Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Vancouver Island North

Prediction Changed
2011-05-01 09:06:00

Constituency Profile


Draper, Jason

Duncan, John

Holland, Mike

Leonard, Ronna-Rae

Martin, Frank

Moen, Sue

John Duncan

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • cariboo-chilcotin (3/192 Polls)
  • vancouver-island-north (231/231 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 30
    Demographics is the key to this riding. As in many areas in Canada as time goes by there appears to be a widening split developing between out of touch older voters keeping with tradition and young people who have in their priorities providing social programs and tackling problems that older voters have created. In the past, younger voters have done themselves a disservice in this riding by not voting, however as the gap widens between those who have, and those who have not, young people are choosing to get more involved. This riding is a good example. Out of touch voters, many of whom have moved to the riding from conservative Alberta to retire continue to vote for the status quo. Younger voters are longing for change. There may be a swing back this election but it will depend on the number of out of touch voters who have moved into the riding to spend their last remaining years.
    11 04 30 VancouverIslander
    NDP pick up, the endorsements from across communities suggest a big range of support and a big resentment against the Tories for neglect of fundamental economic issues and sectors on the North Island...very ticked off constituents on the HST and the lack of attention to rural, fishing and resource-based community economies.
    11 04 30 Shop Owner
    I still think the local NDP candidate is taking an incredulous risk in keeping a very low profile here in Campbell River. It is all fine and well to simply swing off of Jack Layton's nuts, hoping to get in on the momentum he has built up, but at some point, you have to say what you are about and what you will do locally. When you view the window of their CR campaign HQ, there are as many signs for Jack Layton as there are for Ms Leonard. Maybe she is doing all of her stomping down in the Comox Valley. To put a big exclaimation point on how little known she is, even Jack Layton referred to her as Anna Rae Leonord on the Bill Good Show Friday morning!!
    11 04 29 R.O.
    i'm not really sure what the ndp rise in Quebec has to do with how rural bc ridings would vote . likely much better ndp prospects in quebec than this riding at the moment. Also Catherine Bell is not running again and she had some appeal in riding so that could hurt the ndp a bit. John Duncan also been mp for number of years and well known in riding . i'd say he maintains the advantage but it continue to be close race like riding has been last few years .
    11 04 28 TJL
    Since the last election Campbell River has seen a lot of Union workers who typically support NDP move to Alberta, while at the same time a lot of retired Albertans have come to Campbell River who tend to support Conservatives. This should bode well for John Duncan. In fact in all of the years watching the election I have never seen so many yard signs supporting the Conservatives as I have this election.
    11 04 27 keefr
    North Island provincially was solid NDP in 2009 (while narrowly NDP in 2005).
    This will be a very close race, as usual, but in light of recent trends, I think it's an NDP pickup now.
    11 04 27
    I wouldn't be so quick to call this one for the Conservatives. That's especially so in light of the NDP upswing in BC and Quebec in particular. This riding swings between the NDP and the Conservatives. This is a marginal riding for the Conservatives, the Liberals are perpetually weak (less possibility of a vote split here0 and so current trends favour the New Democrat candidate.
    11 04 27 binriso
    It seems the NDP will return to 2006 levels of seats here and win this riding back.
    11 04 25 Austin Gatensbury
    Harper appearing here near the end of the campaign shows the Conservatives are worried but still have a chance. Its really hard to tell if the NDP surge, which I think is strong in urban areas, goes far enough up the coast to switch this riding. There are obviously a lot of local dynamics that influence a riding like this, such as resources issues. I can only guess that its still TCTC.
    11 04 25 Marco Ricci
    Looks like the Conservatives are worried that this riding could swing back to the NDP:
    'Conservative leader Stephen Harper travelled to Campbell River over the weekend to drum up support for incumbent Vancouver Island North candidate John Duncan.'
    11 04 24 pitcher
    Just in visiting my brother in this riding and was shocked at the support for the ND. The yare coming from behind slow out of the gate but they have the BIG MO a visit by Harper speaks volumes.
    11 04 24 Richard H
    John has an excellent record in this riding with a good margin last time. There are, of course, some people who think otherwise.
    I have attended a number of functions where John has spoken and responded to questions. I was impressed at his responses to some tough ones when he pointed out that things were much more complicated than the questioner expected.
    His appointment as a minister may keep him away from the island more often. His ministry fits well for VIN. As a minister he may have more clout with other ministries than before.
