Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission

Prediction Changed
2009-08-27 11:20:00

Constituency Profile


Bhuller, Mandeep

Kamp, Randy

Speirs, Craig

Tam, Peter

Randy Kamp

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • dewdney-alouette (179/201 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    Not as strongly Conservative as the southside of the Fraser River, but even in 2004 and 2006 when things were closer and the NDP had a stronger candidate, they still couldn't pull this off so I suspect the Tories will hold this. The real question is the margin and whether they get a plurality or majority of votes.
    11 04 15 burlivespipe
    For a couple of elections, the Ndp with Bocking were close to upsetting the conservative candidate. If he had ran a third time, I'd have gone for an orange upset -- Kamp really is not well respected in his own riding. However, he'll have enough to win fairly comfortably.
    11 04 05 M. Lunn
    This will likely go Tory although their support (or predecessors) seems to vary between around 40% in 1997, 2004, and 2006, and upwards of 50% in 2000 and 2008 and the NDP does have a strong presence here so if the Tories fall back towards 40% and the centre-left unites behind the NDP they could pull this off albeit not very likely but unlike Ontario, BC is far less predictable in its voting patterns.
    11 04 04 buddyface
    I should post this correction. The spread last time between the Con's and the NDP was nearly 10,000 votes, not the 2,000 I was thinking.
    The election is four weeks away and with the exception of some signage at intersections one would not even guess there is a federal election on. The only all candidates meeting appears to be in Mission, put on by the local chamber of commerce which is taking place on April 14th. Little in the local papers so this one is pretty much a walk for Kamp with at least two of the other candidates probably more concerned with keeping their names in the papers(when there is a federal election article) leading into the next municipal election in Nov 2011.
    11 03 28 buddyface
    This riding will go to Kamp/Conservatives. The NDP has local municipal politician Craig Speirs in place of Mike Bocking this time around but there is little to say that this will change the outcome at all.
    The Liberals went with Mandeep Bhullar a former school trustee who will be pushed to retake the lead from the Green Party candidate Peter Tam and make the Liberals the third choice in the area once again. If the Liberals could put together a good constituency association they could make some headway, but that seems years down the road from where they are right now.
    It is well known that Peter Tam and Craig Speirs share many ideas and it would be hard to tell the two apart on platform, they were both part of the NDP farm team that runs every Maple Ridge municipal election and appeared at the same Spiers organized rally recently held. The fact that only 40 people showed up to the rally speaks volumes of Spiers lack of pull outside of his core supporters. Tam will do nothing to extend the green vote even though there are many middle of the road voters who might go that way, but given the history of the two together (Spiers and Tam) this should bolster the Liberal candidate. It would not be a surprise to see Tam throw his weight behind Spiers as things near the end because they will both no doubt be on the municipal slate again in the following November.
    At the end of the day Speirs does not have anywhere near the popular support amongst undecided voters, further to this, his abrasive personality puts off even some who would traditionally support the NDP on the federal level in this area. Speirs is not the worst choice for the NDP, but at the end of the day he needs to pick up 2,000+ votes to win this riding and those votes are not going to come based on how he conducts himself on council.
    10 09 02 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    A recent poll has the CPC at only 25% in BC with the NDP at 31% and the liberals at 22%. In '04 and '06 this was very competitive for the NDP. Now there is an apparent HST backlash and the NDP stand to gain from it. Would argue that this riding is TCTC unless this is poll is just a temporary blip and the CPC regains ground in BC.
    09 08 26 Sean P.F.
    Randy Kamp had a scare here in 2004 and 2006, but a resurgent Liberal vote will bleed from the NDP, and give Kamp another comfortable victory.

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