Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Delta-Richmond East

Prediction Changed
2009-08-26 14:08:00

Constituency Profile


Beesley, Alan

Findlay, Kerry-Lynne

Laird, Duane

Monds, Jeff

Shavluk, John

Slater, Nic

John Cummins

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • delta-south-richmond (115/235 Polls)
  • richmond (66/206 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 14 binriso
    Resigned for money issues? Why doesnt the whole party Conservative resign after lying about not going to run a deficit then? But seriously itll probably be a fair bit closer but an easy CPC win.
    11 04 14 Tony Ducey
    Controversy over the CPC candidate won't change things here, easy CPC hold.
    11 03 30 M. Lunn
    Even without John Cummins this is generally a conservative riding. The Delta portion is fairly affluent, white, and with a large senior population thus a favourable demographic for the Tories, while the Richmond has a large Chinese population thus was more competitive not too long ago but the Tory gains amongst Chinese voters should at least even between the Tories and Liberals if not favouring the Tories and combined with the massive margins in the Delta portion, this stays Tory.
    11 03 30 Tony
    What we need to figure out is this: How much of Cummins' massive victories in the past can be attributed to his being a Conservative and how much of it can be attributed to him just being John Cummins, a popular riding man? As the local candidacy fiasco demonstrates, the local Conservative Party machinery isn't very well organized. Then again, since the Liberals don't even have a candidate yet, they aren't either.
    11 03 29 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    Unless the Conservatives can get their act together, the Liberals could well snatch this seat for a term.
    11 03 29 Globe and Mail
    From Globe and Mail today:
    The opening shots of the federal election campaign in B.C. came from Tories firing on Tories in seats held by Tory MPs, according to reports of regional newspapers across the province.
    Caustic exchanges between Tories provided strong headlines in local newspapers reporting on ridings held by long-time Conservative stalwarts Stockwell Day, Chuck Strahl and John Cummins, who announced on Mar. 12 they would not seek re-election.
    ‘Party quick to toss Saip under bus,’ stated a headline in The Delta Optimist atop a column on the Conservative Party’s nomination to replace John Cummins in Delta-Richmond. Dale Saip, who had served more than two decades on the Delta school board, was forced to give up the nomination that he had won after publicity about his personal finances. ‘Given he applied and was accepted to stand for the nomination, I can see three scenarios at play here: Either he didn't disclose his financial history, he did so but the party didn't catch it or it was aware of the situation but didn't think it was a big deal until stuff started hitting the fan this week. My guess is it's the latter, although, given the second and third scenarios don't reflect well on the Conservatives, I'm betting they opt for the first one. They've already thrown him under the bus on this one, so why not back it up on him too?’ wrote Ted Murphy in The Delta Optimist . Mr. Murphy also considered whether Mr. Saip was unfit to serve in public office. ‘He's been at the helm of the school board for years, and while it's endured many financial challenges brought on primarily by declining enrollment, its finances appear to have been managed quite well. So whatever personal issues [Mr.] Saip has encountered, they haven't necessarily translated to his public life,’ he wrote. The riding association picked Kerry-Lynne Findlay as their candidate, although Ms. Findlay has also had money problems. Mr. Saip had defeated her for the nomination by a vote of 78 to 66, the newspaper reported.
    11 03 25 R.O.
    Although John Cummins announced his retirement which may of not been a total surprise for some considering his age . doesn't really look like things have shifted enough here to change the balance . combined that with fact opposition in riding isn't ready and hasn't had candidates prepared in advance or given a chance to get known in riding . guess we'll find out more of what happens here in coming days as parties hold nomination meetings to select new candidates . the loss of original tory candidate Dale Saip early is best for them in long run as they could of had another bc southern interior 06 election situation , if he had stayed so party made difficult but right move .
    11 03 25 OgtheDim
    Well now that the Tory candidate has been turfed maybe its time to have a hard second look?
    11 03 25 Marco Ricci
    The new Conservative candidate to replace retiring John Cummins has already resigned after the media revealed that he had a history of bankruptcy and insolvency problems.
    This problem in the Conservative campaign is not likely to be enough to cost them this riding, but it gives the other parties an opportunity to make up ground.
    09 08 26 JJ
    A safe, suburban Conservative riding made up of commercial development and farmlands. John Cummins is a bit a maverick politician and is popular here. With a 16,000 vote margin of victory in 2008, this is one of the safest CPC seats in the Metro Vancouver area.

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