Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-05-01 09:06:00

Constituency Profile


Cavers, Donovan Michael

Crawford, Michael David

Kempling, Christopher

McLeod, Cathy

Todd, Murray

Cathy McLeod

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • cariboo-chilcotin (38/192 Polls)
  • kamloops,-thompson-and-highland-valleys (185/202 Polls)
  • prince-george-bulkley-valley (5/206 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 05 01 Six-of-One
    Okay, looking at the polls, Conservative support in BC is holding at near-2008 levels. The Liberals already hit their floor in Kamloops in 2008, and while the NDP might pick up some Greens and yes the odd Conservative, it won't be enough to put them over the top. The large turnout at the advance polls is good news for the Conservatives, who usually get a lot of their support out at those polls. Add to that the fact that Cathy McLeod is a personable and outgoing MP, so the portion of the electorate that votes based on the candidate will favour her as well.
    11 04 30 jeff316
    Re: Six-of-one - Conservatives flip to the NDP all the time all across the country. That's how the NDP gets elected in half their current ridings - small c Conservatives and anti-Liberals. It could happen here too.
    11 04 30 Vancouver Islander
    Looking at the average of regional polls plus some of the regional media analysis, this is a pick up for the NDP. I suggest that there are three interior seats that are going to switch from Conservative to NDP, two more on the Island, and another two in the Lower Mainland. The NDP rally in Kamloops was one of the largest ever held there. The provincial NDP machine in the Cariboo is also pretty impressive at getting the vote out.
    11 04 30 Annika
    The NDP has really been gaining ground. I think it's probably too close to call, but I know many people- myself included- who voted Conservative last time who are voting NDP this time. Jack Layton himself has been to Kamloops twice in the past couple weeks- clearly he identifies this riding as a place to gain some votes, and Michael Crawford is certainly getting his name out there. I've seen him around town at least twice a week in the past couple weeks, out meeting people and trying to drum up votes.
    I think it's TCTC, and I wouldn't be surprised if Crawford comes out the winner. He seems to want it more than any other candidate, and I think people are responding well to that.
    11 04 30 keefr
    Contrary to a previous poster's assertion-- Conservative voters in BC actually DO flip to the NDP. It's a dynamic that is often misunderstood by the rest of Canada or those who haven't followed BC politics closely.
    In the 1990s, for example, rural BC voters went Reform federally and NDP provincially. There is no disputing this fact.
    I am not willing to call this for the NDP presently, and have an inkling that the Tories may have it by a whisker. Nonetheless the proverbial bets are off.
    11 04 30 Stevo
    Six-of-One doesn't seem well-acquainted with BC political culture to argue that Conservative voters never switch the NDP, or vice versa. In fact, BC is now the ONLY province where one could very easily see this phenomenon occurring. It's certainly happened before.
    I'm generally inclined to think the Tories are safe here, nonetheless. Jack's revolution appears confined to Quebec and urban English Canada. The guy from downtown Toronto with the big smile probably doesn't have much appeal in interior BC.
    11 04 30 binriso
    Looking quickly at some math, last election the Conservatives won by 10.3% when they were 19.1% ahead in the province, that means if the provincewide result is a Conservative lead in the 5-10% range, then this seat is TCTC and would be the 13th seat for the NDP in BC. And polling shows that kind of race in many cases.
    11 04 28 S.G.
    TCTC. This is one of only 9 ridings in Canada the survived the NDP decimation in 1993, but that was when Nelson Riis was the MP, and his popularity transcended party politics. The Tories won in 2008 but nearly 10 % of the vote, but the orange surge means all bets are off. It will certainly by a tight finish either way.
    11 04 28 Six-of-One
    Conservatives don't flip to the NDP. This will be a Conservative hold. If anything, the NDP surge in Quebec will cause the Conservative vote in BC to turn out. Layton threw his Western MP's under the bus by promising to re-open the constitution.
    11 04 25 Seth
    If the NDP tide sweeping the country in the polls holds for another week, this will flip to the NDP.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    Kamloops is usually a close race with the NDP doing well on the norther side which is a working class area and the Tories on the south side which is more affluent. The problem is the NDP unlike their provincial counterparts or federally in 1988 are very weak in the rural portions never mind many of those in the BC Interior who switched to the Reform Party in 1993 still continue to vote Tory even if the vote NDP provincially as the current Tories are more of a Reform takeover than PC one and that may be a liability in some parts of the country but an asset here. Also the Tories aren't seen as much of a Central Canada party as they were under Mulroney. So although they will probably get only a plurality here, I expect this to stay Tory.
    11 04 05 M. Lunn
    Provincially this is a bellwether riding as usually whichever party takes the Kamloops ridings wins the provincial election. However federally, not so much. Kamloops is pretty evenly split between the NDP doing well in the working class Northern side while the Tories in the more affluent southern side. Outside the downtown, the Thompson River is essentially the dividing point. However, the NDP federally is quite weak in the smaller towns elsewhere thus unless they can get some serious momentum in BC, it will probably stay Conservative.
    11 03 23 Jim
    No agitation for change here. Gentle stay the course sentiment. Margin will not be huge but the Con vote is not decreasing. Budget played well
