Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

North Vancouver

Prediction Changed
2011-04-30 09:22:00

Constituency Profile


Charrois, Michael

Dowman, Greg

Jones, Nick

Noormohamed, Taleeb

Saxton, Andrew

Andrew Saxton

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • north-vancouver (216/241 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 05 01 rsg
    The Liberals have the momentum despite the National campaign, the Conservative candidate in this riding has largely been missing in action and ineffective. In contrast, Taleb Mohamed has been engaging in the issues and picked up a lot of the Green and NDP support. I'm not doubting it will be close as my Conservative friends indicate, but i think in the end when all the votes are counted the liberals are going to regain this seat.
    11 04 28 S.G.
    The Liberal implosion means the party will be lucky to keep the seats it currently has. The Grits will probably get 1 to 4 seats in BC and almost certainly won't be picking up new ones. Conservative hold.
    11 04 28 keefr
    Conservative hold though it may be tight. This riding has bucked national trends before, but it will be very difficult for the Liberal to draw enough votes in light of their weak national numbers.
    11 04 27 Griffin
    I believe this seat will stay Conservative because Saxton, despite being a rather bland person, has kept up his visibility in the riding and brought lots of federal dollars which were spent on pretty visible projects. What many people don't know, or choose to forget, is that it went Liberal primarily because Ted White had lost interest in being the MP when Reform merged with CPC, and he didn't run a very good campaign, in fact offended a couple of large local sectors (the film industry and our large Iranian population). Being the District Mayor at the time, Don Bell had strong name recognition and voters wanted to send White to the penalty box, but lots of people -- Don Bell included, were shocked when he (Bell) won. Bell won a second term when the Cons chose Cindy Silver, a candidate with some baggage that wasn't properly ‘unpacked’, and The Libs painted her as a fundamentalist Christian with a hidden agenda, not a particularly fair assessment, something that people would have discovered if they'd taken the time to get to know her, as I did. Once the Conservative party chose a candidate that resonated well with voters, the riding returned to its roots. So the notion that the current Liberal flagbearer can steal the riding back is based more on wishful thinking that any rational assessment of the situation. I say Saxton by at least 4,000 votes.
    11 04 27
    The Liberals nationally are not doing so well but they are running a very strong campaign in this relatively weak Conservative riding. The NDP is generally not strong in this riding preventing anti-Harper vote splits. The Liberal candidate as a very strong presence in the large ethnic community here. If the Conservatives falter nationally even a bit, this riding will go Liberal.
    11 04 26 JM
    Just can't see this seat turning over to the Liberals. Motivated grey power vote against Coalition threat, complete newcomer Liberal candidate, resurgent NDP bleeding support from Liberals. Momentum and demographics favour the incumbent Saxton here.
    11 04 25 North Van Girl
    Saxton has done very little to engage voters (both in the last 2 1/2 years and during this campaign). Taleeb has had a strong presence in the community and if beyond capacity crowd at the Pier hotel last weekend is any indication this will be a tough fought race. Despite the recent surge of the NDP, this riding will be a Con. vs. Lib show down and leftys on the fence will throw their support behind Noormohamed to avoid splitting the vote.
    11 04 24 R.O.
    I agree with M Lunn this is a centre right riding not a left of centre riding , its much like Oakville a suburban riding near toronto in Ontario . a riding where the liberals push to the left might made things more difficult for them. the liberals also no longer have well known candidate Don Bell , who was likely main if not only reason they won riding in 04 and 06 elections. i think its also becoming clearer liberals having much harder time winning back seats lost in 08 than they though , they must of assumed these seats come running back to them which may have been why they forced early election but most if not all remain tough races . Its not the conservatives safest seat in Vancouver area but its not very likely Andrew Saxton loses it this election
    11 04 17 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    There was a lot of support for Don Bell himself in the past, never the less, CPC support is way down in BC from last time and Liberal support is way up. Just sayin'...
    11 04 17 blondboybc
    This riding will come down to the wire, as it did in 2008, but in this election Con support is down in BC by several percentage points, whilst Lib and NDP support is trending up (as of April 15th, based on Nanos and Ekos polls). Several sites are calling this to slip to the Libs on the basis of these polling trends. Expect the Libs to take this by less than 500 votes this time round. Of all BC ridings, this is one is most likely to be a gain for Libs on May 2nd. Definitely a race to watch!
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    Although close last time around, this was really a Don Bell riding more than a Liberal one. Don Bell had a strong level of personal popularity and thus picked up a lot of the swing votes. With him gone, I cannot see the Liberals retaking this. This is a centre-right, not centre-left riding.
