Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Surrey North

Prediction Changed
2011-05-01 09:07:00

Constituency Profile


Barens, Norris

Cadman, Dona

Keenan, Bernadette

Pielak, Kevin

Purewal, Shinder

Sandhu, Jasbir

Scott, Jamie

Dona Cadman

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • surrey-central (7/241 Polls)
  • surrey-north (150/171 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 30 MF
    This will be the first NDP pickup in BC and they certainly will be picking up seats. The NDP has a much stronger candidate this time, it's strong NDP territory provincially and Dona Cadman is a lacklustre MP.
    11 04 30 Jeff Nagel
    My hunch for Surrey North? NDP's Jasbir Sandhu will take the seat, thanks to the Layton surge and strong organizers including Penny Priddy. Shinder Purewal will be hurt by the deflation of Liberal/Ignatieff support. Dona Cadman's numbers will still be strong. But her inaccessibility is so unlike Chuck and more voters will detect the difference this time.
    11 04 30 binriso
    The NDP barely lost this riding last time and with a closer race in BC theyll likely win it back this time around.
    11 04 29 R.O.
    Tough riding to call but i think ndp is much more likely to gain new seats in quebec than new seats in bc if polls are to be believed. there is also alot of voters in BC not comfortable with idea of ndp in power which is why BC liberals won provincially so that might help conservatives. Dona Cadman is still very well known in the riding but maybe not made as much of an impact in Ottawa as her late husband did. and she has a couple years as the incumbent going into this election , where is Jasmir Sandhu has never ran before so its tough to get a feel for how he'd do in riding. not sure who will win but likely to be decided by small margin again .
    11 04 29
    Tough riding to call but i think ndp is much more likely to gain new seats in quebec than new seats in bc if polls are to be believed. there is also alot of voters in BC that remember past provincial ndp governments which is why BC liberals won provincially so that might help conservatives. Dona Cadman is still very well known in the riding but maybe not made as much of an impact in Ottawa as her late husband did. and she has a couple years as the incumbent going into this election , where is Jasmir Sandhu has never ran before so its tough to get a feel for how he'd do in riding. not sure who will win but likely to be decided by small margin again .
    11 04 28 keefr
    The tide has shifted. With the local print and TV press now branding Ms Cadman a ‘no-show’, any advantage she had has retreated-- substantially.
    Changing my prediction to NDP gain.
    11 04 26 Teddy Boragina
    Normally when my math projections snow the NDP winning a riding for the first time this election I expect to see nobody else having thought the NDP could win. This riding is different. The NDP is now ahead here on the math.
    11 04 25 Austin Gatensbury
    Of all the MPs in BC, Cadman is most likely to go down to defeat. Harper's muzzle prevents her from responding to her opponents and to the various rumours spreading on their own through her riding. There are doubts that she seriously wants to get re-elected.
    In addition, the Conservatives have upset most South Asians by associating with suspected Sikh terrorists. The NDP has a strong South Asian candidate who will defeat Cadman by a fairly large margin.
    I'm sticking my neck out on this one by predicting a decisive NDP victory.
    11 04 25 Marco Ricci
    Cadman is facing some controversy here:
    'Cadman won't talk to press or attend all-candidates meetings'
    11 04 26
    I've been following this site for years and this is the first time I have posted for this election. Overall predictions are very good, if lagging trends, but this is a riding that is outright misscalled. Even Ipsos, which has a history of flattering numbers for the Conservatives show Surrey North is more likely to go NDP.
    11 04 25 Patrick M.
    Realistically, this should be at the very least a Too Close To Call riding. The NDP lost it in 2008 by a slim margin, and this election they are running a reasonably high profile, indo-Canadian local businessman. At the same time, Dona Cadman has had very little exposure over the past 3 years and the NDP are riding higher in the polls than they were in 08.
    I see no reason this riding would still be considered a Conservative lock, given the increased strength of the NDP and it's improved local candidate.
    11 04 25 Local
    Better switch this prediction pretty quick - Cadman is in big trouble here and the NDP is trending up.
    11 04 24 Ron
    I think this will be an NDP pick up. The Conservative candidate is relatively weak, the NDP was relatively strong here even prior to their recent ‘surge’. Further, the HST issue is an important one in this riding. It will go NDP.
    11 04 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Yeah...not sure about this CPC prediction. Donna has the name recognition but she's been a silent backbencher and (in our opinion) a very poor successor to her husband. She's been just another Harper drone and if we're thinking that, then probably voters in her riding are as well. What is working in her favour are the polling numbers which have the NDP stalled at what they had in '08 and the Liberals up (split the left-wing vote). But those same polls have CPC down in BC. It's not a sure CPC win just yet.