    10 09 02 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Prediction change from CPC to TCTC. Just saw the recent Ekos poll and what surprised us was how the CPC seems to have lost significant ground....to the NDP! Was something like 31% support for the NDP with the CPC at 25% and Libs at 22%. Bigger surprise was Harpers disapproval rate (over 50%). It would appear that there is a HST backlash a-brewin'. If that is the case (and only time will tell if this is a blip or something much more substantial) then many seats which should be securely CPC are not much more competitive. This will be one that the NDP will be targeting hard.
    10 08 23
    The HST will have a negative affect here - even though it's Campbell and a provincial issue - what i'm hearing is discontent everywhere. Kamloops is a bellwether and the Conservatives have no place but to go down here and in other places in BC. The NDP have already targeted this riding. I predict the between the softening of both the C and L votes, the NDP will come up. NDP gain.
    10 07 15 Chris Fofonoff
    I'd love to say the NDP will win this seat, but I do fear that Crawford may have too much ground to make up. He mopped the floor with his three opponents in the 2008 candidates' debate at TRU (I lost track of the number of times McLeod's response was ‘I don't know’) and still lost by ten points. And this was with a Liberal candidate who pulled only ten percent of the vote.
    It seems to me that Crawford's best chance is to turn McLeod into a defender of the HST, which is about as popular in Kamloops as it is anywhere else in BC. She's cautiously defended it in at least one interview I've read, taking care to compare it to higher rates of tax in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. If ‘at least it isn't as bad here’ is the best she can do, she may be in trouble.
    10 01 12 Six of One
    I didn't say that the NDP won Kamloops in the 1990's (when they had half of the national support they do now) because they were the NDP, I said that they won because Nelson Riis was their candidate. In fact, the point I am trying to make is that the NDP holding this riding at all was an aberration compared to past results, mainly due to the personal popularity of Nelson Riis.
    09 12 23
    I ask the editor to reconsider calling this constituency for the Conservatives.
    The NDP lost last election here but nevertheless its support increased reasonably (a good trend considering the overall decline of NDP in BC in 2008). Conservatives under Harper had a record-breaking number of MP's from BC but with the HST issue and the decrease in government and Harper popularity we can expect TCTC in Kamloops as well in Vancouver Island North and Surrey North. As the previous poster said the NDP has already held this riding at a time when it had half the support it currently holds nationally and provincially.
    09 11 22 Six of One
    Before Nelson Riis, the NDP never won this riding - they came in second only once, and in third or fourth otherwise. Nelson Riis won with a combination of his local likeability and the 1980's being a good decade for the NDP nationally. Even after the NDP waned in the 1990's, Nelson Riis' personal popularity kept him in office. Michael Crawford is no Nelson Riis. I don't care how many times Jack Layton visits Kamloops, or how many ten-percenters NDP MP's send to Kamloops constituents. Plus the incumbent Conservative MP has been generally well received by the constituents, including pragmatic Federal Liberals who know the importance of having a government MP. Sure, nothing is 100% certain, but if Crawford couldn't do it twice before, including the last one where he campaigned for two years and the CPC candidate was selected at the last minute, why would the third time be a charm?
    09 10 05 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Can't really see this going NDP unless the election becomes a referendum on the HST. If that's the case, would have to gauge voters discontent with the tax before it's called anything but a CPC keep.
    09 09 17 R.O.
    This is a riding that often disappoints the ndp and it should be noted that the last time it actually voted ndp federally was 1997 election. that being said the ndp has managed some strong second place showings here in recent elections and does have a strong base in the riding. but the conservatives also run strong in this riding and now that Cathy Mcleod has been mp for a year have the clear advantage here over last elections open race here. during which Jack Layton throw all he could at the riding and spent an entire day here i remember. overall the interior of bc is more of a conservative area politically at the moment even though some of the seats do have some ndp history to them there likely to stay blue.
    09 09 11 BJ
    The two provincial constituencies in this riding (Kamloops-South Thompson and Kamloops-North Thompson) showed the provincial Liberals with a combined approximate 5,000 vote edge over the NDP i the May election. On top of that, the provincial Conservatives also garnered over 1,000 votes. Even with a lacklustre incumbent, the Tories should be able to hold this seat.
    09 08 27 wyatt
    McLeod will hang on to the seat. Her 5,600 vote lead will likely increase to 6800-7200. Despite running a familiar candidate and not having to run against the incumbent, the NDP couldn't take advantage in '08.
    09 08 28 Observer
    Rural BC does not mean safe Conservative territory. BC is not Alberta. In provincial elections, the NDP leads most of this riding.
    09 08 26 JJ
    Usually a tight race, but I'm calling this one for the Conservatives right now. Both the CPC and NDP gained votes in 2008, but the CPC came through with a healthy margin of victory of over 5000 votes. CPC hold.
    09 08 26 Sean P.F.
    Rural British Columbia is Conservative Country. While they have lost ground in Skeena-Bulkley Valley and BC Southern Interior, every other riding is a safe Conservative victory.
    09 08 24 Observer
    I am not sure the Conservatives will win again in Kamloops. The Conservative government was very high in the polls last time, and it is not going to repeat again. Conservative-NDP close contest.

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