    The other party candidates don't seem to have riding-wide experience and that could hurt.
    The Conservatives seem to be holding their percentage of vote and may have a chance of a majority with vote splitting in some other ridings.
    11 04 17 Roger N
    While I voted NDP last time, the local riding has been caught horribly unprepared, and the candidate is playing too much catch-up. I'm voting Liberal. Holland is an improvement over the last Liberal. My read is actually a few more votes for Liberal, a few less for the NDP and so in the end, whether I like it or not, it will be a Conservative win. At least John Duncan isn't a bad candidate like Stockwell Day or Guergis might have been. If the Liberals weren't such an Eastern party they might have a shot. Oh well.
    11 04 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Okay that Liberal prediction was just silly. If compelled to make decision we would say that the CPC will hold it but we are not compelled to and the election is not over yet. If the NDP support rises a few percentage points above '08 in BC (they are more or less tied with what they got in '08) then this one will likely swing back to the NDP. Hasn't happened yet.
    11 04 15 Bob Gray
    Anybody who thinks the Libs have a prayer in this riding is smoking something illegal. Especially with Mike Holland running. I've been a conservative all my life, and even I would vote NDP before I'd vote for Holland. He's a TRUE liberal, in the grand old Trudeau Tradition.. stands for nothing, will say or do anything to gain a vote, and would throw his own campaign manager under the bus if it meant a chance to go to Ottawa. The NDP will give it a great shot, but colour this one Tory Blue.
    11 04 15 burlivespipe
    Does anyone know someone who would admit to liking Duncan? His track record has been trashed locally, he refuses to campaign beyond the set-up situations ala Harper, and he's had horseshoes in the past. His one break was when his arch nemesis from the NdP decided to hang 'em up. But now he's got Holland to contend with, who's got a well-regarded track record of listening to people. Ok, so this is my longshot call, but the Liberals have some good people on the ground here, including a few key NdP defections... So now the next question you're going to ask is, what's in burlivespipe?
    11 04 14 Sushihunter
    Fisherman on 11 04 05 indicates that ‘John Duncan has taken a principled stance, holding to science, conservation, factual analysis and due process rather than bowing to rabble rousing.’
    This could not be further from the truth.
    The Halibut Allocation issue has NOTHING to do with Conservation. The International Halibut Commission sets the Total Allowable Catch (TAC) for Canada, and the entire west coast from Alaska to California.
    The issue at hand is the allocation of the Canadian TAC between Commercial fishermen and Sports Fishermen. This was set at 88%/12% Com/Sport a number of years ago by a Liberal Fisheries Minister.
    The political math that Mr. Duncan seems to ignore at his peril is that there are a total of 436 Commercial Halibut fishermen who own quota all across BC. I would be surprized if there were 50 in Vancouver Island North who could vote for Mr. Duncan. Contering that is 300,000 licensed Sports fishermen. 10,000 of which could easily be in Mr. Duncan's riding.
    Duncan's margin of victory in 2008 was only 2,500 votes. Only 1300 of those votes need to go NDP or Liberal for Duncan to lose his seat in Parliament.
    The question now is are there enough Conservatives who want a Majority government who will stick with Duncan in hopes of a bigger prize.
    11 04 13 Shop Owner
    This is really an odd campaign here in Campbell River. The Conservatives, Liberals and Greens are running very traditional campaigns with signs going up in the usual public places and ads in the usual papers etc, but the NDP has all but vanished. Other than a few (and I do mean a few) signs in the yards of individuals, they have absolutely no presence in town. Every key public space in town has two big signs (Con and Lib) and a small sign (Green) and a gap where the NDP should be. Purely guesswork on my part, but is it possible that the NDP has written off this riding and is pouring their resources into ridings in which they have a chance? If that is not the case, then the NDP candidate (I honestly cannot even remember her name, such is her lack of presence) should consider changing campaign managers!!
    11 04 10 Fisherman
    John Duncan has a delicate balancing act on fisheries issues in Vancouver Island North, with fishermen, sports fishermen, natives, environmentalists and fish farmers all present in numbers, and having somewhat different interests and approaches. Nevertheless, he has managed to be supportive in one way or another, to all of these constituencies over the years- no mean feat! The latest brushfire centers around a recently active campaign by the sports fishing lodge and charter sector to appropriate access to depressed halibut stocks from traditional users of the resource. Duncan has taken a principled stance, holding to science, conservation, factual analysis and due process rather than bowing to rabble rousing.
    11 04 05 M. Lunn
