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    Harper was apparently furious at losing this riding, and the Tories will devote some serious dough here to get it back. The electorate will also take note at an opposition member's inability to bring investment to their riding, and will want to get back on the radar in Ottawa.
    09 08 25 NorthernRaven
    The Conservatives got lazy in Alberta last time. This time after a hard fought nomination battle, Ryan Hastman will have a strong team, and the help of Conservatives from Edmonton's 7 other ridings. All he has to do is recapture the 3000 votes lost by Jaffer, which should be accomplishable. He will also benefit from the NDP-Lib Coalition backlash from the fall, which will be a theme during the election campaign.
    09 08 24 Observer
    Last time, Alberta NDP spent all resources and time campaigning for Linda Duncan. Jack Layton toured the riding several times. The NDP was helped by a low profile and scandal hit MP, Rahim Jaffer. If Conservatives want the riding again, they have to choose a star candidate, otherwise it will remain NDP.
    09 08 24 Left-Pragmatist
    This riding will stay NDP. It was not so much a collapse of the Liberal vote last time as that many Liberal voters saw that there was an electable alternative to the Conservatives and voted strategically. With a victory under her belt, Duncan can count on even more such votes in the next election from others who weren't quite as convinced. If there was a collapse of the Liberal vote, it was in 2006, when the NDP took second place, and gave them momentum.
    Barring a surprise star candidate for the Conservatives, the NDP will keep this riding.
    09 08 18 B.O.
    This is an NDP riding. Duncan won by 400 votes last time. She won largely due to a collapse of the Liberal vote. The riding is too close to call for the next election. Whether Duncan can win again depends on how many Liberal votes she can keep and how many votes she can get from incumbency.

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