    11 04 14 burlivespipe
    Taleeb N. is putting in a real charge and Weston's nervous. The western side of the riding is plastered in red signs and Stevenson's endorsement will sway some green support into the red camp -- even 1% could be enough to take this. Weston's got incumbency on his side, but his record is pretty thread-bare. He wasn't helped by the Conservatives' latest gaffe on ethnic costumes. It will take a major hiccup on the national camp to prevent a Liberal pick up here...
    11 04 10 ExVancouverite
    Much as it pains me to do so, I'm going to have to call this one for the Conservatives. The riding has been Conservative for years, except for the brief period when star candidate Don Bell held it -- and both of his victories were helped along by weak opponents. First, he beat Ted White (I think it was), who had managed to annoy film makers and Iranians and various other large voting blocks. Then he beat Cindy Silver, who was far too socially conservative for the red Tory-style riding. Saxton is your classic fiscal conservative with no social conservative baggage. He may not have distinguished himself in any particular way -- neither has the Liberal candidate -- but he's the sort of MP North Vancouver seems to be ok with. Unless the Conservatives take a huge slide in the polls in BC, I see Saxton holding this.
    11 04 05 M. Lunn
    This was a tight race in the past three elections, however this is definitely more of a Conservative than Liberal riding. The closeness had more to do with Don Bell's personal popularity and he is not running again thus the Tories definitely have an edge here. I know some prediction sites are calling this for the Liberals based on polling numbers and how it voted in the past, but as someone who has family in this riding and knows it well, the Liberals have a solid base of 30%, but unless they have a strong candidate they aren't likely to do much better while the Tories will usually get over 40% unless the Liberals have a strong candidate like Don Bell who can take some of their soft votes. Thus the edge for the Tories unless but still a little early to make a firm call.
    11 03 31 George Sifton
    Taleeb Noormohamed makes a big deal about being given a Liberal patronage appointment to VANOC and his work for Lefty Bob Rae. He is another Liberal left liberal like everyone they run here except center right Don Bell. The Libs have no chance running a left winger. The NDP didn't even get a rebate as they got less 10%, there are no votes for a red lib to take.
    11 03 28 nvloc
    Looks like the Conservatives are winning the ground war in North Van. The writ dropped first thing Saturday morning and by lunch there were ‘Saxton’ signs at every major intersection. Now they are everywhere and full props to the NDP candidate Michael Charrois for getting his campaign going early too.
    11 03 27 NVmyRoots
    Saxton got elected in the last election only because Don Bell had a heart attack and was out of commission part of the election cycle. Dion's policies were not popular in the riding either. I agree with others that Saxton is practically absent from our riding. His affiliation with Grouse mountain is not a feather in his cap as the resort is an environmental disaster and an eyesore that can not be rectified with a mere windmill. The Liberal candidate has a good chance due to the large an unified Esmaili community in North Vancouver and a Persian community that is fed up with the conserative immigration policy.
    11 03 22 Laurence Putnam
    ‘Saxton's only connection to North Vancouver...’ yes everyone knows that, knew it last time, and yet he won. If loyalty to a particular geographic area is going to be that big an issue, I think the Liberals will be too busy having to defend their own parachute jumps as Taleeb Noormohamed hasn't exactly spent his adult life in North Van either and let's not forget Mr. Ignatieff who hasn't exactly spent most of his adult life in Canada. If I were you Jeremy I'd think twice before campaigning on the issue of ‘who's more of a local boy’ - cause the Liberals quite obviously aren't stacking up too well in that department.
    11 02 28 Jeremy
    Saxton's only connection to North Vancouver is his father's initial development of Grouse Mountain. You should ask Andrew how his family acquired the mountain next time you see him. While you're at it ask him exactly where he went to school in North Van, elementary school will do considering he went to Upper Canada College later on in life.
    11 02 16 Laurence Putnam
    Jeremy - to be clear, I have lived in North Vancouver uninterrupted since 1990 and in that time was involved with the North Vancouver-Seymour Social Credit Association, and the North Vancouver PC Association including as riding president for a few years and as the candidate in the 2000 election. But of course you probably knew all that being the insider you are!
    11 02 02 Jeremy