    11 04 16 p kelly
    This should not be declared so soon for the tories. Despite the Cadman name, this seat trends towards the NDP. The tories are about 10 points back of their 2008 tally and this is a marginal seat that could flip to the NDP as a result. Liberals are in the dog house, so this should be a pick-up for the NDP.
    11 04 16 Cantancorich
    Dona Cadman won by about 1000 votes in the last election and has been a disgrace to Surrey North. First she wasn't sure if she got a million dollar bribe from the Conservative Party or not.
    Then she told the local media she would respect her constituents' wishes and vote against the HST. But she chickened out and didn't even show up for the vote.
    Surrey North has elected good NDP MPs previously in Jim Karpoff and Penny Priddy and will again in 2011 when Jasbir Sandhu takes the seat.
    Jasbir Sandhu is runs local restaurant and works at the Justice Institute as a program coordinator. He has lots of local name recognition and should win by about the same margin Cadman won last time.
    11 04 15 CBM
    South Asian vote splits between the Grits and Dippers. Cadman has the name and incumbency to ride. Con victory. I lived in this riding for years, it's all about the candidate and not so much the party. It's an interesting mix of Conservative values on crime and punishment and NDP values on social issues....
    11 04 14 keefr
    Cadman will probably ride her name recognition to victory again. Especially seeing as the NDP candidate does not a very high profile, politically. if Penny Priddy or someone were running, it would be a different story.
    11 04 10 burlivespipe
    I don't know why this one has been listed as a lock for Cadman -- she is facing some furious constituents who decried her spineless performance on the HST issue (she stated emphatically that she'd do what her constituents wanted on this issue, which was to vote against it; when it came to voting, she Harper'd out, choosing to pull the party line)... The NdP's history in this riding is fairly rock-solid and are a real threat to win this. Making it even more possible is the solid campaign from Dr. Purewal, who will give those who were turned off by Cadman's lack of conviction during her time in the Commons another place to park their votes. At most this should be considered a slim CON hold, but it will go down to election night.
    11 04 08 DL
    This will be an easy NDP pick-up. The NDP almost won in 2008 despite having a very low quality last minute candidate and despite there still being some leftover sentimental support for Dona Cadman. This time the NDP is pouring in resources and has a high profile candidate. Cadman is being raked over the coals for promising the oppose the HST and then meekly supporting it on Harper's orders. She has not said a word since being elected to Parliament and has been just about the lowest profile, most ineffective MP in the whole House of Commons. It should be noted that the two provincial ridings that make up Surrey North are the two safest NDP seats in the whole province - both Surrey Whalley and Surrey Green Timbers went over 75% NDP - that tells you something about the ideological leanings of the people in Surrey North.
    11 04 05 linda
    Jasbir Sandhu is definitely not unknown in the community. A large number of the Indo community know Jasbir for his work as a Komata Maru activist. There are over 33k people of South Asian descent, and they like to exercise their voting power.
    Dona Cadman has name recognition and the Conservative support in consistently increasing in British Columbia.
    I reckon this will be a tight race, but the NDP will most likely win by a small margin given the bad press that shined on Dona in the past few days.
    11 04 05 M. Lunn
    If the Tories lose any Lower Mainland seats, this is probably the most likely one. Although Donna Cadman has some popularity due to her late husband Chuck Cadman, she hasn't been nearly as effective an MP as well as provincially the NDP reguarly gets over 70% in this area so this area is quite left wing. Still it is too close to call at this point but should be a tight NDP-Tory battle.
    11 04 02 J Keller
    Hold. ‘Cadman is now the incumbent and has strong name recognition. The 'Cadman incident' just before the last election probably had a negative and dampening effect on her vote in 2008 but that has largely blown over.’
    Evidently Dona Cadman felt obligated to tell the truth about her husband being approached with a bribe, but not obligated to follow it up to remove a Prime Minister who commits crimes. Her moral choice is her own problem but the people of this riding aren't going to punish her for Harper's briberies or other crimes. So she'd hold this even easier if Harper was dead in polls and the public had come to the conclusion that she was correct all along: He is a criminal.
    11 04 02 y.l.
    The Liberals are running a strong candidate here - Mr. Purewal, a local professor and former immigration judge. Ms. Cadman has been a quiet backbencher. She openly disapproved of the HST, but failed to show up to vote against it in the house. I think the Liberals are going to work hard to capture this riding.
    11 04 01 Flatland Man