    This has been a very tight race in the past three elections and likely will again even without Catherine Bell running again. The reason for this is you have Comox which has a large retirement community thus fairly conservative as well as Courtenay, Campbell River, Port McNeil, and Port Hardy which all lean Conservative. By contrast the smaller centres due to the large forestry industry tend to vote heavily NDP and thus the swing vote seems rather small and if anything it seems to be more a question of whether the Liberals will gain or lose votes and who they will go to or at whose expense.
    11 04 02 Sushihunter
    Conservative John Duncan is going to have a fight on his hands to retain Vancouver Island North for the Conservatives.
    His thin margin in 2008 was primarily due to a strong campaign team behind him, something he has not had over past elections relying mainly on the coattails of the party leader.
    I don't think the Carson situation will have much influence here, but what could doom Duncan to defeat is the Sport Fishing Halibut Quota issue. Duncan has refused to take the side of BC's Sport Fishing community instead siding with the powerfull Commercial Fishing lobby.
    The Sports Fishing Community is greatly angered and now organizing to defeat candidates they see working against their interests. Duncan being their number one target for retirement.
    As Sport Fishing, and Halibut fishing is important on the North Island, this could be Duncan's undoing as an MP in the next government. There are 426 Commercial Halibut fishermen in all of BC, and thousands of Sports Fishermen in Duncan's riding which includes fishing meccas of Campbell River, Port Hardy, Winter Harbour, Tahsis, Zeballos, Nootka Sound, etc. We live, breath, and eat sport fishing here.
    The NDP have been traditionally strong here due to forestry and mining. The Liberals seem to have a strong campaigner in their chosen candidate. Too early to tell which one of them will take the lead in challenging Duncan for the seat.
    11 03 28 binriso
    CPC support does not seem as strong in BC as 2008 and even if their MP is the incumbent it should be a close race with the NDP. Though the Greens may gain some support due to May running just down the island which hurts the NDP a bit.
    11 03 18 Marco Ricci
    will Conservative MP John Duncan's possible involvement in the Bruce Carson scandal and RCMP investigation harm his chances at re-election? This may give the NDP an opening to win here, even without Catherine Bell as their candidate.
    11 01 27 Marco Ricci
    The recent departure of former MP Catherine Bell as the NDP candidate makes this riding harder for the NDP to win. Conservative MP John Duncan is probably feeling a little better now than he was a few months ago. However, the fact that Duncan was defeated 2 elections ago shows there is a strong NDP vote in this riding and that the Conservatives still can't take it for granted. We will need to see the polling strength of the parties in the next election to make a conclusion.
    11 01 26 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    While we think the recent change from TCTC to CPC may be a little premature, the resignation of Catherine Bell as NDP candidate is a blow to their party. John Duncan's promotion to cabinet also helps his prospects. Not totally certain but leaning CPC now.
    10 06 16 Mark R
    The Conservatives peaked in the last election and the furor over the HST will be a big negative for them. If Bell runs again, this will flip back to the NDP.
    09 10 13 R.O.
    This seat has been a close race the last 3 elections and flipped between the conservatives and ndp during that time. the main 2 candidates have stayed the same during all of this with John Duncan being the conservative candidate and Catherine Bell being the ndp candidate. John Duncan has the advantage of being part of the incumbent government not something this riding usually is a part of so that should help him. and he has been mp for a while so he is well known in the riding by now and is now a parliamentary secretary in the conservative government. there is considerable ndp support in the riding but there polling less than last election so without a gain in the polls there unlike to win many new seats especially ones held by longtime mp's. and the conservatives are polling strong out west and lead in bc so that has to be put into account as well.
    09 10 05 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Should this election become a referendum on the HST this will very likely fall back to the NDP. If not then the CPC have a great chance at keeping it. TCTC until well into the election.
    09 09 05 MF
    This riding is hardly safe for the Conservatives. The NDP last time was more or less the same as in '06, but the Liberals dropped to fourth place and 4% of the vote, most of their vote went Tory. The Tories are almost certainly going to be losing support in BC this time, and this could easily go back to the NDP.
    09 08 27 wyatt
    Duncan will hold here. 2,500 is a nice little margin, and historically, he's been the MP for a better part of a decade (even as a member of the Reform and Alliance). It won't be a runaway, but he'll hang on.
    09 08 26 JJ
    Should be in the TCTC column. With a strong candidate and NDP surge in BC, this will be one of the first ridings the NDP could win in BC. However, the CPC also have been winning this riding since the 1990's, with the exception of a blip in 2006. Definitely too close to call at this time.

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