    Laurence I can assume by your numerous postings on this site that you are not the one who resides in North Van, city or district. Now that the finger pointing is over Saxton will not win, he is lazy and is never in the riding except for his weekends off. Furthermore he has a fabricated connection with North Van, did you know he wanted to be the PC candidate in Vancouver Quadra back in the late '80's and then the CP candidate in Vancouver Quadra just a few years back?! Yup, he's Mr. North Vancouver alright. I won't even go into his family's donations to the LPC as they are a matter of public record, just go to the Elections Canada website. I don't want to see this riding go LPC but I want a conservative MP something we don't have in Saxton. Now if Mike Little decided to make the jump that would be great but now is not the time for him and Doug Mackay Dunn is just a little too old. Too bad Mussatto is a dipper, as he is a good Mayor, genuine and a hard worker. Like I said too bad he is a dipper.
    10 12 27 Laurence Putnam
    I will have to guess that Jeremy does not live in North Vancouver.
    For one, Andrew Saxton is everywhere in the community, scarcely does a weekend go by that I don't see him out at one public function or another - I've even had people I work with comment on how he has come doorknocking to their door....*gasp* between elections!
    For another, Don Bell is probably the ONLY person that could win this back for the Liberals. If history is any indication, no matter which ‘star candidate’ the Liberals throw at us, Iona Campagnola (1988) Warren Kinsella (1997), we always go with the homegrown boy. Which is why Don Bell has been the only Liberal to win North Van since 1974.
    Even still, Don Bell blew his credibility by trying for - and losing - a provincial nomination in North Vancouver-Lonsdale. His currency is down, and he's almost 70 years old now. I don't see him making a comeback.
    The Liberals have never won this riding because of the party. A popular news anchor won it for the Liberals in 1974, and Bell, a popular long-time Mayor, won it for the Libs in 2004 and 2006, but that's it. On the other hand, no-names prior to taking office like Ted White and Andrew Saxton CAN win the riding as long as they are self-identified as right-wingers.
    The Liberal brand is not a beloved one in North Vancouver and any local knows that.
    10 11 25 Jeremy
    I don't see Saxton returning to Ottawa on the next go around. He is rarely seen in the riding and has been a lack lustre MP regardless of his PS portfolio. If the Liberals go back to the well with Don Bell they will be handing this riding to the CPC but if they can nominate a candidate with a solid North Vancouver bio and the professional CV to match they should easily reatke this riding.
    UB-Date 10 11 25
    09 10 13 R.O.
    unlike so other bc ridings where the ndp is very competitive this one has been a liberal conservative battle in recent years and is somewhat of a similar riding to what would be found in the suburbs around toronto. it was originally seen as somewhat of a surprising liberal pick up in 2004 but Don Bell managed to hold the seat in 2006 a bad election for the liberals but not that bad in bc oddly enough as the conservatives won government but lost ground in bc that year. but last election it returned to the conservatives and Andrew Saxton has been mp for just about a year now and have to work hard to keep the riding. my feel is this riding is still going to be competitive but i don't really see it going to another party or returning to the liberals at this time.
    09 09 27 Philly D.
    Barring any unusual circumstances, if the Liberals pick up only three seats in Western Canada next go-round this will be one of them. As mentioned before, the margin is small. Also mentioned was the very wide LIberal-CPC spread last time which can only shrink. But this is also a somewhat more mature riding than many others the CPC hold, in that while it is a suburb, it is still close to Vancouver proper, is richer, does not have a particularly sizeable minority population the Tories are working to woo compared to many other Vancouver-area ridings. It most resembles Mississauga South or London West in Ontario, both traditionally Conservative ridings moving away from them long-term (Mississauga South is still Liberal while the other one only fell last time narrowly). Therefore, I expect Vancouver West is doing the same and that the Liberals will pick it up if the spread in BC is less than 15 points. There is genuine Liberal vote here.
    09 09 13 Kevin
    This was close in the last round. People in the riding don't like the idea of an election but in talking with people they don't seem to hold the liberals at fault if there is one. Last go round many liberal voters stayed home saying they just couldn't support Dion. This won't be the case this time around. Could very well swing back to the liberals.
    09 09 01 MF
    North Van is hardly in the bag for the Conservatives. They narrowly won it during the Dion debacle when the Liberals were at 19% province-wide and the Tories were at 44%. With the Liberals almost certainly going to gain ground and the Tories almost certainly going to lose ground next time, this is probably the most likely Liberal pickup in BC.
    09 09 01 binriso
    Right now, theres very little growth potential for the Liberals in the west and I honestly dont see them gaining more than a few seats if any. However this is an interesting riding and if they get Don Bell (or some star candidate) back to run again they might be able to retake this one. If they only get an average or lesser-known candidate, itll be CPC again.
    09 08 26 wyatt
    2,800 is a comfortable little margin to win with, particularly when you're a first time candidate. With the incumbent's advantage, Saxton should hold this. Look for a margin between 4000-5000.

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