Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Skeena-Bulkley Valley

Prediction Changed
2009-08-23 21:34:00

Constituency Profile


Benham, Roger

Braun, Maggie

Cullen, Nathan Paul

Harmon, Clay

Taylor, Rod

Warwick, Kyle

Nathan Cullen

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • cariboo-chilcotin (6/192 Polls)
  • prince-george-bulkley-valley (50/206 Polls)
  • skeena (174/174 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    The NDP are strong along the coast where you have a large labour union presence and also amongst aboriginals who make up about 1/3 of this riding. The Tories do well in the Bulkley Valley. The reason this will stay NDP is Nathan Cullen is quite popular personally as well as the Liberal voters here no they have no chance so I expect him to pick up many Green and Liberal votes. The Tories may get as high as 40%, but they won't win this and they could get as low as 30% on the other hand.
    11 04 08 C.A.B.
    On the one hand, the reason the NDP did so well here last time was because the vote was very strongly polarized: neither the Liberals nor the Greens were anywhere near getting their deposit back, and who knows if the NDP will be able to maintain that level of consolidation. On the other, Nathan Cullen is a star and future leadership contender, and won here even in 2004, with the Liberals over 20%. Therefore, I'm willing to predict that Cullen will hold here, and may even withstand a decimation of his caucus, as his fellow BC Interior New Democrat MP, Nelson Riis, did in 1993.
    11 04 05 M. Lunn
    Although the Tories have some strength in the inland portions, the coastal areas go heavily NDP due to their large rate of unionization as well as this riding is 1/3 aboriginal who the NDP does well amongst. The only thing I could see causing this to change is the gun registry which is deeply unpopular here and despite the fact Nathan Cullen voted to scrap it many rightly or wrongly assume it can only be scrapped with a Tory majority. Nevertheless, Nathan Cullen is a hardworking and well respected MP thus this is his to lose.
    11 03 25 WAC
    Cullen won by about 5,000 votes the last two elections - given the polls I can't see this drastically changing.
    09 08 23 Observer
    The NDP is the leading party here since 2004, and Nathan Cullen was reelected in 2006 and 2008 with good numbers. Right now don't expect any change.

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