Election Prediction Project

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Holborn and St Pancras

Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 09:25:05

Constituency Profile

Labour Party
Frank Dobson
Conservative Party
George Lee
Iain Meek
Liberal Democrats
Joanna Shaw
John Chapman
UK Independence Party
Maxine Spencer
English Democrats Party
Mikel Susperregi
Green Party
Natalie Bennett
British National Party
Robert Carlyle

Rt Hon Frank Dobson
Holborn & St Pancras (100 %)
Glenda Jackson
Hampstead & Highgate (24.7 %)


Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus


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10 04 23
A fairly safe Labour seat, although with the Lib Dem surge this must be open to some question. Probably one to call closer to election night.
Background from a local website:
The seat is currently held by London's longest-serving MP, Frank Dobson. The Labour MP was elected to Holborn and St Pancras South in 1979, and has continued in the redrawn seat of Holborn and St Pancras since 1983. The consitituency is regarded as a typically representative Labour seat, with 47.5% of residents living in social housing and a large number of full-time students. However, the last election saw an 11% towards the Liberal Demcrats, and the seat could yet be the site of a major upset.
Dobson started his political life as a Camden borough councillor in 1971, becoming leader of the council in 1973. He served as Secretary of State for Health from 1997 to 1999, and stood as the first Labour candidate for London mayor, finishing third in 2000. Dobson has been critical of the war in Iraq, and proposed an anti-war motion in the House of Commons. Dobson polled 43% of the vote in 2005.
His closest popponent in this election is the Liberal Democrat candidate Jo Shaw. A barrister working in family law, housing and employment. Shaw lives in Kentish Town and is particularly passionate about issues connected to health and education. She is part of the Whittington A&E campaign and opposes plans to privatise GP clinics in Camden. Shaw is also a volunteer at Kentish Town Citizen's Advice Bureau, and is campaigning to keep the service open across the Camden area. The Libs will be hoping to improve on their 29.3% share of the vote in the lat election.
The Conservatives typically poll under 20% in the Holborn and St Pancras constituency, but Hong-Kong born George Lee hopes to turn that record around this year. Lee joined the Ministry of Defence as a civil servant in 1979, before becoming one of the first British Chinese recruits in the Metropolitan Police. Lee aims to deliver positive change to Holborn and St Pancras, and believes the role of politics is to help people fulfill their promise, whatever their social background or race.

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