Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-03-23 00:07:00

Constituency Profile


Aglukkaq, Leona

Hicks, Jack

MacCallum, Scott

Okalik, Paul

Hon. Leona Aglukkaq

Previous Prediction/result

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  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 05 01 Marco Ricci
    Looks like the Liberals are going to miss their opportunity to take back this seat, even with the former Premier running. The consolation for the Liberals though is that it looks like they will beat the NDP here:
    Project Democracy poll:
    CON: 71.4
    LIB: 20.4
    NDP: 8.2
    11 04 29 WAC
    Project Democracy's poll today Aglukkaq at over 70% - so I think she's safe.
    11 04 29 Bernard von Schulmann
    A poll is out and it has a huge lead for the Conservatives
    Leona Aglukkaq Conservative - 71.4%
    Paul Okalik Liberal - 20.4%
    Jack Hicks NDP - 8.2
    400 respondents +-4.85% at the 95% level
    11 04 10 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    Elections up here are much more about personality than politics. Okalik is just not as popular as some think; being Premier here is a different thing, with the Legislature being 100% Independent (no parties) and picking the Premier. It is not like elections south of 60 where the Premier is the leader of the largest party. The MP, it seems, has more personality pull than the former Premier.
    11 04 08
    Leona Aglukkaq has been praised in the media for her role as Health Minister during the H1N1 crisis and she has brought national attention to Nunavut. Let's not forget she is the incumbent in an incumbent government -- and incumbency plays a vital role in Nunavut. Okalik may be the former premier of Nunavut, but Aglukkaq is now a popular incumbent. Plus, Harper has focused on the North, which will play well here. Conservatives will hold this.
    11 04 06 Guy Concordia
    Leona Aglukkaq only won by a relatively slim margin in 2008 and has not exactly been a stellar minister. With Paul Okalik as the Liberal candidate, this riding goes back to the Liberals.
    11 04 06 JC
    Looks like we have a major challenger here, Paul Okalik the former premier of Nunavut is running against Leona. This is not going to be as sewn up as people think.
    11 04 06 PolObserver
    Now with Paul Okalik, Nunavut's first premier, is the now vying to become the Liberal Party's member of Parliament in the territory. This is definately too close to call.
    11 04 05 M. Lunn
    Was a tight three way race last time around, but with Leona Aglukkaq being the minister of health and considering how often this riding is ignored, I suspect it will be pretty tough for either the NDP or Liberals to pick this up especially since neither has chosen their candidates. I will await for the others to chose their candidate, but unless the choose a strong challenger this should stay Tory despite its centre-left leanings.
    11 04 02 J Keller
    Hold. Canada's first aboriginal health minister will not be defeated even if Harper was way down in the polls. However, this is the only Con seat in the Far North. Contrary to propaganda, Yukon and NWT will not go to Harper.
    11 03 22 binriso
    2-3 way race, I think the NDP has the better chance of winning than the Liberals and the Conservatives did not win by much last time, though they do have the early advantage.
    11 02 01 Gladstone
    Leona Aglukkaq will gain a great deal here from her cabinet post, and she's a sure thing as long as Harper is leading in the polls. If he isn't, a Liberal candidate would start looking more attractive.
    09 09 06 Stevo
    Perhaps Aqlukkaq's win here woke people to the fact that for starters, the Inuit are NOT Aboriginals (at least not in the legal/political sense of the word in this country) and have a very different history and political culture than the Aboriginals and Metis of Southern Canada. Conservatism does not offend here, and the Inuit no doubt appreciate Stephen Harper putting the spotlight on the North as never before. Call me crazy, but I actually can imagine Aglukkaq winning by landslide proportions in the next election - 45-50%. Even if she doesn't manage such numbers, she'll win nonetheless.
    09 09 05 Mike G
    I can't see Leona losing this seat. It is not often that the far north gets such a high ranking cabinet minister. That alone should carry her to victory.
    09 09 01 Nick J Boragina
    Bear and Ape are right (I better get used to saying that again!) this is not a party race but a candidates race; and its very hard to beat a sitting cabinet minister with that in mind. Harper's move will win him every riding in the territory. Sadly, there is only one riding in the territory, this one, which he will win in a landslide.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    The Tories will hold Nunavut. They want to gain in the North, not lose what they have, and will put a lot of effort in here. Aglukkaq is well known in both federal and territorial politics, and comes off very well on camera.
    09 08 23 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    This isn't (nor ever has been) a Liberal riding. Nor is it now (or ever will be) a Conservative riding. It is a who-is-the-most-liked-and-respected-candidate riding. That means this is a Leona Aglukkaq, a woman who has brought some very badly needed decorum, dignity and class to the Conservative caucas (and to the House of Commons as a whole). She's done a good job in her position, she is very well respected amongst her community. Couple that with the Harper government's interest in the north and Leona is a shoe-in.
    09 08 23
    Leona Aglukkaq is a high profile MP with her experience in local and federal politics. Her plum and prominent position as Health Minister strengthens her hold on this riding because she is at the forefront of important health issues such as her lauded handling of the H1N1 crisis. Also, the Harper government has been investing and putting a lot of focus on Nunavut and the Arctic.
    09 08 23 Observer
    3 way race. Conservatives barely won in 2008 with a close Liberal runner-up and a strong performance by the NDP. This riding is one of the most volatile in the country because party allegiance don't work in this vast and disperse constituency. Anyway, Cabinet profile gives Conservative candidate, Leona Aglukkaq (Minister of Health), a slim advantage.
    09 08 20 R.O.
    history tells us that this is a liberal riding but reality tells me its now a conservative riding as Leona Aglukkaq is a rising star in Ottawa and even a cabinet minister. the previous ndp and liberal candidates who made strong runs here last election have also announced that there not running again meaning both those parties need new candidates . and harper spent an entire day here and they even held a cabinet meeting in the riding and made several big announcements related to economic development in the riding.

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