    Though I would have this riding leaning CPC at this time I would still say its too close to call. The NDP are the constant contender and I wonder how much the progressive vote or strategic voting will come to play in this election for Surrey North. Also of note is that I have not heard of a Liberal candidate here yet makes me wonder if the Liberals are trying to run a weak campaign here to ‘concede’ the riding to the NDP in order to prevent a Conservatve majority while still looking like they ran a candidate. Perhaps I am just overthinking this but regardless its a two horse race between the NDP and CPC.
    11 03 27 WAC
    In 2008, the Conservative beat the NDP in this riding by about 1,000 votes/3% of the vote. Across BC, the Conservatives got 44.4% and the NDP 25%. In the recent batch of polls most have the Conservatives lower than 44 in the province (though within the margin of error) and the NDP holding steady around 25. Its unclear what this might mean for Surrey North - but what is clear is that according to the available polling data this race is TCTC at this juncture.
    09 11 27 R.O.
    There is a good chance the ndp would of held this seat if not for the retirement of Penny Priddy but now that Dona Cadman is mp i'm not really sure where it will go. her 1000 vote margin of victory in 08 make it one of the closer races in bc and an obvious ndp target although i'm not sure if there new candidate Jasbir Sandhu would be able to do as well is Penny Priddy did here as she had a long political history in the riding at the provincial level. its also tough to say how the hst issue is going to be viewed at the federal level here and what effect it might have in any future election . one thing is obvious when looking at the numbers here is that Dona Cadman is not near as popular as her late husband was in the riding and she may need to get more known as a mp in the riding or work it as they say to build her support.
    09 11 21 BJ
    Cadman is now the incumbent and has strong name recognition. The 'Cadman incident' just before the last election probably had a negative and dampening effect on her vote in 2008 but that has largely blown over.
    The NDP has selected, by acclamation, another no-name candidate, Jasbir Sandhu, who is a 20-year party member as no one else wanted to run for the NDP against Cadman. Jasbir Sandhu also owns a small restaurant, My Village Restaurant, 1/2 hour south in the White Rock-South Surrey area.
    As the incumbent, I give my nod to Cadman right now.
    09 10 20 binriso
    Pretty much was won because of name recognition (of her husband as well) and a surge by the CPC in BC. Honestly without the name recognition the Cadman name produces the NDP would?ve won here last time although it would?ve been close. I?d say TCTC but heavily leaning NDP.
    09 10 16 A.S.
    The trouble with forecasts of a ?strong Liberal campaign? is that on grounds of recent history, the NDP has first dibs on the anti-Tory vote here by far, to the point of monkey-wrenching any Sukh Dhaliwal-esque ethnic-bloc-voting strategy the Liberals may have in mind. Indeed, it's the NDP's top BC target, fueled by the assumption that they blew it last time by mis-nominating--you'd really have to hope for an aggressive 1993 or 2000 Dipper-black-hole dynamic to see the Liberals overtake the NDP for second, let alone first...
    09 10 07
    Cadman is certainly the surrey incumbent in the most risk in the next election. she has done very little and is seen by many as a novelty. expect a strong liberal campaign here buoyed by their newton-north delta MP.
    09 10 05 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Not sure one way or the other. All depends on how the HST is perceived in BC. If it goes over badly Donna could be in some serious trouble. If it all blows over Donna will likely keep it based on name recognition alone.
    09 09 27 David Y.
    The NDP have nominated Jasbir Sandhu, who has a much greater profile in the community than their 2008 candidate, Rachid Arab, possessed.
    Donna Cadman has been practically invisible since she was elected here, and will most likely be looking for a new line of work after the next election.
    09 08 28 DL
    Dona Cadman won here by a very narrow margin despite the NDP having a very weak last minute candidate. The provincial ridings that make up Surrey North each went 75% NDP in May and apparently a number of formidable candidates are lining up for the nomination. Cadman has been totally invisible as an MP and is rumoured to not like the job and to be planning to quit. This is possibly the lowest hanging fruit in the country in terms of being a Tory seat very likely to go NDP.
    09 08 27
    Cadman should be able to hold this riding based on name alone. the liberals have nominated a stronger candidate this time and that will only hurt the ndp. cpc hold.
    09 08 27 wyatt
    Cadman will hang on here. With the incumbent's advantage she will retain this traditional reform/alliance riding.
    09 08 27 Observer
    Donna Cadman narrow election win in 2008 makes me predict a very close race in Surrey North. Too much close to call.
    09 08 27 JJ
    Too close to call. Dona Cadman had the name recognition, but this riding was still a close race between the NDP and Conservatives. Expect this to be an NDP target seat.

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